Steppe Cement Share Discussion Threads

[azalea] 25/3/2014 07:50

Mach100
Good to see you and other buying in yesterday and adding more info to potentially wider influences on demand beyond the country's borders.

With potentially several influencing factors in play, for me, if not others, its difficult to sort the wheat from the chaff in determining what has caused the share price to reverse its downward movement.

I do not think the Crimean situation has any influence here, especially as the share price has moved up smartly despite a signed annexation. Possibly some PI got tired of waiting for news on the completion and commissioning of Line 5, which has now been achieved. Ignoring the very large trades these past weeks, the recent 'normal' PI sized trades appear to have a surprisingly positive influence on the share price Firebird increasing its stake suggests at least, it thought the share price was too low. However, there is nothing to explain/interpret the majority of the numerous large trades in recent weeks. That said, some could be new/existing holdings which remain below the declarable 3% level.

The government's US $700m investment in social housing could explain all of the above whereby STCM with its indiginous workforce, committment and huge investment in the country, makes it easiiy the No1 contender to capture a major share of the cement orders arising out of that project. In addition, the country's continuing development of its massive energy and mineral reserves and associated infrastruture should provide a heightened and prolonged demand for cement for years to come. The combination of increased capacity, greater efficiences and lower costs should enable STCM to also capture demand for cement currently met by imports. I see no reaso why the share price should not returns to the 48p level in H2 as a starting point for greater things.

[mach100] 24/3/2014 19:21

Being tracking these down to 33p but was put off by the russian situation in Crimea and follow on contagion. Although the situation in Crimea has worsened I feel sentiment has changed on this stock so I am in at 37p before it runs away. There has been fairky significant buying pressure which I hope continues and pushes through 40p. I think the market is huge in Kazakhstan alone. The government has just announced a 160 billion tenge ( just under 700m USD) programme of social housing so the share of building materials of domestic production will probably increase from 65% to 90 % on the local market. I also expect demand in China for cement to grow by 6 to 8% this year. But to comply with environmental targets Hebei province has been asked to cut its cement production capacity by 60Mt/yr by 2017. Jiangsu province is to cut its production capacity by 10Mt/yr and Jiangxi province must cut its capacity by 5Mt/yr. One company invested $5m in 2011 in a new system and is being shut with only $1.5m dollars compensation. Must be plenty of export opportunities for Steppes in the next few years if they become exporters. Last year's results were affected by the tenge's depreciation against the dollar which their profits are denominated in. The tenge has risen 20% from 152 to 182 per USD so even if they stood still profits would grow 20%. And the new factory isn East Kazakhstan has to be factored which did 150000t in the first half of last year but should do 800000t this year. I also expect pent up demand after the exceptionally cold weather of January and February. There should be an update on Q1 on 15th of April so we should be in for some good news I hope. Hopefully Ukraine and Russia will not escalate though.

[azalea] 24/3/2014 13:06

Impossible to make any sensible interpretation from these ongoing large trades, so I am just going to sit back and watch the MMs (who must know a lot more than me) continue to move the share price up, albeit with a long way to go.

[azalea] 24/3/2014 10:13

As yet,no rns on the large volume trades(post 295), nevertheless, as buyers are realising, the MM have lifted the offer 2p since last week.

[azalea] 21/3/2014 10:37

I suspect that with a continuation today of largish trades - two pairs of 130k @ 33p, that we will get an rns on Monday detailing further news on major holdings. With the end of Q1 on 31 March, the board should have a fair idea of how Line5 and overall production is progressng; which might explain the large trades and volumes far in excess of the 90 day average.

Edit: based on 2013, we could get a Q1 update on Monday 8/4.

[azalea] 20/3/2014 16:29

Odd, or what? 3k bought @ 33p, 2092 bought @ 34.9p.

Edit.Then timed at 16,30hrs, 15k bought @ 35p. 16:32hrs 10k @ 33p.

[azalea] 20/3/2014 12:02

Yet another batch of large trades.

Edit: and then some. Volume today, 13 times 90day average.

[azalea] 20/3/2014 07:38

News of Firebird's purchase of 1.66m shares (total 9,103,963 -4.16%), lends confidence in STCM prospects going forward. When announced Q1 2014 (Jan-March) figures should provide guidance for the remainder of the year.

[cascudi] 19/3/2014 17:19

Kazakhstan to direct 160 bln tenge to Affordable Housing Program in 2014

hxxp://www.4-traders.com/news/Kazakhstan-to-direct-160-bln-tenge-to-Affordable-Housing-Program-in-2014--18114566/

[cascudi] 19/3/2014 17:13

Huge construction opportunities in Kazakhstan says UKTI

hxxp://www.theconstructionindex.co.uk/news/view/huge-construction-opportunities-in-kazakhstan-says-ukti

sounds good

[cascudi] 19/3/2014 13:05

nice big trade buy

[azalea] 14/3/2014 16:32

Is that 1m @ 33p the completion of a sell order and the reason why hitherto the share price has been flat,despite the commissioning of line5?

[azalea] 14/3/2014 10:17

Given that Karcement JSC now has STCM two most important production dry lines- 5 & 6, I thought it was time I found out exactly where it is situated. To my surprise, I found that it sits on the Eastern shore of the Caspian Sea. Its location has three important features - a low lying flat region, with the Caspian Sea providing both a moderating influence on the weather(currently 7C) and a gateway to several other countries sitting on its shoreline.

[azalea] 14/3/2014 08:18

Without doubt Kazakhstan is a huge and underdeveloped country, rich in energy reources. Demand for cement is rising y-o-y. If STCM can also capture a chunk of existing foreign imports of cement with its recently commissioned dry line5, in FY 2014, the share price should start to motor well beyond its 52 week high.

[cascudi] 13/3/2014 20:41

hxxp://www.tradingeconomics.com/kazakhstan/gdp

impressive gdp grow in Kazakhstan.

if there is grow than construction follow the same path.

[azalea] 13/3/2014 09:19

Some very large trades going on this week, but I do not know what they represent or for that matter, are about.

[azalea] 12/3/2014 17:16

A bigger fish of 65K @ 36p looks good.

[azalea] 12/3/2014 13:47

The moment I have been waiting for has finally arrive, a 14.8k trade has finally stirred the MM interest(if not the buyer), who have upped the 'offer' to 36p. There was a solitary 100k buy @ 34.5p earlier, which may have served as signal to both sides.

[azalea] 11/3/2014 15:53

Some sizeable trades not always decipherable, however, on balance,positive numbers.

[azalea] 10/3/2014 15:37

I think there has been several trades(after hours),from several days last week that have only been posted today. Interestingly, they were all 'buys' ranging from 35.45p to 36p.

[azalea] 07/3/2014 09:45

Sp down circa 28% since last November. With newly commissioned Line5 adding 1.2m to capacity, I expect the share price to climb back and move higher in 2014. To that end I have cleared out my piggy bank and added 2500 @ 35p this morning. Mr Hamzah has not been upping his stake(now 25.01%)by the millions, on a whim.

[azalea] 06/3/2014 16:08

I believe the share price is on the bottom, and so do buyers moving in today @ 34.8p. Q2 should produce a dramatic improvement to the bottom line as warmer weather and demend for cement kicks in. I estimate the last 1m purchase(31/1/14) of shares by Mr hamzah was made @ 44.25p.

[azalea] 04/3/2014 07:15

Given the very cold weather in Kazakhstan, the completion and commissioning of the new multi million dollar Line 5 production line is a remarkable achievement and a huge production milestone. With everyhing set to go, ahead of warmer Spring weather, STCM should be able to show its paces in meeting the increased demand for cement and with greater cost efficiencies take for itself a large slice of last year's foreign imports.

[azalea] 22/2/2014 15:39

but the women are fighting back. After all temperatures are rising and Spring is just around the corner. Woolly underwear is just not going to cut it for these modern females.