Tandem Share Discussion Threads

[rcturner2] 24/6/2022 14:41

CT you are ignoring the elephant in the room which is their end customer is a discretionary purchaser of bikes, golf equipment, garden furniture etc. and those buyers have disappeared. It is getting a lot worse before it gets better.

F me I went past a normal petrol station yesterday at 199p a litre.

[amt] 24/6/2022 14:25

Holding excess stock when there are supply chain issues and high inflation while interest rates are at relatively low levels might not be a bad outcome in these abnormal times

[castleford tiger] 24/6/2022 14:21

picked up 5000 more today

[castleford tiger] 24/6/2022 14:20

myr

The order book closed the year at 35m
It stands at 10m now.

Turnover according to latest note is estimated at 30m.

Clearly that does not add up.

When I dug it became clear that the orders were not backed with cash.

Could that be the reason?
We take a minimum 30% on orders to stop people ordering silly amounts and then backing off.

Let be clear about stock.
Prices are still rising and freight has come back a small amount to 13000 usd.
Lead times are 12-18 months for cycles due to serious shortages of parts.
Electric bikes are 6 months lead times.
So any suggestion of prices falling are wrong.
A company with poor cash flow may well have to knock stuff out.

Tandem are ready to push bikes and scooters if the government stamp the deal to allow.
Whilst clearly selling at £7 and buying back in now would of been preferable getting the shares would have been difficult.
Simon was at the meeting.

tiger

[graham1ty] 24/6/2022 13:29

Is half page article in the Times on TND. Does not add much, though describes the statement as a “dire update”

[my retirement fund] 24/6/2022 12:58

CT (or anyone else at the AGM) was there anymore insight into the recent unexplained sudden departure CT ?

[hpcg] 24/6/2022 12:53

How can there not be more profit warnings? The UK has the worst economy in the developed world, and a government minded to start a trade war. I'd expect the share price to overshoot, but if the economy is in the doldrums for any length of time then all bets are off.

[castleford tiger] 24/6/2022 12:12

based on what RCTurner?

Or are you speculating?

[rcturner2] 24/6/2022 11:32

Expect more profit warnings from this company over the next few months.

[castleford tiger] 23/6/2022 23:05

property at that date was £4,200,000. The Directors of the Company consider this to materially represent the fair value at 31 December 2021."
There are also assets under construction of £3,260k. The current market cap is £12.5m.
I believe the 4.2 m is now worth 5.2m.
They paid 2.7m ish for the land and a further 6 m for the build.
With the costs increasing I expect that to be close to 9.5 m
That 14.7 million together.

[davidosh] 23/6/2022 22:24

I think they got a very good deal when they bought the land next door to create the warehousing facility. It is therefore a useful asset that by the time it is completed will probably be valued about 40% higher than it actually cost.

If it is not wholly required then I am sure there will be no shortage of takers to rent the excess as it is in a very good location. Naturally I prefer that they are growing in orders by then and need all the space and can use it efficiently as planned.

It is certainly a good use of the cash we had and investment we have made though.

[graham1ty] 23/6/2022 20:31

I never quite understood why TND needed such an enormous new warehouse. Yes, bring other operations on site, but it would be mainly assembly and storage as TND manufacture very little.

Yes, to expand into, if they were massively growing, and aiming for £100m revenue, but…..with current trading……;much of the warehouse will be under-utilised for quite a while.

[dalmeny] 23/6/2022 18:02

How will the company have property assets much higher than the market cap this time next year CT?
Note 9 to the accounts states:
"A valuation of the property was carried out by CBRE Limited in October 2020 in accordance with the RICS Valuation – Global Standards(incorporating the International Valuation Standards) and the UK national supplement (the “Red Book”) current as at the valuation date. The value placed on the property at that date was £4,200,000. The Directors of the Company consider this to materially represent the fair value at 31 December 2021."
There are also assets under construction of £3,260k. The current market cap is £12.5m.

[value hound] 23/6/2022 17:31

Re-tipped by Simon THompson who concludes...


The potential for environmentally and energy efficient e-bikes and e-scooters suggests scope for earnings growth in future years. Moreover, even taking account this year’s ravaged earnings projections, the shares are only rated on a price/earnings (PE) ratio of 11. The board are paying out the final dividend of 6.57p a share, too, taking the total to 10p, so there is a dividend yield of 4 per cent. Tandem’s ability to pay its bills is not in doubt as current assets are almost double current liabilities, the balance sheet strength is also highlighted in the 42 per cent share price discount to net asset value of 420p.

So, although my last buy call at 400p is underwater (‘A trio of Ben Graham value plays’, 28 March 2022), I am not cutting my losses. Hold.

[castleford tiger] 23/6/2022 17:28

RC
You are either right or wrong. Over the long period there will be up and downs.
Had I been CEO of the business I would of wanted deposits for the bigger orders.
An order book without deposits of at least 25% means nothing.
The delay in getting bikes here and missing the Xmas market meant many customers just walked away from placed orders.
Mistake by the company.
However this time next year the company will have property assets much higher than the market cap.
The company will be worth £30 m on the balance sheet.
That’s about £6 a share.
The savings from closing the other site will add £500k to bottom line.
I am suprised by the speed this has come back as it’s asset backed.
The market is imperfect .
I still feel this is a good company and with almost 5% yeild I will be buying more and having to declare my stake.
Tiger

[graham1ty] 23/6/2022 17:02

RC, that is a bit unfair !

Tiger has held this for many, many years. He held well before the rerating up from 100p, when TND was madly undervalued. It then did get pushed too high, and the COVID bike flurry was, with hindsight, overegged.

However, TND, remains cheap (it has always been “cheap”) compared to what the business could do with a fair wind.

Tiger has still made lots of money

[rcturner2] 23/6/2022 16:28

CT you have been wrong on this one for how long?

[castleford tiger] 23/6/2022 13:34

There is no mountain of stock to clear.
What they are doing is reducing the offering and these products may be discounted.
There is still up to a 18/24 month lead time
Prices ex factory have not fallen or will they. This normal stock will just be worked through.
A good discussion about numbers etc and the latest target could well be beaten.
The orders cancelled are as a result of a slow down at retail.
Lots of good stuff going on including a pretty big cost saving from closure of northants site.
The small amount of debt at year end will be in stock and expenses Re the new build.
Did a tour of that which should be completed by October.
Whilst the economy has a wobble there was or is little that can be done.
As a long term investor here I will continue to add shares.
Pension should be much better at valuation in October.

[pireric] 23/6/2022 10:28

Counter argument being that they're now expected to end the fiscal year with a few £m of net debt as well

Eric

[hpcg] 23/6/2022 10:21

The liquidation auctions are littered with garden furniture at the moment. It is all cookie cutter too, there is no fashion or style cycle. Prices and margins to come down a lot.

[charo] 23/6/2022 10:16

Like many tandem needs to relook at its supply chain. Establish a home based supply chain,not necessarily 100%,but around 33%.
The reduced margin after allowing for shipping at storage should be manageable when security of supply is taken into consideration.