Tandem Share Discussion Threads

[gaffer73] 06/4/2022 12:48

Very low volume here. It'll be in limbo until the next update I think.

[castleford tiger] 05/4/2022 18:12

the trades did show but not on here

[gaffer73] 05/4/2022 14:14

This is very cheap going by the figures. I suppose it's the unknowns holding it back following the bumper Covid staycation year. If revenue holds or continues to rise this should fly back up.

[gabrielsant] 05/4/2022 13:51

Wow, I sold at around 600, I was lucky so far. I'm not getting in yet, but it seems cheap though, I hope you guys will be fine at the end.

[castleford tiger] 04/4/2022 18:22

2 trades of just over 5400 shares each today are not showing

[castleford tiger] 01/4/2022 08:12

My direct holding remains the same 148k

tiger

[graham1ty] 31/3/2022 16:21

“
Castleford Tiger23 Aug '17 - 17:34 - 3316 of 5274
0 0 0
YES BOUGHT today at 118 ( the rump of the sale this morning)
MM are not being fair however at 105/120 which means 15% is lost on day one.

The amount of shares at .05% surprised me as there are not that many holders.

If I buy anymore tomorrow I will need advice as we go over 3%”

Tiger, I admire your patience with TND, and you have made a lot of money on yr stake. However, you were a tad below 3% six years ago, so I have always wondered why you are not over 3% ? You have been buying consistently ever since ?

[castleford tiger] 31/3/2022 13:40

And finally if you have a direct line to Tandem directors giving you information that is not available to all shareholders that does seem to be a somewhat strange situation, do you think Jim will give other shareholders same level of information and inside scoops he seems to supply you if others were to contact him directly ? I believe he would be obliged to ?

You know the rules as well as i do.
Any information given at a shareholder meeting or directly has to be shared to all.

Jim will take calls from shareholders to clarify points.

Moving on it looks like David has come up with the perfect solution.
A Q and A session that he has kindly invited holders to attend.

I feel for the board because they have been honest, and clearly whilst there is some forward viability things are all over the place.

The current headwinds will go and the world will continue.
There may well be casualties and Tandem can pick up sales from various areas.

The note by the broker is an attempt to forecast the future, so of course it can be wrong. However as David suggested it might well be beaten. Time will tell.

There are many positives all that seem to have been glossed over.
The heavy and increased stock holding will possibly be a pre-inflationary prices so margin should be good.
Bikes whilst important are only a % of the overall business.
The panels we put on the roof a few years ago are now mitigating the cost of power that most business are suffering.

The cash position shown is actually greater but has been reduced to reflect the costs ( but not yet spent) on building etc.

I have added and will continue to do so.

tiger

[davidosh] 30/3/2022 20:08

I certainly have lots of questions and it seems many on here also have them so I have arranged a presentation by Jim and Phil with plenty of time for Q&A for our Mello results show on Tuesday 12th April.

You are all very welcome to attend and I will post more details here as there will be at least four company presentations plus ten companies covered in a results round up.
All shareholders will be given a free code to register.

[rcturner2] 30/3/2022 19:18

Bikes are only 25% of tandems revenue and in any case the order book is much larger than the stock being held so some of the doom mongers on here are a bit off target.

[dan_the_epic] 30/3/2022 18:36

is 56p eps realistic? the diluted eps is actually 51.4p because of swathes of options

Allow me to pretend that Cenkos are clever at estimating the revenue this year and 38mn v 41mn last year is correct (it is rose tinted)

A) Cenkos expect gross margins UP 0.5% this year...
B) Cenkos expect only an inflationary increase in admin costs (6%)


The chances of A and B happening are 35% in my book, and I expect another profit warning unfortunately.

[dan_the_epic] 30/3/2022 18:32

has the donation for ukraine gone through yet ?

[amt] 30/3/2022 17:01

Apparently the 2 year to 10 year bond ratio is forecasting a worldwide recession. I wouldn't be surprised. That signal has been correct for the last fifty years. Governments cannot borrow as before due to interest rate rises. The economic situation worldwide looks dire. It will be a very tough year for consumer related companies but Tandem have a strong balance sheet and plenty of cash so should be in a good position to weather the storm while other Companies go under.

[castleford tiger] 30/3/2022 16:50

have you seen the note?
if you go on CENKOS you can get it

i cant share

[shanklin] 30/3/2022 15:52

I would certainly be interested to see the assumptions behind the 56p EPS estimate... ...so we can sensibly discuss whether this is a remotely likly outcome.

It seems to me its pretty certain that the remainder of '22 will be a lot more challenging that '20. But WDIK?

[castleford tiger] 30/3/2022 15:46

iger Im not sure this below is a particularly strong claim I would struggle to see a "moat" of a brand in the portfolio certainly nothing too unique.

"Jim is very clear that the quality of brands they have are unique and do not have com-parables."

paw patrol/peppa pig/nerf/cocomelon/bluey/lightyear

These are brands / licenses some just introduced.

I am not sure just how much stock is bought on spec against FOB loads that are orders.

I note you say you suspect they are committed to heavy orders placed 18 moths ago.
I am pretty sure you are wrong but will ask the question at our next meeting.

You go on to paint a pretty bad set of circumstances
I see cash erode, margin erode, and stock increase.

Looking at the numbers produced by TANDEM its hard to say they were under ordered......results say otherwise.
The growth in NAV this years shows how much cash/assets are in the business.

Baffled by all this negativity.............i think you may well see some of the bigger declared holders adding to their position.

As ever time will tell

Tiger

[babscabs] 30/3/2022 14:28

Tiger Im not sure this below is a particularly strong claim I would struggle to see a "moat" of a brand in the portfolio certainly nothing too unique.

"Jim is very clear that the quality of brands they have are unique and do not have com-parables."

I do think some visibility of the level of orders placed and in process would be particularly enlightening. I strongly suspect that Tandem are committed to heavy orders that were placed on long lead times, maybe 12-18 months ago, that will now arrive (along with their competitors) into super soggy market conditions. This will erode margin and suck up cash if the stock doesn't move in the required stock "turn".

On the basis we are unlikely to get the above information it is pure guess work as to how far in the hole tandem are going to be but rest assured they are going to see cash erode, margin erode, and stock increase.

You may recall a conversation we had on here at the outset of covid when I raised the issue of tandem likely being severely under ordered and would have poor stock availability for the next year or so and I was somewhat shot down.Of course no information could be weaned or was tendered (understandably) but I was proven right on that score.

Very good juggling and trading skillset going to be needed by Tandem to navigate the next 1-2 years but Tandem with their cash buffer will clearly be able to survive, and personally if I was in their position I would be pretty happy and looking for distressed opportunity out of the bloodbath.

[babscabs] 30/3/2022 14:27

Tiger Im not sure this below is a particularly strong claim I would struggle to see a "moat" of a brand in the portfolio certainly nothing too unique.

"Jim is very clear that the quality of brands they have are unique and do not have com-parables."

I do think some visibility of the level of orders placed and in process would be particularly enlightening. I strongly suspect that Tandem are committed to heavy orders that were placed on long lead times, maybe 12-18 months ago, that will now arrive (along with their competitors) into super soggy market conditions. This will erode margin and suck up cash if the stock doesn't move in the required stock "turn".

On the basis we are unlikely to get the above information it is pure guess work as to how far in the hole tandem are going to be but rest assured they are going to see cash erode, margin erode, and stock increase.

You may recall a conversation we had on here at the outset of covid when I raised the issue of tandem likely being severely under ordered and would have poor stock availability for the next year or so and I was somewhat shot down.Of course no information could be weaned or was tendered (understandably) but I was proven right on that score.

Very good juggling and trading skillset going to be needed by Tandem to navigate the next 1-2 years but Tandem with their cash buffer will clearly be able to survive, and personally if I was in their position I would be pretty happy and looking for distressed opportunity out of the bloodbath.

[skwas1] 30/3/2022 13:06

TND’s golf and bike products are at the cheap end of their respective markets, and I believe the people who purchase at this price point are generally the ones who will now/shortly be feeing the financial squeeze the most. I therefore feel these two product ranges will struggle going forward.

[castleford tiger] 30/3/2022 12:46

Guys try the food industry
oil drums up 100%
Milk 40%
eggs 50%
Flour 35%
fresh fruit and salad up 50%

I could go on.
catering outlets have this plus wage rises and NI and energy costs that have at least doubled ( tripled if they use gas)

So that meal down the pub will be expensive ( plus 30%) even to stand still.

However we have to look beyond this to more normal times and these massive inflationary items will start to drop out in 2023.

Jim is very clear that the quality of brands they have are unique and do not have com-parables.
With reference to e scooters......i agree until government frees the market it will be slow. ( expected 2023)
however e bikes are still hard to find around me.

If anyone knows of any areas that are not affected by these inflationary pressures please let me know.
however the strong will do well and those under pressure will struggle

tiger

[my retirement fund] 30/3/2022 12:10

Interesting RC2, what's happened to me post covid are enormous price rises of manufactured goods (I am into lithium batteries), literally 40% price rise YoY, I have good stock from 6 months ago because I over ordered when prices were better due to fear of shortages, back orders and fear of lock down disruption. I now need to be pushing those prices up drastically like today, but I can't because lots of competitors have good stock to. In my business there is a crunch ahead, everyone will be forced to push up prices and some people will be forced out the market as demand falls with the higher prices. I wonder if that's the same for bikes and toys, I don't know because I am not a toy retailer but I would guess the principle is the same. Going forward my best times are behind me for possible a good few years. Next year my business won't make much of a profit at all!

[rcturner2] 30/3/2022 11:57

I went into my local bike shop to get my son's bike serviced and I reckon every single bike in the shop was marked down in price and there were some real bargains.