Sysgroup Share Discussion Threads

[energyi] 29/9/2002 15:55

Thanks for the idea, Ashley.
Maybe we should move the SWC discussion to that thread.

Other thoughts on Models, or charting frameworks are welcome

[mbbcat] 29/9/2002 08:15

? no disrespect folks, but arn't we getting a bit off track as far as sticking to the thread title etc?

[mr ashley james] 28/9/2002 15:09

Mike,

Market cap around US$257m Check out the reserve valuation (27.70m toz PGM)I come to US$9.27 per toz of reserves, and production valuation (526,000 2001 increasing to 640,000 2002) I come to US$401.80 to US$488 per toz of annual PGM production.

Cheap as old boots in my opinion, and could see a five to six point two five times upside to US$30 to US$37.50 with ease IMHO.Say risk US$6 reward US$30 ie 5 x 1

Classic Head and Shoulders Play US$52 high Feb 2000 less US$18 length of neck line= US$34, right shoulder US$40 approx less US$34=US$6 approx

Look at OBV very, very oversold IMHO:-

MACD turning up!



Short interest 6.50% plus strike reasons for drop from US$52 to US$6 IMHO!

?Long US$6, Stop US$4.80 has completed Gann G1, x 50% x 50% x 50% =12.50% of high ie Wall Street Crash level sell off!

All IMHO, NAG, DYOR etc, etc

Best regards

Ashley

[energyi] 28/9/2002 14:59

Okay. Here's the five year charting applied to Stillwater:



It certainly is terrificly oversold. Cannot say more that that
based on this chart.

[mr ashley james] 27/9/2002 21:14

Mike,

Yes I would like to know your view on Stillwater Mining Company, I am surprised to see you playing the highly priced US Major miners, I think this is very dangerous (not as dangerous as TWT mind you)



I think AQP in London is potentially also a chart buy especially noting OBV:-



Views/opinions positive/negative.

Cheers

Ash

[energyi] 27/9/2002 20:44

As can be seen in the top charts, ABX looks an obvious SELL.
The charts helped to identify the $18-ish resistance level.
Support not expected until about $14. Then A-B-C formation may be completed.

Both FCX and t.TH looked very dangerous free-falling stocks
when purchased, but are back in profit now. Have a SELL order in on t.TH.

If sale goes through: Any Suggestions for re-investment?

Freeport (FCX) looking overbought on 10 Day chart:

[lodger] 26/9/2002 22:41

Look at all time scales possible and try and get all trends lining up, look at support/resistance breaking. If it's not obvious from 6 feet and 6 whiskey's don't do it. When you do, just do it. No thinking. No emotional investment.

[seymour clearly] 26/9/2002 22:36

Thanks Big Vern,

I've been using 6 month charts but I also saw Limpy looking at much longer time scales earlier this year, so I try and use the longer for support and resistance, then the one day OHLC charts for a feel of the present state of play, and am looking to sell into small rallies in a downtrend and vice versa.

[energyi] 26/9/2002 19:10

Simple is good. Some refinements work for me.
Have added a four year chart to the Header.
Saw Limpsfield using 2 year weekly charts at the seminar today.
The longer perspective is quite useful.

- - - - -
Update on the trades featured:
..... 24 Sept. xx Sept.
Stock Original Current
ABX-- $17.96- . $15.85-
FCX-- $12.75+ . $12.57+
t.TH- $ 4.56+ . $ 5.47+
Net.. $ ----- . $ -----
Net.. $ 0.65- . $ 2.19+ change: $2.84
My $17,960, now: $18.04+$0.65= $18,690, instead of $15,850

Barrick collapsed today! down $2+ at one stage.
This on a falling gold price and a negative Press Release.
Thera shot up with Biotechs. Am trying to take some profits on t.TH

[big vern] 26/9/2002 18:45

I go for more overbought indicators ie >75++ but in an overall downtrend (60days +) for the trendlines and then get ready to short. ie there's been a bit of a long rally in a downtrend. Sell into that and short

Both RSI and stoch over 75

I'm just shorting at the moment - go with the flow etc

[seymour clearly] 26/9/2002 17:56

Big Vern

Thanks - I like it simple as well. What values do you consider oversold on the RSI, or do you go with your gut instinct?

tia, Seymour.

[jl202] 26/9/2002 15:07

energyi, you've got a fan :)

[energyi] 25/9/2002 19:37

It's working so far:


Stock Original Current
ABX-- $17.96- . $
FCX-- $12.75+ . $
t.TH- $ 4.56+ . $
Net.. $ ----- . $ -----

[energyi] 25/9/2002 15:37

Anyone look at Freeport (FCX)?
It is bouncing a bit today and along with Phelps Dodge (PD), the largest
copper producer has jumped to the Moving average.
:THREAD:


Barrick (ABX) still fighting resistance near $18

[r.dryden] 25/9/2002 09:29

Bosco,

I know what you mean but that can cause missed trades sometimes with
short ma's. Easy enough to check visually but not so easy to code in my
charting software.
Also I would use these signals to scan the data base for possible trades.

I wanted to show how the macd would look when its properties
were transferred to the price chart.


Energyi,

Unfortunately I don't have access to end of day VIX data.
I get the Dow data as a free download from downloadquotes.com but they
do't do the VIX.
Would be worth having though.
I'll have a look at some of the volatility indicators I have.

[energyi] 25/9/2002 07:46

r.dryden,
Have you seen VIX (the Volatility Index)?
I had a look at your chart and think you may be able to improve the
quality of your signals by add a VIX component.
If you are unfamiliar, you may want to have a look at the VIX thread:


The Volatility Index (VIX) is a measure of the implied volatility
of nearby S&P100 (OEX) options. Volatility tends to rise when
market participants are nervous and are most keen to buy options.
Thus:
- A LOW VIX (near 20%) is associated with (complacent) market tops, and
- A HIGH VIX (near 40%) is associated with market bottoms.

- - -
Model: added a link for Insider Buys and Sells

[bosco] 25/9/2002 04:24

Rory...those downtrend "buy signals" between mid May and August aren't really buy signals at all as the signal line is still pointing downwards.
IMO both lines should be pointing up for a proper buy signal.

[mbbcat] 24/9/2002 22:33

out of interest, what timeframe charts are people using relative to what periods they are trading/ holding

[mbbcat] 24/9/2002 22:31

For what it's worth;

8 period red simple ma of low, 10 period green simple ma of high
gives a channel with the red as support & the green as resistance, there should be normally 3 bars clearly over / under the s/r to qualify as a potential change in trend.

run 2 charts in cmc one is a bar chart set up as above
2nd one is a line chart with cmc's 5 way ma

duplicate the above in 3 or more timeframes for further confirmation.

real life experience with the above - mixed, great for those violently 45degree plus bullish / bearish days but a pig in a sideways market, also leaves out most of the start & end of the run & can generate whipsaws. But the nice thing is that the same idea can be modified for different markets. have played with the ma's with some degreee of success but always come back the the original - more or less.

basic idea is to spot the clear trends & ride maybe half of each main one.

[part of the idea from;
Jake Bernstien's Compleate day trader]

Still looking for improved ways to system trade in cmc's minimal charts.

[luthor] 24/9/2002 22:05

energyi, I think this is a good time to sell. The chart shows a double bottom where gold rose to 18, and that is the target price. I would have liked to see the MACD and slow stochastics. I suspect the MACD has either converging or has converged and the stochastics is probably oversold.
Where it goes from here depends on what happens next.
Lex

[bbfifi] 24/9/2002 22:00

I'm new to this share dealings, very glad to have found a good teacher!