Stanley Gibbons Share Discussion Threads

[kael] 20/4/2004 13:33

Rivaldo - if you havent already, listen to the intercast interview.

[xdavid] 20/4/2004 12:55

...how do you delete a message?..

[xdavid] 20/4/2004 11:35

Hi Rivaldo

Good question on whether the internal revaluation could be incorporated into accounts. One for Richard Purvis (investor relations). Why have an internal revaluation though? Unless it's just a 'heads up' for the external one 2 years later?

Regarding the quote about the £4M stock being worth £16M, my take on this was that it was Michael Hall just suggesting how they would manage to maintain their excellent 60% margin. In theory, they are sitting on a 300% markup before costs. That's incredible in any business...

[smow1] 20/4/2004 10:42

Think market for all small caps has been very poor for last few weeks with people taking profits all over the place at the thought of the US putting up interest rates by 0.25%. Makes no sense to me as interest rates will only go up if the economy is strong and growing - so would be a positive and not a negative sign. Sure buyers will return in droves when the market calms down and then SGI will look a real bargain at the current price.

[ukhawk] 20/4/2004 10:42

AND it's now only 8 weeks to the end of the lock-in period for the shareholding in Provide Commerce !!!

[rivaldo] 20/4/2004 10:13

Many thx for all the replies - great stuff. The portfolio would have to be held at the lower of cost or net realisable value I suppose. I haven't seen their full accounts yet for the accounting policy, but I assume that it can't be revalued up to the full £16m as an investment property portfolio could periodically?

Xdavid, at least the reference collection revaluation would add a useful amount to NAV, but would they really be able to incorporate this into the interims based purely on an internal non-independent valuation, and also bearing in mind the interims will be unaudited?

I'm also surprised the share price hasn't reacted further to the AGM statement AND the great results, AND the notification by Morgan Stanley that they hold 3.2% of SGI now. I'm looking for a retracement to 90p.

[xdavid] 20/4/2004 09:54

I have seen a message reporting a comment by Michael Hall that the £4M stock (in accounts) is worth £16M. However, the upcoming revaluation is in connection with the 'Reference Collection', down separately on accounts as value 538K. All additions to the reference collection are automatically marked down to 50% of purchase price to allow for "handling" and depreciation added annually thereafter. This then does not reflect any increase in value of the same collection. It was last revalued in 2001 and is due for revaluation internally in June this year and then an external revaluation in June 2006. Presumably the result of the internal revaluation will be incorporated into the interim results due 30th July.

[nurdin] 20/4/2004 09:48

Rivaldo
The CEO recently mentioned that their portfolio of stamps and other collectable items is worth £16m..but under the rules they are required to show only the book value when calculating the asset value.Of course this excludes cash balances,freehold property and the PRVD investment.At the last results the overall NAV was stated as 37p per share.

[orange1] 20/4/2004 09:38

>rivaldo

From memory it derives from a conversation that one of the posters had with one of the directors shortly after the results. It remains to be seen whether or not this revaluation will ever formally be adopted in the accounts.

[smow1] 20/4/2004 09:34

They did mention revaluing the portfolio but don't remember what value they thought it would be afterwards.

Surprised at muted response so far to the AGM - would have expected a fast rise back-up with the figures mentioned as these look good for a vastly increased EPS at the next set of results. Plus we have the large one off divi when they sell-up in the US. Think management knocked investor confidence with the share buy-backs being used to take out their options. Hopefully people will return soon.

An RNS near the results saying they will be ahead of expections and some coverage in the tip sheets would help.

[rivaldo] 20/4/2004 09:18

Since this is such a long thread, could I be lazy and ask a question - I believe someone earlier mentioned that SGI might be revaluing their portfolio up from around £4m, and that it might now be worth £16m? If so, this would take the NAV up around the market cap!

Could someone confirm where this came from as I couldn't see it in the results RNS, and if so when it might take place etc - or is my memory completely failing me and I'm talking complete rot?

[kael] 19/4/2004 16:27

Well the descrepency conerning the dates is normal - it just means the deal was done before any shares were traded - pretty normal really. MSSl knew the shares were going to be put to the market. I think this RNS now means we have all of those large trades accounted for finally! So now that buybacks, options and institutional investment shanannigans has seemingly come to end, its time to get back to putting SGI on a fair valuation!

[orange1] 19/4/2004 11:27

So now we know where those Leonard Licht shares went. This has been disclosed today:

RNS Number:7371X
Stanley Gibbons Group Limited
19 April 2004


The Stanley Gibbons Group Limited
("Stanley Gibbons" or "the Company")

Holding in Company


The Company has been informed that on 5 April 2004 Morgan Stanley Securities
Limited ("MSSL") acquired an interest in Stanley Gibbons that resulted in a
total holding of 780,000 shares, representing approximately 3.2 per cent. of the
issued share capital of the Company. MSSL then acquired further shares on 7
April 2004 that resulted in a total holding of 980,000 shares, representing
approximately 4.02 per cent. of the issued share capital of the Company.

Only thing is L.Licht was supposed to have sold his 790k shares on 7.4 so it doesn't exactly stack up. Anyway, nice to see a new institution on board.

[xdavid] 16/4/2004 23:34

Whatever happened to Mr Leonard Licht's 790,000 shares? If an individual or institution bought these, should we not have had an RNS by now?
Were they just sold on the market?

[kael] 16/4/2004 11:05

Im sure we will ge the commercial mags in on this as well - doing their updates, etc. I would love to see more instituitions buying in :)

[clocktower] 16/4/2004 10:17

lets look forward to breaking the £1 level before to long..may falter a bit as it hits it but I do not doubt it will before long.

[ukhawk] 16/4/2004 09:21

There's a small article about SGI in The Times today under the "Talking Points" headline. Nothing new, but positive sentiment nonetheless.

[rivaldo] 16/4/2004 09:09

I was lucky enough to pick up 8,000 of these straight after the AGM RNS, having watched them since 45p on nurdin's rec and done nothing about them. The unjustified retracement seemed to me to be just small profit-taking and a reaction to the buyback/directors' sale combo.

Anyway, with the PVRD proceeds arriving relatively soon and stripping those out of the m/cap the P/E looks pretty cheap IMO. Here's UK-Analysts's view today - back to 90p soon for a forward P/E of just less than 13 (and that's ignoring the PVRD cash)?

"Stanley Gibbons announced that its first quarter sales were 20% ahead of this time last year. Long time bulls Seymour Pierce argued that this at worst underpinned forecasts (1.9 million pre-tax and earnings of 5.3p for calendar 2004 rising to 2.5 million pounds and 7p respectively in 2005) and hence the maintenance of a "buy" stance."

[cambium] 15/4/2004 22:51

It has broken the 50 day sma and has rebounded sharply. Text book stuff

[clocktower] 15/4/2004 13:14

Sound and solid Kael this one.

[kael] 15/4/2004 12:59

The buybacks are just that, it will always be a moot topic, but imo it is a good sign.

[kael] 15/4/2004 12:55

well popgun, i take "in line" as meaning they will beat expectations! SGI likes to surprise the market...in a good way! today is a good example of that - 20% increase in turnover!

[clocktower] 15/4/2004 12:51

I do like leaving a profit for others Kael but on reflection I wish it had been less. i did sell some much higher and purchased a few back for less as I informed the board. Stupid me but still cheap and less than I sold some for:-)) Hindsight eh!!

[popgun] 15/4/2004 12:49

Any thoughts on the 15% extra buybacks by the way?