Steppe Cement Share Discussion Threads

[celeritas] 07/2/2019 10:49

2p will be a huge dividend, 3p I'll believe it when I see it.
No-one seems to have spotted stcm, its so far under the radar its nigh on invisible.

[azalea] 07/2/2019 08:42

Two early birds up catching the share price first thing this morning 15k & 25k, @ 25p, before it takes off on the next leg. Bid 24p.

[wilo101] 06/2/2019 03:48

FY2019 should be even better than FY2018, as the Kz economy improves, Uzbek demand continues, debt is much lower and the factory keeps reducing its costs, and increasing its efficiency,

[azalea] 05/2/2019 12:07

A dividend of 2p for FY 2018, would certainly attract the attention of analysts and Fund managers similar to Apollo, the latter certainly appears to have to have got their timing right. At the current sp, investors could be looking a paper profit of 20%+ in just 3 months. The big question for me is, what will the forecasts be for FY 2019?

[king suarez] 05/2/2019 10:07

Thanks, remember reading that note. Sounds very promising.

[wilo101] 05/2/2019 09:45

see our 14.01.19, post which reads as follows:

Subject: Kazakhstan || Steppe Cement - 4Q18 trading update; positive end to the year

Operating Results
Steppe Cement
4Q18 trading update; positive end to the year
Steppe Cement's 4Q18 trading update points to a positive end to the year and implies upside risk to our projections. We continue to see Steppe Cement's current valuation and the next 12-month dividend as attractive, with our 12-month Target Price of GBp 33 implying an ETR of 71%, including a 10% dividend yield.
Strong end to the year. According to Steppe Cement, its 2018 cement sales increased 6% YoY to 1.7mnt, while average ex-works cement prices rose 23% YoY to KZT 13,354/t (or 16% YoY to USD 39/t, based on the average exchange rate for the year). The numbers imply that despite negative seasonality, Steppe Cement managed to increase its 4Q18 sales volumes 13% YoY, while achieving a strong price trend. In particular, we estimate that Steppe Cement's ex-works cement prices increased 60% YoY to KZT 15,270/t, or 45% YoY to USD 41/t in 4Q18. We note that Steppe Cement's 2018 volumes and ex-works prices came in slightly above our full-year forecasts.
Supportive export opportunities. According to Steppe Cement, the Kazakhstan cement market declined 4% to 8.6mnt in 2018. Meanwhile, we believe that strong export opportunities, primarily related to Uzbekistan, supported positive price environment. In particular, cement exports from Kazakhstan more than doubled to 2mnt in 2018, while Steppe Cement increased its exports by 50% YoY to 220,000t, according to the company. Longer transportation distances also resulted in stronger growth of delivered prices compared with ex-works prices. In particular, Steppe Cement's delivered prices increased 25% YoY to KZT 16,480/t (+18% to USD 48/t) in 2018, while the company's 2018 revenues rose 32% YoY to KZT 28bn or 24% to USD 82mn. This revenue number exceeds our estimate of USD 77mn. Meanwhile, we believe that upside risks to our profitability assumptions are lower, as higher delivered prices were also associated with higher transportation costs. For this reason we leave our projections unchanged.
Attractive valuation and dividend. We expect that Steppe Cement will distribute at least GBp 2 per share in the 2018 dividend, which implies a 10% yield at the current price. We also believe that the recent decline in Steppe Cement's share price has made its valuation even more attractive. In particular, our forecasts imply that Steppe Cement trades at an over 40% discount to global peers on its 2019 EV/EBITDA of 3.2x and at about 70% discount on EV/capacity of USD 30/t.

Steppe Cement (STCM LN, GBp)
Buy (21 Sep 2016, 12:09 UTC) // Previous: Hold (14 Jul 2016, 13:07 UTC)
Target price, 12mo: 33.00 // Price: 20.50 // Upside: 61% // DY: 10.2% // ETR, 12mo: 71%

Vladimir Bespalov, Equities Analyst
[phone] // [e-mail]

[king suarez] 05/2/2019 09:34

Do you have a link to that forecast pls Wilo?

Many thanks

[wilo101] 05/2/2019 09:26

Even VTB forecast 2p.....

[azalea] 05/2/2019 09:25

Could this be another WCC(West China Cement), my biggest winner of all time, now listed on the H.K. exchange?

[celeritas] 05/2/2019 09:18

I'll be more than happy with 2p.

[wilo101] 05/2/2019 09:16

3p, no typo, minimum 2p, hopefully 3p.

[jailbird] 05/2/2019 09:10

Limit maybe , I am not sure about Fill or kill has never failed me at NMS

[celeritas] 05/2/2019 09:06

No not always jailbird, I've had many a limit buy not filled.

[azalea] 05/2/2019 08:54

All abooaard , the share price train is leaving the station!!

[jailbird] 05/2/2019 08:45

I am trying to understand why ppl say no stock around If do a fill a kill on the NMS (whatever that is normally 20k here ) , it will get filled .. that is my understanding and experience when buying in this way

[mattjos] 05/2/2019 08:17

Even if they keep divi at current rate, it's 4%

[mattjos] 05/2/2019 08:14

No stock again

[azalea] 05/2/2019 08:03

Wilo 101
3p per share? Is that a typo?

The data on Kaz's account current account is extremely encouraging. I am no financial analyst, but the economy appears to be on a strong recovery track. The massive road building programme is bound to boost commercial trade across the country and beyond.

[wilo101] 05/2/2019 05:56

Kazakhstan’s current account resulted in surplus in 2018

According to preliminary data from the National Bank, Kazakhstan’s current account balance resulted in surplus for the first time since 2014. The country’s current account balance rose from deficit of USD5.4bn in 2017 to surplus of USD900m in 2018, the increase was mostly driven by an increase in trade surplus, which rose by 57.9 percent on an annual basis and amounted to USD27.4bn. Exports rose by 25.2 percent year-on-year, due to rising crude oil prices, while imports increased by 7.5 percent in 2018.

[chopsy] 04/2/2019 16:43

Nice finish.

[azalea] 04/2/2019 12:31

Dummy sale of 10k fetched 21.3p. I'm now in a paper profit but looking for a lot more.
Continuing to keep in mind my belief of the 29.1% holding, coming into play as the bottom line continues to improve.

[king suarez] 04/2/2019 12:15

What do we think the dividend might be for 2019? I'm hoping double 2018..

[celeritas] 04/2/2019 12:11

No stock about I see.

[azalea] 04/2/2019 11:29

A 27k buy @ 22p follows a 2k buy @ 22p, this morning.

[azalea] 01/2/2019 13:58

Well that's a bit more like it,I suspect the 100k buy might have triggered two further buys of 15k and 37.5k.