Steppe Cement Share Discussion Threads

[azalea] 19/2/2019 13:16

As buying increases, MM will narrow the spread in the hope of attracting sellers to meet demand. Given the annual update, I wish them luck.

[celeritas] 19/2/2019 12:48

A few dribbles to clear up I reckon, should hopefully see it pushing 31-32p this week.

[mattjos] 19/2/2019 12:29

60k indicated on offer but, only 12k actually offered. Overhang has gone as far as I am concerned

[celeritas] 19/2/2019 12:29

Looks like that overhang has cleared.

[mattjos] 19/2/2019 11:52

SEB must now be down to only 2-300k left. This must be Apollo final top up

[azalea] 19/2/2019 09:06

just ten weeks before the FY results, I have topped up before the rush to buy gets under way.

[azalea] 12/2/2019 11:45

Buyers moving in this morning. The bid is 25.2p. Hence, IMHO the 25k trade at 26p, is a buy.

[azalea] 11/2/2019 13:06

Given the economics of post 1218, I am even more encouraged by the 29.1% holding. Meanwhile the clock is ticking as modest buyers move in at 26p.

[wilo101] 10/2/2019 10:15

With the use of what was there already more than Euros 350m was invested in totally modernising the 2 Dry Lines to where we are today, Heildelberg, Vicat, Cemex, CRH wiuld have spent Euros 650m, but the company did it all for Euros350m between 2004 and now, If there was a way to upload could circulate some recent photos and videoas.

[azalea] 10/2/2019 08:53

wilo 101 -1215
Roger that.
Whew. Well after all that, all one needs now is to get the FY 2018 report in April.

[azalea] 10/2/2019 08:21

KS
I think I got my knickers in a twist over the 2018 revenue figures stated by alliance news(AN) and STCM's Rns, They were in fact both correct. The former stating in billions the latter stating in millions. I made the same mistake in comparing STCM 2013 revenue figures with AN 2018 revenue figures. So to put us on the same page, the Revenue figures for 2018 were as stated in the Rns, 32% higher than those for 2017.

[wilo101] 10/2/2019 03:01

There was no conversion of the 5 Old wet lines at all they remain mothballed, instead the further 2 dry lines were completely renovated and rebuilt and put back into production though the grinding mills and storage from the old wet lines are still being used to great effect

[king suarez] 09/2/2019 18:44

No worries. Regardless, for me, I tend to look at operating cash flow to determine health of a business and in H1 18 that was c$6m - of which $2.5m was invested in plant and equipment and $1.8m paying down debt.

H1 17 generated $1.5m operational cashflow and FY $12.2m, so if H2 18 follows suit, with even greater production and prices we could be seeing in the region of $20m operational cashflow for FY 18?

That would support a VERY healthy dividend at this share price.

[azalea] 09/2/2019 13:26

KS
I have just checked the number reported by Alliance news carried by Morningstar, which gave revenues of KTZ 28.34 BILLION. So in checking it against the Rns, they clearly got their numbers wrong; which I failed to notice. That said, I did think at the time of reading the Alliance news figures, the increase was extraordinary, but never thought any more about it. Hey Ho!

[king suarez] 09/2/2019 12:01

Revenue for FY 2013 was 19,469 million KZT
Revenue for FY 2018 was 28,342 million KZT

A 46% increase, not 158 times greater?

Great strides have been made operationally, I agree, but the exchange rate impact is at least partly why the share price has not taken off comparatively?

[azalea] 09/2/2019 10:09

I do not believe the comparisons between H1 profits for 2013 and 2018, will have any bearing on the FY profits for 2018.
in 2013, saw the start of the converting of two of the six wet production lines to dry lines. As each was completed the benefits of increased capacity, efficiencies and lower production costs rose. With design capacity close if not already achieved, STCM is now one of, if not the most efficient producer of cement in Kaz.

The four remaining wet lines have been mothballed.
Exports are up by 50%
Despite the significant fall in exchange 2013, KZT revenues for that year have increased 158 times in 2018; hence I expect a notable improvement in profits after tax. Any increase in dividend would be an extra bonus.

[king suarez] 08/2/2019 16:46

2013 interims - Revenue $54m
- Profit after tax $2.2m
- share price 75p = £164m valuation

2018 interims - Revenue $33m
- Profit after tax $0.2m
- share price 25p = $54m valuation

The change in exchange rates has caused a lower USD valuation, despite revenues (in KZT) and production being much higher in 2018?

[azalea] 08/2/2019 15:18

According to Morningstar data
YES
Since 2013
Amzi Wan Hamzah increased his stake seven times from 23% to 29.1% (63,771,599)

Firebird twice increased its holding of 7,443,963 to 11,768,162 (5.37%)

2/9/15. Coliseum Inv Man hold 5.08%.

19/7/16. Genesis Asset Man reduced its stake to 10,779,523.

20/12/16 SEB acquired 15,336,294. 25/6/18 reduced to 11,373,698 5.19%%
,
8/12/17 Apollo Asia bought 5.13%, now holds 23.9m ( 11%).

Neon Liberty holds 9,679,871 (4.42%)

[king suarez] 08/2/2019 11:11

Did STCM have the same no of shares in issue in 2013 as today? Haven't checked...

[azalea] 08/2/2019 07:45

Between 2013 and 2019 the value of the KZT against the dollar fell from 154 KZT to today's 380 KZT.

However Revenues in 2013 and 2018 were KZT 17912 million and KZT 2834 Billion respectively.

What influence the value of 2018 50% increase exports y-o-y, will have in currency terms, is another factor to take into account.

Edit
If my maths is right
2,834 Bn divided by 17,912m = 158 times increase in KZT revenues for 2018

[jailbird] 07/2/2019 16:24

Good point .. that may explain it

[king suarez] 07/2/2019 16:23

The exchange rate (USD/KZT) has changed quite a bit since 2013 - that's predominantly why the share price was higher then?

[azalea] 07/2/2019 14:30

Data from Morningstar

Prelims for FY 2013. share price 46.5p

Revenues KZT 17912million
Volume sold 1,366,678 tonnes
Average price delivered (ex VAT) KZT 14,245 per tonne

Update 10/1/2019 for year FY 2018. share price circa 21p
Revenues KZT 2834 Billion
volume sold 1.7m tonnes
Average price KZT 16,480 per tonne.

The only thing from the above is we do not know what the profits were/are.
However, we do know that since 2013 the company spent $US millions on converting two of six wet production lines to much more efficient dry lines, whilst mothballing the remaining four wet lines. Making the company one of the most efficient cement manufacturers in KAZ.

The company has installed its own direct power line to the national grid.

Note the current share price is circa half of that in January 2014.

10 years ago the share price was 75p
Beyond that the maximim was 380p.

[jailbird] 07/2/2019 11:19

We have been here before Quite periods when there is no news and after going ex-dividend .. it drops backs as not on investors' radar Hopefully it will consolidate higher this time

[azalea] 07/2/2019 11:13

Quite frankly, I would be happy in the short term with a share price of 30-33p and a 1p div, with the rest spent on reducing/eliminating any remaining debt. Looking to the medium term, a big kicker to the share price will arise when when the 300 rail cars(with a 30 year life span) begin to return a net profit.