Taylor Wimpey Share Discussion Threads

[jugears] 18/3/2020 17:02

WFL1970- MCS are not house builders, they build luxury & very extortionately priced retirement apartments beyond the realm of most of us. Don't no much about the company but have not been in very good financial health for some time I believe .I know they have been struggling to shift apartment In 2 blocks near me, one of which was completed 3-4 years ago & is still half empty.

[gbh2] 18/3/2020 16:51

I think/hope TW will pay the first divi but I expect the special to disappear.

[jugears] 18/3/2020 16:28

clark5150- Sorry took a bit of a chance there but if you don't test the market you never find out, not convinced that it would work every day but whilst we have these heavy swings from morning to evening its worth having a go. Just hope my long term views aren't changing!

[clarky5150] 18/3/2020 16:22

Good finish to the day. Probably your 25k sell that took the shine off it lol. I can’t recall the last time we finished near or better than the FTSE performance.

[steeplejack] 18/3/2020 16:13

A friend of mine in the antiques business has just emailed to say that a wealthy dealer who lives in a city of 20 million near Shanghai believes that the virus in China may have run its course.Two new hospitals are empty and people are back on the streets.

[jugears] 18/3/2020 16:08

Bought 25k this morning to test the market & traded them tonight Something I never do but when you see a share price so ridiculously low you have to take advantage, Whilst I do not normally trade shares so quickly or at all for that matter I am pleased with my daily return & may start doing this on a daily basis until the markets settles enough for me to invest my final lump sum in TW permanently. I have noticed that there seems to be a more confident tone from my customers today.

[uknighted] 18/3/2020 15:49

Showing your age now clarky!

[clarky5150] 18/3/2020 15:47

So technically then they are one a penny, two a penny hot cross buns.

[uknighted] 18/3/2020 15:43

Yes it’s getting silly. Tesco Finest hot crossed buns are marked as 2 for 1 but customers are limited to just I packet!!

[smurfy2001] 18/3/2020 15:38

WRT supermarkets need to get in at say 9am otherwise by tea time otherwise shelves are empty.

[porsche1945] 18/3/2020 15:34

There wont be a housing shortage after this haha and it was over hyped anyway, with the brexit fiasco huge numbers of europeans are leaving anyway, unemployment was rising and the economy slowing even before the virus thanks to the brexit mess and endless elections, the government will have to pull the help to sell scheme as no money now and these will be back to where they were in 08, .25p. Dividend likely suspended.

[wfl1970] 18/3/2020 15:30

Once there is some sort of clarity on the extent of the impact from Covid-19... The impact of the economic impact will be some way off... No one knows when that will be.

I've already heard of jobs going... And it's not any sector specific.

As ever, the UK seems to be lagging behind on any meaningful strategy.

[dr_smith] 18/3/2020 14:34

Steeplejack.
A loong but interesting post. (My posts can be long - so not a criticism ;-) )
On Trusts, I don't use them as they have to invest in a pre-defined mixed basket, that can often incude dead wood.
I think you are right re Trust investors wanting a cash cushion and call on Trusts with a pre-defined mix means they are obligated to sell pro rata. Much of the price drop is therefore not lost value in co's but a call on liquidity.

On UK/FTSE being toppy (as US) has been a topic for many years.
It is to big a topic for here, but I find indices a poor comparitor, as they are made up a changing aggregate and don't factor in inflation or that the internet has been a leveller, taking much turnover from the big boys to many smaller entities.

That aside, with regard to HB's - and are they toppy, the pre CV share price relative to EPS show the share price to be good, even quite favourable, not toppy at all, despite recent ATH's across the sector. Other sectors,well each have their own story, but since Brexit talks started I have been overweight in HB's as the port in the storm and housing shortage is the over-riding constant.
We may choose not to go holiday (travel co's) or whether we buy new car/white goods etc, or spend less on them, but we all have to live somewhere and on an Island at that, so HB's are a brick solid for medium term on.
In short term.. has all bad news been priced in???
No yardstick available.
My strategy is to hold for known medium term rather than sell for short term liquidity.

IMO
Dave

[steeplejack] 18/3/2020 14:02

Totally agree about the press. The motto appears to be "if you can't bring bad news,don't bring any".It's all about the headline sucking you in.

[steeplejack] 18/3/2020 13:40

AIM is a good deal more maverick The MMS can meaningfully fiddle around with the price,'shake the tree' to make weak holders nervous and force the price down to trigger stop losses in illiquid markets.I suspect that's what you're alluding to.

[m4rtinu] 18/3/2020 13:32

Steeple #228. For someone as ignorant as me, of the ways of stock trading and market making, that was an instructive post. Does the same apply to AIM where buying/selling ratios do not always correspond with share price movements?

[tradejunkie2] 18/3/2020 13:21

Shocked this is over a 100p !!

[jugears] 18/3/2020 13:15

At least is cheaper at the pumps, fuel is my biggest single expense.

[clarky5150] 18/3/2020 12:55

And obviously Arabia happily producing oil flat out to the point where they are running out of storage and have stated they will drive the price to zero if need be in this oil war with Russia isn't helping matters. Who's gonna buy it, cruise companies, airlines...err,no.
So thanks for all your help in steadying world markets.

[wfl1970] 18/3/2020 12:35

Unfortunately, it's not all they spread...

[clarky5150] 18/3/2020 12:25

Article in one of the tabloids two days ago was emblazoned '21 year old professional footballer dies of Coronavirus' only by half way through the article did they state he was actually a coach at Malaga with a players licence, who had untreated leukaemia!
The press never have been taken to task over their blatant scaremongering and probably never will. In the meantime the Jeremy Kylers keep spreading the word.

[pawsche] 18/3/2020 11:39

@michaelbinary - 17 Mar '20 - 18:23 - 25216

I cant get my head around this nonsense.
"The modelling projected that if the UK did nothing, 81% of people would be infected and 510,000 would die from coronavirus by August."

"The mitigation strategy is better, but would still result in about 250,000 deaths and completely overwhelm intensive care in the NHS."

So,
China has had the virus since the begining, they now have the growth curve under control. With 1.5 billion people they have had abount 80,000 cases with 3226 deaths.
Even allowing for the reported chinese numbers to be a little bit creative, they are 3 months further into the curve than Europe, so why havent they got 1 million dead by now and 500 million people infected etc ?.

Probably because the modelling and prediction is still being done by the geniuses that produced the figures for the previous few "Millions Will Die" pandemics. Just as a reminder of how ludicrously inaccurate they were:-

For the UK:
SARS – 4 cases, zero deaths. (NHS figures)
Avian Flu – 75,000 deaths predicted, actual deaths = zero. (NHS)
Swine Flu – 3,100 to 65,000 deaths predicted, actual deaths = 138 from 540,000 reported cases (0.026%). (NHS).
BSE was going to cause “millions of deaths”, actually 178 deaths from NvCJD. (NHS).

On the basis that (in England & Wales 2018) on average 1,480 people died every day, Covid-19 isn’t even a rounding error yet. Frankly, I suspect that it may never become statistically significant in the UK – despite the media’s best efforts to convince everyone to panic further. Today’s “shock headline” – "Britains youngest coronavirus death”, some poor chap of 49, it only mentions in passing that he was suffering from Motor Neurone Disease!!!