Steppe Cement Share Discussion Threads

[azalea] 31/12/2012 10:47

Kazakhstan GDP grew by 7% in 2011. Wholly owned subsidiary Karcement enjoys a 0% income tax rate until 31/12/2013. As of 31/12/2011, total indebtedness decreased to US$54.6m from US$73.7m in 2010. On 1/4/2012 cash balance and stocks of clinker and cement exceeded US$18m. The government continues its programe of railway and road construction and infrastructure investment. The main Kazakh banks and pension funds have been increasing liquidity. Credit lending to the real economy is expected to accelerate in 2012. NAV 45p(2011)

[knigel] 30/12/2012 21:47

lies (these shares were NOT tipped in the Sunday Times)

[azalea] 30/12/2012 20:39

Armed with some recently acquired statistics, I make no apology for returning to highlight the prospects for STCM.The last if not only report by the IC on the 12-4-10 for FY 2009, included the following - £1=US$1.535, share price 68p, 12 month low/high 28p/96p, T/O down 35% @ $59.1m, ptx losses $19m(profits $26m), Eps -12cts(+16cts)and considered "Fairly value". The company reported that after a stable H2, "demand this year(2010) will be back to levels seen in 2008, when consumption totalled 5.1m tonnes". debt was reduced to $74.2m($89.8m) with £10m raised through a share offer of 40m @ 25p, which was oversubscribed by 217%.

Subsequent share offers were made in 2010- 25m @ 40p, Also 2012- 40m @ 25p- to be spent on Line 5 conversion). Both 'offers' were oversubscribed by 34%).

Against this backdrop and current rates of £1=245 Tenge(KZT), US$1= 150KZT, the first three quarterly results for 2012 make interesting reading( RNS 5651O dated 12-10-12).
Q1 -3 (inc) rrevenues totalled £60.006m, however Q3 alone achieved £28..932m, just £2.142m short of Q1 & Q2 combined. Consumption estimates have been raised from 6.8m to 7m tonnes, cement imports this year v 2011, have dropped 2%to 13%, whilst mkt share is similar @ 20%.

On completion of the conversion of Line 5 from 'wet' to 'dry' production,in Autumn 2013, it alone will produce 1.2m tonnes, whilst total production will increase by 75% from 1.6m to 2.8m tonnes.With an estimated cost savings of $8.5m each year.

On 30-10-12, KASE approved the listing of two bonds with 5 & 6 year maturities to be issued by STCM fully owned subsidiary Central Asia Cement JSC. ON 21-11-12,it accepted bids for 1490mKZT for 5 -year unsecured bonds with a 10% coupon per annum, payable semi annually. The bonds were issued at 96.25% face value, the bonds are repayable on maturity. Net proceeds of 1426KZT
(circa US$9.5m)will be spent mostly on completion of Line 5 plus working capital.

Prior to the latest share offer, in the last available showing by Morningstar(currently showing no brokers forecasts), Westhouse Securities made the following forecasts (dated 18-10-12) with a "strong buy" recc.

2012
Ptx £6.19m Eps 2.41p

2013
Ptx £8.91m Eps 3.46p.

DYOR

[azalea] 28/12/2012 16:13

Starting to build up steam(bid 26.15p) Q3 figures very positive. With dry line 5 up and running this Autumn, I expect the share price to hit circa 40p by the time of FY results in May 2013, In Oct 2010 25m share were offered @ 40p and oversubscribed by 34%. The recent offer of 40m shares @ 25p were also over subscribed by 34%.

[azalea] 19/12/2012 10:58

With this morning's tick up(9%) in the 'offer' price, I suspect the recent 40m offer of shares(over subscribed by 34%) have now been allocated to those entitled entities. Anyone wanting to buy in now will have to pay the going price. I expect to see a notable gain in the bid price on FY results(May), but a big jump on news later in the year that the newly converted Dry production line is up and running, with huge cost savings to follow.

[azalea] 18/12/2012 07:32

Chairman R Brown buys 372,120 @ 25p(total 422,120).

[azalea] 14/12/2012 12:12

Worth recapping on some of the crucial benefits resulting from the 'offer'(RNS 5111Q 7/11/12.
Part of the net £9.67m received from the 40m shares offered @ 25p, will be used to ccmplete(US$6m already spent)the reconstruction of wet line 5 into a dry line production by Autumn 2013. Dry Line 5 will produce 1.2m tons and save circa US$8.5m dollars each year compared to the current production cost of the wet lines. Total annual production will be raised from the current 1.6m tons to 2.8m tons, of which 2m tons will be produced from dry production lines.

[azalea] 14/12/2012 10:16

Firebird Funds pops up above the 3% disclosure level with a holding of 7,443,963 shares(3.34%). Amzi Hamzah adds 9.4m(46,409,416 -21.9%), Crichton-Watt family adds 7.375m(34,350,066 -15.68%).

[azalea] 13/12/2012 10:00

Genesis adds 5,083,764 @ 25p in recent 40m share placing; now holds 16,079,909 7.34%.

[azalea] 03/12/2012 09:08

The offer of 40m shares @ 25p to qualifying shareholders has been oversubscribed by 34%. For anyone not holding STCM, the background to the offer is well worth a read. I expect to see a revised brokers forecast.

[azalea] 07/11/2012 09:45

Today's 40m share @ 25p a modest discount with no shortage of takers, heralds a huge leap in STCM fortunes. Line 5 completion in Autumn 2013 will see a huge saving of $8.5m per year with an increase in production of 75% to 2.8m tons. Domestic consumption is growing whilst imports are falling. These numbers support recent(18.10.12) broker's forecast(which may be revised on this news) 2012 Ptx £6.19m Eps 2.41p. 2013 Ptx £8.91m Eps 8.46p.

[azalea] 30/10/2012 11:03

A lot of money pouring in here lately, with today's news of Genesis Asset Management popping up with a 10,996,145(6.14%) holding.

[mattjos] 12/7/2011 20:16

USDKZT chart not looking so beneficial here now

[rambutan2] 10/7/2011 02:17

Mattjos, thanks for your thoughts. I recently bumped into a Spanish guy who turned out to be the CEO. SPCM didn't really enter into the conversation but I was intrigued enough to want a look at it, and the chart hints at potential value. That said, I know nothing about cement although assume it must be fairly low margin, high fixed cost, which isn't my natural habitat. I'll put it on my watch list and do a bit of research.

[mattjos] 08/7/2011 21:07

Q2 comes in at:

Volume: 413695
Value: 4564000000

all the headline metrics continue to move in the right direction & costs are under control (inferred from prior commentary)
Total Kaz cement market is expanding and Steppe are maintaining their 20% mkt share as the market expands.

Kaz Tenge is generally recovering v the US$ and the govt has said they will allow it float more freely in a generally strengthening direction.
(See mgmnt commentary re. affects of a 10% swing in value of the KZT v USD)

At present i don't see why the market should not broadly rate this somewhat higher than it is currently is ...... if the UK market doesn't do so then, I can easily imagine one of the Chinese nationals running their slide rule over this one as a means of gaining a presence on the Silk Route development and a handly asset to have bordering W. China (where the necessity to develop infrastructure for inbound shipping of resources and outbound shipping of product is causing significant investment in Xinjiang & Mongolia).
Steppe would be a small morsel for the likes of Conch ..... this looks like a possible pawn in a larger game to me.

[rambutan2] 08/7/2011 14:21

Hi Mattjos,

could you explain your last post. What's your views on the update? STCM is new to me. Thanks in advance.

[mattjos] 08/7/2011 08:46

dream on RECA

[mattjos] 07/7/2011 12:34

cant seem to get an online quote at the indicated prices today for even 5k shares despite the rising volumes over the last few days being reported within the spread. USDKZT at 145.5 currently

[mattjos] 11/6/2011 00:09

Davy .. i was in but then got out with a small profit. decided to wait until later in the year and see what they decide to do about the new kiln, currently mothballed. That's the key to how they see the market, imo & at present there are no signs of start up.
The currency is slowly, v slowly, moving in the right direction but it looks like the govt is not going to let it move as fast as i had expected. Will have to wait and see if the bottom falls out the dollar or not.
whether Q4 2011 or 2012 proves the time to be holding in these is still not clear to me but the potential is obvious & i keep watch on developemtys with WCC's move into Xinjiang province to see how infrastructure into China is being developed along the old Silk route as a rough guide.

[warranty] 08/6/2011 20:19

Don't know davydoo but in my experience delayed results are rarely a good sign and given the share price capitulation, if you're not already in, I wouldn't touch these right now.

[davydoo] 06/6/2011 21:21

anybody know why annual results havent been released yet? the preliminary announcement on 31 Jan stated they would be relieased in April.

[davydoo] 06/6/2011 18:26

interesting comments Mattjos about KZT:USD, the trend you identified has continued slowly, 145 on the chart now

[arej] 07/2/2011 16:14

A bit of activity today...