Sysgroup Share Discussion Threads

[energyi] 20/10/2002 19:01

ADDING TO THE MODEL:
Review of On Balance Volume (OBV) and Insider Trading
...not much BUY activity recently...

Stock OBV LastIT Direction Size
GSS-- .=. 09/02. BUY x1... 5,000=$6800 (CFO)
..... ... ...... and the SELLS, most are stale
NEM-- .v. 09/02. Sell x2.. 36,800
GLG-- .v. 09/02. Sell x2.. 45,000
SWC-- .=. 08/02. Sell x3.. 3,700
FCX-- .=. 07/02. Sell x1.. 1,372m
PAAS- .=. 06/02. Sell x2.. 94,000
ABX-- .=. 05/02. Sell x5.. 220m
PDG-- .=. 06/98. Award x1. 10,000
AEM-- .v. 05/93. Sell x2.. 1,000m+
GG--- .v.
ASA-- .v.
KGC-- .=.
BGO-- .v.
t.AGD .=.

Note (OBV): =:sideways, v:down, ^:up

[energyi] 20/10/2002 18:46

It may be time to BUY Gold shares. The cycle looks right:


I want to take a look at insider buying

[energyi] 01/10/2002 07:44

Sold FCX ($13.75)... May buy SWC ($6.00)

Update on featured trades: New format
..... 24 Sept. 30 Sept.
Stock Original Current
ABX-- $17.96- . $15.55-
Hold:
FCX-- $12.75+ . $13.75x
t.TH- $ 4.56+ . $ 5.13+
Cash. $ 0.69+ . $ 0.69+
Net.. $ ----- . $ -----
Value $18.00+ . $19.57+
Net.. $ 0.04+ . $ 4.02+ change: $3.98
My $18,000, now: $19,570 + 8.7%
- - - - -

[m.t.glass] 01/10/2002 01:47

Elliot Wave/Gann angles/fibonacci.. "you either believe it or you don't.."

Count me still among the non-believers for now Ashley.
Smacks of doilyism to me..

Maybe one day I'll acquire a totally different view..

:o)

[r.dryden] 30/9/2002 18:22

nice work energyi!

[energyi] 30/9/2002 15:22

Update on the trades featured:
..... 24 Sept. 30 Sept.
Stock Original Current
ABX-- $17.96- . $15.28-
FCX-- $12.75+ . $13.34+
t.TH- $ 4.56+ . $ 5.50+
Net.. $ ----- . $ -----
Net.. $ 0.65- . $ 3.56+ change: $4.21
My $17,960, now: $18.88+$0.65= $19,730
- - - - -

[dead cat bounce] 30/9/2002 14:49

Ash - why should a 68 period MA tell you where your next target is going to be with any more accuracy that a 67 or 69 or 79 or 109 or 1009 period MA?

dcb

[mr ashley james] 30/9/2002 14:25

Energyi,

21 Waves to point (1) 5, 34 waves to point C (2), 55 waves to point (3) 5, 68 waves to point C (4), 89 Waves to point [1](5)5, 110 waves to point 5 (A)123 Waves to point (B)C, 144 Waves to point 5 (C)[2]

DCB,

The chart above tells me my next target is around 285p in four days time and that a further target of approximately 310p is due within 34 days from then.

The best I can hope for is 310p in 4 days time ie at day 21 that is roughly it.

Best regards

Ashley

[dead cat bounce] 30/9/2002 13:41

Ashley - what information are the 5 Moving Averages giving you on the chart you show above?

dcb

[energyi] 30/9/2002 09:17

ashley, why 68?

[mr ashley james] 30/9/2002 09:04

DCB,

Eliott Wave Theory Gann Angles and Fibonacci time periods, reasonably simple IMHO.

You either believe it or you don't basically I do.

Basically AQP for example looks like this to me:-



I use now short term 3, 5, 8, 13, 21 longer term, 21,34,55,68,89,110,123, and 144 for obvious reasons:-



Cheers

Ashley

[dead cat bounce] 30/9/2002 08:55

Ashley - I'm at work so no time to post proper answer now. I'll post tonite and put a chart up from tc2000 so you can see some of their indicators.

I don't understand your second paragraph. Please clarify.

Brief answer to last paragraph. No indicator is a holy grail. I never use MA crossovers as I think they are arbitrary (why should a crossover of say a 20 bar and a 60 bar give any better or worse signal than a xover of a 15 bar and a 19 bar) and they give signals far too late. I tend to use 2 or 3 indicators in conjunction and find that divergences are more reliable than anything else. However, without doubt, the most important aspects of charting are support and resistance. A simple fact that we tend to forget in the search for more and more obsure "holy grail" indicators that we can then use as crutches to lean our analysis on.

dcb

[mr ashley james] 29/9/2002 19:51

DCB,

Do your volume indicators effectively say bottoms and tops confirmed by large volumes?

My problem with this is one small issue, if there is a big seller on a stock, price moves down until sellers stock placed, then when SPT completed trade put through, so positive you can see seller gone, stock overhang cleared, problem is if you are already long, and price drops you have no idea of size of overhang, so only stop loss saves you from this.

I find it difficult to look in rear view mirror in trading, and rely on fundamental analysis to tell me value, then select chart entry on that basis.

Which do you think is the single most important indicator of when to buy or sell? I find Fibo no MA Crossovers work very well as indeed I do MACD.

Best regards

Ashley

[energyi] 29/9/2002 18:32

DCB,
I will chart two of the above here: One Short, One Long

-Philip Morris (MO), closed at $37.86:


+Worthington Industries (WOR), closed at $19.21


Notional ($10,000 each way positions:)
Stock... Price. Shares :Original
- MO-- : $37.86 - 264 : -$ 9,995
+ WOR- : $19.21 + 521 : +$10,008
........ ------ ....... --------
Net Value ............. +$ 0,013

[dead cat bounce] 29/9/2002 17:39

In my new incarnation as a position trader, I find that I am reverting to the simplest of classical charting techniques to pick stocks.

I look at charts on a Sunday, with a view to opening a position on Monday and holding for 7-14 days. The first thing I do is look at the S&P and try to guage where I think it is going in the next few days. This direction will affect the weighting of the trading portfolio. If I think the S&P will go down it doesn't mean that I won't pick any longs, but that I will want to have more shorts than longs in the list. Also, any longs I pick will need to be on much stronger reasoning than the shorts, as the shorts will have the weight of the S&P movement behind them, but the longs will be running against the tide.

I find that I can't look thru all 500 of the S&P components. I look at the chart in some detail so by the time I get past about 100, I've gone cross eyed and my concentration begins to lapse. So I use the search criteria in my chart package (www.tc2000.com) to bring up various different groups that might throw up interesting charts. Search criteria such as 5 day volume surge, proximity to 52 week high or low, proximity to 90 day high or low, 4 week high or low, gappers. Using these wider search groups, I then look at the charts within them for the simple patterns, breakouts on volume, bounce off support or resistance, flags etc.

I have no time for moving average crossovers as I think they give largely meaningless signals, which are always late anyway.

Similarly, I give no credence to stochastic crossovers, only to stochastic divergences. I have learned only too well from watching stochastics on 1 minute bars while daytrading that a stochastic crossover lags price and can UNCROSS when price retraces.

Three proprietary indicators in the tc2000 package do give quite good signals. They are basically volume based, so reinforce the belief that any breakout must be on good volume.

The ones I chose last week using the above method were all shorts - BRCM, DAL, IBM, NCR, RJR, SPG and ZION. All but SPG were winners over the week.

I still think the S&P is weak, so this weks are predominantly shorts. This weeks picks (which I give to illustrate my system, not as any kind of trading advice) are TIN, EMC, FNM, DOV, CSC, BLS, SBC, FD, TSG, MO (all shorts) and longs - ERTS and WOR.

dcb

[energyi] 29/9/2002 15:55

Thanks for the idea, Ashley.
Maybe we should move the SWC discussion to that thread.

Other thoughts on Models, or charting frameworks are welcome

[mbbcat] 29/9/2002 08:15

? no disrespect folks, but arn't we getting a bit off track as far as sticking to the thread title etc?

[mr ashley james] 28/9/2002 15:09

Mike,

Market cap around US$257m Check out the reserve valuation (27.70m toz PGM)I come to US$9.27 per toz of reserves, and production valuation (526,000 2001 increasing to 640,000 2002) I come to US$401.80 to US$488 per toz of annual PGM production.

Cheap as old boots in my opinion, and could see a five to six point two five times upside to US$30 to US$37.50 with ease IMHO.Say risk US$6 reward US$30 ie 5 x 1

Classic Head and Shoulders Play US$52 high Feb 2000 less US$18 length of neck line= US$34, right shoulder US$40 approx less US$34=US$6 approx

Look at OBV very, very oversold IMHO:-

MACD turning up!



Short interest 6.50% plus strike reasons for drop from US$52 to US$6 IMHO!

?Long US$6, Stop US$4.80 has completed Gann G1, x 50% x 50% x 50% =12.50% of high ie Wall Street Crash level sell off!

All IMHO, NAG, DYOR etc, etc

Best regards

Ashley

[energyi] 28/9/2002 14:59

Okay. Here's the five year charting applied to Stillwater:



It certainly is terrificly oversold. Cannot say more that that
based on this chart.

[mr ashley james] 27/9/2002 21:14

Mike,

Yes I would like to know your view on Stillwater Mining Company, I am surprised to see you playing the highly priced US Major miners, I think this is very dangerous (not as dangerous as TWT mind you)



I think AQP in London is potentially also a chart buy especially noting OBV:-



Views/opinions positive/negative.

Cheers

Ash

[energyi] 27/9/2002 20:44

As can be seen in the top charts, ABX looks an obvious SELL.
The charts helped to identify the $18-ish resistance level.
Support not expected until about $14. Then A-B-C formation may be completed.

Both FCX and t.TH looked very dangerous free-falling stocks
when purchased, but are back in profit now. Have a SELL order in on t.TH.

If sale goes through: Any Suggestions for re-investment?

Freeport (FCX) looking overbought on 10 Day chart:

[lodger] 26/9/2002 22:41

Look at all time scales possible and try and get all trends lining up, look at support/resistance breaking. If it's not obvious from 6 feet and 6 whiskey's don't do it. When you do, just do it. No thinking. No emotional investment.