Tanfield Share Discussion Threads

[m.t.glass] 18/11/2014 08:09

It craftily alters the trigger. Instead of having to wait for the annualised figure to be confirmed, (eg, by a run of months that indicate achievement of curve) as previously planned, a one-month figure in line with it will be considered good enough.

(edited 8:14am)

[multiplural] 18/11/2014 08:00

Molatovkid, you found the most interesting part in todays release. When Snorkel hits any month woth a 2,08 M Ebitda the trigger sets in. The model is that the first 19% is paid by the note issued (50M$) and the remaining 30% is paid at 5,5 times Ebitda Which will be a minimum of further 41,25M$ or a total of minimum 91,25 M$ or some 39p per share. If Snorkel is doing 150M turnover in 2015, that would be an average of 12,5M$ per month, peek months would probably be double this. To make a 2,08M$ ebitda in a month seems almost certain before the fall of 2015. Tan is a very good buy here imo.
Remember the risk for Don Ahern is to wait too long, as there might be a month with a 3,5M Ebitda releasing a total pay of 119M$ or some 50p per Tan share

[evil_doctor_facilier] 18/11/2014 07:48

Great call on QPP mt,thanks for all you valuable in depth research.
You must be so proud.

[molatovkid] 18/11/2014 07:45

Forgive my ignorance guys but can anyone explain:

Realisation of investment:

Following the disposal of 51% of the Snorkel business in 2013, the trigger event for the realisation of the Snorkel investment occurs when the company has achieved an annualised trailing EBITDA of $25 million dollars, this is represented by an EBITDA of just over $2 million in any month.

>>>

From this I assume that if Snorkel hits the annualised trailing ebitda of $25m that they can buy out Tanfields holding ?

Is this correct?

AND

How close are Snorkel to achieving this ?

[vauch] 18/11/2014 07:22

26p a share better than I thought and could double in a year. I may add in this one now things have settled.

[jam2day] 17/11/2014 22:26

Multi lets see how long it takes for the knockers to reply.
I agree very positive:-
Ahern Rentals received an increase of $100 million to its revolving line of credit, CEO Don Ahern told RER. With the increase to its existing line, Ahern Rentals now has $425 million in its credit facility. The lead bank on the credit facility is Bank of America, and JP Morgan is playing a substantial role as well.
Part of which could be used to purchase the remaining 49%

[multiplural] 17/11/2014 19:38

Surprised that there have not been more reaction to the very positive article on Snorkel. I know it was buried by a number of quick posts from people who want as little as possible positivity around Tanfield, so I repost:

[multiplural] 17/11/2014 08:55

As for the layoffs in the UK, I believe most is seasonal and quite usual.

[pcid] 17/11/2014 08:40

> Snorkel profitable in 2015. Revenue 100M 50% growth expected in 2015.

That does sound a lot more positive. Perhaps the negative comments were designed to reduce the impact of laying off staff in the UK.

The article also indicates why customers did not have confidence in Snorkel / Tanfield - they were unable to supply spare parts for Snorkel equipment out in the field.

Good news with SEV as well. Pleased to hear that they will resume production in January. A stock market listing for an electric truck company without production is not very useful....

[m.t.glass] 17/11/2014 08:37

That closing paragraph sounds a bit like "Don't blame us - blame Smith. We are doing our best to bring home some money but Smith have pushed the dates further away again".

[m.t.glass] 17/11/2014 08:33

longer version of that includes refernce to the previously mentioned postponement of Smith's nex US floatation attempt:



Tanfield Group PLC Smith Investment Update
Print
Alert
TIDMTAN

RNS Number : 1448X

Tanfield Group PLC

17 November 2014

Tanfield Group PLC

Smith Investment update

The Board of Tanfield is pleased to update the market on the progress that its investee company Smith Electric Vehicles US has made towards its goal of a public listing on a US exchange.

-- Holding in Smith:Post the conversion of debt Tanfield now holds 5.76% of the equity of Smith (excluding warrants).

-- Value of holding:The value is just under $10.73 million (GBP6.9 million) which represents 5p per share. (Tanfield's other investment, Snorkel, has an estimated value per share of 26p as set out the Company's interim accounts resulting in a combined estimate of value from investments of 31p per share).

-- Warrants: On the closing of the series E funding round the first tranche of Tanfield warrants have become due with an exercise price of $0.31c. The warrants will be exercisable within 6 months of issuance and carry a term of 2 years. In aggregate the total number of warrants to be issued to Tanfield are expected to amount to just over 2% of the issued share capital at the time of the OTCBB listing.

Update:

1. Conversion of Debt to Equity: Smith has closed the Series E round and converted all investment debt to equity.

2. Progress to OTCBB listing: The Board of Smith has decided that a completed audit up to the end of 2014 would be more reflective of the business in its first filings as a merged public company. This audit is expected to be completed in January 2015 and it is anticipated that the completion of the merger with ABSR and filing of the Super 8k (filed 4 days from merger and a requirement to create tradable shares) will follow shortly thereafter.

3. Capital Raise: The Board of Smith anticipates raising additional capital of $20 million to facilitate the ongoing production cost down activities and the plan to restart production in January.

4. Operational update: The Board of Smith have indicated that operational progress has been made including an evolving positive relationship with FDG ( formerly Sinopoly), the Hong Kong listed Electric Vehicle Manufacturer and advances in marketing and business development.

(The Board of Smith have committed to issuing shareholders with a fuller operational update in the near future. The Tanfield Board will make a further announcement on this together with an update on its other investment when it is received.)

Comment

The Tanfield Board takes the view that although all the signs are very positive and the fact that significant debt holders have now converted their debt to equity, thus sharing the risk with all other shareholders; there still remains an element of risk that the Smith Board will not succeed in its plan or achieve the indicative timescale. It considers that it has sought to fulfil its obligation to its shareholders in seeking to optimise the value on its investment in Smith. The Board will endeavour to return value to shareholders as soon as practically possible.

[orange1] 17/11/2014 08:25

17 November 2014

Tanfield Group PLC

Smith Investment update

The Board of Tanfield is pleased to update the market on the progress that its investee company Smith Electric Vehicles US has made towards its goal of a public listing on a US exchange.

-- Holding in Smith:Post the conversion of debt Tanfield now holds 5.76% of the equity of Smith (excluding warrants).

-- Value of holding:The value is just under $10.73 million (GBP6.9 million) which represents 5p per share. (Tanfield's other investment, Snorkel, has an estimated value per share of 26p as set out the Company's interim accounts resulting in a combined estimate of value from investments of 31p per share).

-- Warrants: On the closing of the series E funding round the first tranche of Tanfield warrants have become due with an exercise price of $0.31c. The warrants will be exercisable within 6 months of issuance and carry a term of 2 years. In aggregate the total number of warrants to be issued to Tanfield are expected to amount to just over 2% of the issued share capital at the time of the OTCBB listing.

[m.t.glass] 17/11/2014 08:02

Sounding a lot more positive than Ahern himself sounded just a few days ago.

[multiplural] 17/11/2014 06:57

Snorkel profitable in 2015. Revenue 100M 50% growth expected in 2015. Ahern adds to credit facility to take care of opportunities going forward.
Now if this is not a good indication on a coming Snorkel acquisition , I have never seen one :-) .

[multiplural] 16/11/2014 01:17

You are completely right. I think that Don Aherns messages is a bit flawed though, his business is boomong and I am quite sure he is more than happy to have connected with Snorkel. Dont be surprised to see a move from him soon.

[m.t.glass] 15/11/2014 18:34

So, Don Ahern tells us that Snorkel's recovery is not as certain as some here have suggested, and the latest Smith plans have been postponed.

neither of which Tanfield can do anything about... except wait.

[multiplural] 15/11/2014 00:06

So it seems that public presence for Smith have been postponed to January 2015, but with production restart at the same time. This is coming from update to shareholders in Smith sent out today.
As always things are just taking soo long, but direction is right, and FDG are onboard.

[m.t.glass] 13/11/2014 08:57

I am flattered that you follow my postings and consider them important enough to spend your time talking about ;o)

It's very sweet of you.

That March 20th post of mine that offends you was followed by a share price rise of 25% in 3 weeks. A wonderful opportunity. Alert active traders will have made good money that month - and will have made even greater fortune betting downward on part of the huge slide that followed thereafter.

When the story changes the active trader nimbly changes tack - betting upwards on the upslopes and downwards on the downslopes, with automated stops and contingent orders in place to limit damage from, or benefit from, sharp reversals. And with stakes balanced to ensure that unpleasant gap-reversals have minimal effect on their overall portfolio.

As someone who makes his living from exploiting momentum, a lot of the stocks I follow are sporty ones that can crash and burn. I am well aware of this. Many of the shares I've made great gains from have since collapsed. I jump ship whenever it suits me to do so. Likewise many of the shares I've shorted and made gains from have subsequently bounced back. That's OK. It is my own money I am risking, not yours. I have never advised anyone to buy or to sell any stock. We are each responsible for our own decisions.

I didn't ban you for commenting on my QPP postings - merely for doing so, three times over, on a thread related to another stock altogether, where I had politely invited you to comment on that stock.

Contrary to your opening post above, I have made no attempt to "wipe away" any past contributions to threads on QPP and other stocks - my posts, right calls and wrong calls, remain on view on the relevant threads, to be either applauded or scoffed at by whoever wishes to do so.

There are more than 44,000 Advfn bb posts by me, going back more than 14 years. Among them will be thousands of good calls, and thousands of bad calls. If you wish to sift through all 44,000 listing all the bad calls, be my guest - everyone needs a hobby ;o)

PS: As this thread so clearly targets me (MTG), and specifically my postings on Quindell (QPP), it seems less than bright to give it the ticker TAN, under which it will only be found by the handful of people researching an ex-engineering minnow.

[evil_doctor_facilier] 13/11/2014 07:50

There are many more, but you get the general idea.

[evil_doctor_facilier] 12/11/2014 18:04

two gems.



M.T.Glass - 13 Mar 2014 - 09:21:23 - 9020 of 28051
QPP remains one of the main items in my portfolio of stocks.


M.T.Glass - 07 Mar 2014 - 10:18:12 - 8323 of 28051
bagpuss - numerous broker targets quoted and searchable. My own expectation is roughly 55p by this Easter, 90p by Xmas, 120p next Easter ;o)
--------------------------------------------
it's 6p today.

[m.t.glass] 12/11/2014 17:42

Again, not relevant to TAN - hence removed.

[m.t.glass] 12/11/2014 17:17

Not me Evil - you are either mis-remembering someone else's input as mine, or mischievously making it up for some reason. Either way it is nothing to do with this thread.

Got anything to say that is relevant to Tanfield?