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AVCT Avacta Group Plc

0.20 (0.15%)
Last Updated: 16:20:19
Delayed by 15 minutes
Share Name Share Symbol Market Type Share ISIN Share Description
Avacta Group Plc LSE:AVCT London Ordinary Share GB00BYYW9G87 ORD 10P
  Price Change % Change Share Price Shares Traded Last Trade
  0.20 0.15% 135.00 1,141,031 16:20:19
Bid Price Offer Price High Price Low Price Open Price
134.00 136.00 135.00 133.50 134.50
Industry Sector Turnover Profit EPS - Basic PE Ratio Market Cap
Pharmaceutical Preparations 0.0000 - 382.88M
Last Trade Time Trade Type Trade Size Trade Price Currency
16:28:45 O 3,700 135.00 GBX

Avacta (AVCT) Latest News

Avacta (AVCT) Discussions and Chat

Avacta (AVCT) Most Recent Trades

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Avacta (AVCT) Top Chat Posts

Top Posts
Posted at 21/11/2023 12:02 by vertizeasun
21 November

Myles McNulty
12 sessions on from the below post on #AVCT. Only another 18 sessions until what most would consider the end of 'active trading' for the year (Christmas shutdown).

has assured us that the #AVA6000 P1a study completes in Q4, and that data will also be announced in Q4. We will be receiving at least one major RNS over the next 3 weeks or so.

With regards to the near-term share price movement, I think there are two key catalysts in particular that could drive a substantial and sustained rerate.

The data itself is not one of them. The large majority of investors already know that the platform works, that doxorubicin is being delivered to solid tumors by the pre | CISION substrate with astonishing specificity, which is resulting in dramatically reduced side effects in comparison to standard doxorubicin.

No. What will (most likely) drive a mega share price rerating are:

1) Stories of efficacy covered by mainstream media
MSM wants to write of terminally ill patients experiencing substantial tumor shrinkage. Of possible cures for cancer. Avacta has had many months to prepare for this period. Get one or two patient case studies from the P1a trial in the mainstream news, and interest in the stock will rocket.

2) Out-licensing deal with big upfront cash payment
Mgmt has specifically stated that it is prioritizing non-dilutive sources of finance. Whilst a sale of
is a possibility (and in fact, a probable outcome in the relatively near-term, IMO), a more likely nearer-term solution would be an out-license deal for #AVA6000, for certain geographies and/or indications. Such a deal would not only bolster the balance sheet, and possibly see the Company all the way through to accelerated approval of 6K for soft tissue sarcoma in the US... but would also represent a major validation of pre | CISION by Big Pharma.

All my research and discussions lead me to believe that we will see both of these materializing in the near future.

Outsiders should not be primarily focusing on the mkt cap of AVCT relative to other junior biotechs on the LSE.

Rather, they should be considering it against the possible market size of a best-in-class targeted delivery platform for therapeutics to solid tumors ($200bn pa?), in tandem with the wide and deep moat that AVCT enjoys through its patents and global exclusive licenses over the pre | CISION technology.

My faith in the approach of a truly legendary share price rerating, is stronger than ever.
Posted at 14/11/2023 09:17 by amanitaangelicus
Tickboo ,how.s your share sales? Did ya get em done? Funny isnt it. Great news ahead, share price falls. What could it be? Financing for me. How much will Smith give away is the only question. Odd share price movements if not this.Anyway, back my coffee in the warmish breeze. Nice. GLA.
Posted at 07/11/2023 09:47 by vertizeasun
Myles McNulty
Wonderful Tweet on #AVCT 👌👏

Big move northwards in the share price has commenced, despite both IG's and Numis' best efforts last week!

I think the share price moves steadily up with or without news up to 6K data publication, but a few items that could land at any moment to supercharge the share price lift could be:

- #AVA6000 out-licensing deal, for a particular indication and/or in a particular geography (for ovarian, breast, etc.; or e.g. for all indications in China only?).

- #AVA3996 out-licensing deal

- Substrate out-licensing deal

- In-licensing of, or JV for, a novel super-powerful small molecule warhead (e.g. MMAE) to be combined with our substrate


- Private placement with one or a handful of US biotech specialist investors

- AVA6000 Phase 1a Part 2 (bi-weekly dosing) getting greenlight from FDA, and first patient dosed at MSK or FH (this could be imminent)

What a time to be invested in
Posted at 07/11/2023 07:42 by rajraj b
From RAH on X this morning. #AVCT is poised. Pharma is a hive of activity right now and we have a repeat, size buyer systematically taking stock, rendering Heights redundant. The climate is such that Point's largest holder is now opposing the Eli Lilly deal as they believe it undervalues them: As we saw recently, this Point deal had THREE interested suitors. It is possible a rival bid now comes in and/or more shareholders oppose the transaction. [Reminder: retail control @avacta] Then there's Merck and Prometheus. On 6 Dec 2022 - Prometheus released results of two P2 (12-week) studies Their share price went from $36 > $117 in a day. Off the back of this data they raised $500m (Dec 22). Just four months after that raise (Apr 2023) they were bought out for $10.8Bn ($193 per share). How many interested suitors were there in this $10.8Bn deal? FIFTEEN. What was so attractive to these 15 rivals? An estimated $3Bn sales per year to be achieved in 2030. Harnessing Dox is a far more valuable target than each of these and it comes far sooner than 2030. Plus we have proven a platform which underpins it all. If there were FIFTEEN parties vying for est sales of $3Bn in 2030 and willing to pay $10.8Bn for that privilege, what on earth is a platform which could displace ADCs worth? On top of all this, the MSCI Small Cap rebalance is due to take place shortly. When AVCT dropped out a year ago, it registered 20x avg daily volume in a single session (during an auction which was meant to last 5 minutes, but was extended for over an hour). What will that do to a stock which is already seeing increased volume combined with a systematic buyer? Expecting the share price to get a real shift on over the coming sessions; ATHs more than justified on release of PK
Posted at 01/11/2023 08:57 by tickboo is a simple drug.PreCISION is a simple delivery mechanism.#AVCT will be given authority to skip P1b by the FDA.AVCT will be given authority to test AVA6000 at c.double the current recommend dose (if we assume they elect a bi-weekly dose at Cohort 4+ levels).By Day 60 pre-clinical, AVA6000 demonstrated clear divergence vs Dox.By Day 40, the difference was noticeable.If you assume dosing bi-weekly vs dosing every 21 days will bring about a quicker impact, we should see clear divergence around Day 50 at the latest, given the bi-weekly dose schedule and equivalent dosage. If not sooner.Therefore, by the third bi-weekly dose (Day 42) one would expect to see clear impact of AVA6000 in the first patient.If you assume the bi-weekly study begins on Jan 1st (I know they say Q4), AVCT will know by Monday 12th Feb how AVA6000 is performing in the initial patients.AACR and ASCO take place in April and May respectively next year. JPM's deal making conference takes place 8-11 Jan.If AVA6000 continues to behave like we know it will (bear in mind they know it works (it shrinks tumours) and they elected bi-weekly rather than weekly dosing because of the toxicity threshold), then the FDA will be in a relatively difficult position, will they not?They'll have a 50 year old drug, which is being delivered safely.By H2, when P2 is due to start they will have 6 months of data which demonstrates how *first line* patients are responding. They will also have 40+ patients from P1a and 30 months of data. 30 months. During which time the share price has risen 10%.I'm well aware AVCT intend Phase 2 as a registrational study and the FDA needs data for statistical significance (AVCT say 6m for statistical significance, which is end 2024) but if the bi-weekly arm performs as we expect, and it's run by Tap, is the FDA really going to wait another 18 months before they consider accelerated approval?Could they? Ethically, when 'all' this drug does is safely delivery a 50-yr old known drug?I think AVCT is playing down their timeline.Especially if that PK data, due in a few weeks, demonstrates consistency.Golden cross today. 136p resistance about to be taken out.
Posted at 17/10/2023 07:36 by loglorry1
Clearly the market maker who is also the provider of the death spiral (or to make tickboo happy the currently inactive death spiral) is happy to walk the price up before a conversion so they can forward sell but how much effect does it have?

Average daily vol last week 4.3m shares for last month 2.66m. Vol today of 1m knocks share price 5% now that the bulls are dissapointed by lack of concrete news. Spike above 100p only possible without persistent selling imo and lots of ramping by the spivs like Myles. Realistically they can only be about 10% of daily vol without really crushing share price. Thus 400K a day sold forward? I doubt they'll get more than the quarterly conversion done but you never know they might flush out a few more.

Once the forward selling to support the coversion done there is absoltuly no need to support the price which is why its falling back unti next time.
Posted at 14/10/2023 13:22 by jaknife

"We will see old chap but the supposed death spiral has not worked out. 1 week of a high share price last week and high volume will surely mean na conversion at the highest possible or nearly 119p and all others very near to that except one which was below the 95p raise price. Come a week we will have paid off over 25% of the loan (overpaid) and we sit over 55% above 95p raise and date yet to come. Hopefully 141p new support."

Every quarterly conversion has been accompanied by a ramp of some description. You can see the spikes in the chart other than for the July one which coincided with an attempted £10m fund raise at 90p a share called "Project Accelerate" that was pulled so that the company could then publish an RNS that accurately stated:

"no fundraising is imminent"

At the time of the RNS these four words were correct because "Project Accelerate" had been pulled just before that RNS was published.

You seem to think that it's reasonable behaviour for a company, in cahoots with a market maker, to deliberately spike its share price in order to sucker in retail punters to buy share at inflated prices. The flip side of course is that, whilst the retail punters are buying their shares at 150p+, the market maker (Susquehanna) is getting those shares at just 118.75p under the death spiral. So it will be bonuses all round at Susquehanna this Christmas, thanks to retail punters buying shares at inflated prices. I had no idea that you were such good friends with market makers!?

Personally I think that deliberately spiking a share price is objectionable because it rips off retail punters. But that's because I am sitting here observing it as it happens. On the other hand, despite it having happened numerous times before, you can't see it and still think that this spike isn't a spike.

Posted at 10/10/2023 10:57 by jaknife

"JK according to tradingview there is accumulation going on in the background."

Let's wait and see what happens in two weeks then after the conversion has taken place.

"There are several MMs on the book and our US friends are not controlling it."

Even though they've obviously done so in the past?

"Your talk of death spiral is comical given the share price has been below the 95p raise price for a couple of weeks in a year."

And it's no coincidence that that period of time was when Avacta launched "Project Accelerate", which was an attempt to raise £10 of fresh equity at 90p a share. The market was left to float freely at that point in time! Prices can be controlled when the volumes are small but not when they are large!

"Also, JK, your logic crazy. If they controlled the price your much talked about death spiral would not happen. In addition if they really were controlling the price they would reduce it ahead of conversion to get more shares and then increase in the weeks following to make even more cash."

Share prices are a confidence game, some would even say a confidence trick. Of course the market makers control the price - that's their job! Let's see if you proposed strategy is what they follow, we only have a couple of weeks to wait!

Posted at 01/10/2023 09:37 by rajraj b current valuation of AVCT share price today is 228p.
Posted at 01/10/2023 08:33 by rajraj b
Ok folks, Q4 2023 has now officially commenced and with it, I believe, a new chapter for AVCT. I feel these next few months will be the most ground breaking this company has ever experienced. Some believe we are being fed a pack of lies by AS and that he has fooled us all ( especially the FDA) into believing the trial is a con with very little if any prospects. To them it's all impossible as it's never been done before. Others believe we are on the cusp of greatness with the world about to discover AVCT has produced powerful game changing chemo with NO side effects AT ALL! If it is all talk with no substance the share price will tank to 15-20p. If, however, it is true and we really do have side-effect-free chemo then what do you suggest is a reasonable share price? I really do not know but assume it's way north of 123pNow that's for AVA6000 on its own. We have been told the PreCision platform has now been verified and it works. What value does that give the company and its share price? More importantly, how critical is it now for large pharmaceutical companies that believe that they need this IP for themselves, if it truly works? There will be a lot of interest amongst the big boys watching from the sidelines. Question is do they wait for more data or do they take plunge asap? Only time will tell. So, take your side 'short' it to your hearts content ( if you thinks it's all nonsense) or similarly go 'long' and even day-trade it (as a high percentage do). Personally, I'm fully invested here and am awaiting news full of confidence that it will be worth the wait. Enjoy your Sunday All
Avacta share price data is direct from the London Stock Exchange

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