Stanley Gibbons Share Discussion Threads

[kael] 06/4/2004 12:07

Well is this as good as its gonna get? Strip out the divi - give a conservative estimate of 8p and you would actually be buying SGI today on a foward PE of 11 (assuming 6p eps this year) take that foward another year and it drops to a huge PE of 8. um..HELLO!

[shanklin] 06/4/2004 06:50

Kael

Having been on holiday at the time the results, I bought in at current levels.

I have no intention of selling and look forward to the AGM.

Not sure about a Grolsch at this time of the morning, but with jazz playing in the background and a cup of tea, I do feel very relaxed :-)

Best wishes. Cheers, Martin

[kael] 05/4/2004 20:32

Being broker to broker trades and the fact that CSCS is no longer dealing in SGI, I think you can count those 2x2.5 mil trades as having zero impact on current trading. Given that most of the actual retail trades took place at 78p - 90p. 80p actually seems quite reasonable.
There is no doubt that the directors would have wanted the best short term price for their shares - but given they still have substantial holdings, I wouldnt say they have done anything out of the ordinary - Im sure lots of people took the opportunity to bank some cash...

I agree the buybacks could and should of been handled better - but the directors were granted options and such like, so its their entitlement to take them up.

I also believe that during buybacks share prices stagnate but once they are completed the share price tends to rise.

People are quick to attack directors for selling their shares, imo they are banking well earned profits, unless of course you think growth of 84% last year wasnt good enough!

The price was also up today.

Have a Grolsch and relax a bit ;)

[shanklin] 05/4/2004 18:18

Suggests to me that the recent buy-backs undertaken from the directors, at 80p, should have happened at the market price which, for bulk sales, appears to be 70p.

Still much less than impressed by this less than persil-white buy-back activity which, on 1.32 Million shares seems to have cost shareholders (other than those who benefitted directly), an extra £132K.

[nurdin] 05/4/2004 16:34

Sorry havent been around a lot...
Kael..yes I do but admit to taking some profit at 88p.Still hold a good chunk though.Might top up again if they go down any further.

[kael] 05/4/2004 16:29

but surely we should get an RNS at some point?

[kael] 05/4/2004 16:28

CT it must have something to do with CS leaving SGI, but it is bizarre.

[clocktower] 05/4/2004 16:24

What do you make of those two 2.5m B trades?

[dbcnotts] 05/4/2004 09:37

I'm not sure that a revaluation of the reference collection will be significant to how valuation of the company is perceived. It's a bit like occupying a high value property. Unless you are thinking of mpving out and realising its value it doesn't have any impact on that stream of discounted cash flows!

What it might do is reinforce whatever lessons the SG Stamp Index is indicating and may encourage some more serious collectors / investors into stamps.

[kael] 03/4/2004 18:16

Hectorp - they revalue externally every five years but conduct an internal review in the third - which I think is fair play really. Considering the in house experts have been with SGI for donkeys years I dont think their findings will be contested. The reason I am expecting the valuation to increase significantly is because as far as I can see, the stamp market has done exactly that.

edit - and as an aside the art market is considerably different from the stamp market...unless of course the art market has a top 100! Nurdin is also right - MH stated that the market value of the stock held is roughly £16million.



So from the above graph 240 - 360 in 6 years - not a bad return eh?



then again...I think I prefer the autograph market!

[kael] 03/4/2004 18:14

What I also find quite interesting, is that according to the accounts - they have been acquiring a lot more stock - my guess, in anticipation to this review.
Nurdin do you still hold SGI?

[hectorp] 03/4/2004 18:13

Maybe he's right.. its the only real name in world stamps and I've collected since I was a boy. But I did not buy this stock as I missed the hoo-ha. This company attracts conservative people with cash to pay for good stams - the product. Millions of customers. .
- I like the idea they can revalue their reference collection themselves..could add to the share price..
but better if that could be done independently. A law unto ones self can make wrong decisions here.
BUT large revaluations of 'collectables' over 3 eyars time should be significant.. maybe 30%?
as a fine art collector ( paintings) two of my works bought in 1987-90 sold recently at only 100% gains. New 731i Beamer from one painting's not too bad.. Only 8% a year. People are wrong to thik collectabls always rocket, most years they only do 2-3%. Many years they fall back. But I'd expect stamps since 2000 to have done fairly well.

[nurdin] 03/4/2004 18:05

When I asked the question to the CEO about a month ago,he quoted me a figure of £16m.He also said the brand name alone is worth more than the current market cap of company!

[kael] 03/4/2004 18:01

Well just checked through the full year report (again) and was happy to find that they will be reviewing the value of their reference collection this year. Given that the last time this collection was valued was in June 2001, I expect the collection to be worth considerably more 3 years later! I expect that we will get this revaluation in the Interim accounts, should prove interesting when valueing the company!

[smow1] 02/4/2004 17:09

AGM in just two weeks. Would expect good news on trading and on the special dividend after they sell off their US stake.

[cambium] 02/4/2004 16:47

My guess it will cross its 50 day moving average then rebound sharply.

[kael] 02/4/2004 15:18

well they probably dont need to have same time stamp, Im probably the one who is wrong - just noticed wins moved onto sell - Im guessing this is the bottom (or thereabouts!).

[kael] 02/4/2004 14:42

how bizarre is that? I thought rollovers have to have same timestamp.

[daza75] 02/4/2004 14:41

ME OTHER 10K HAS JUST APPEARED!

[shanklin] 02/4/2004 13:34

This was the option being exercised.

[shanklin] 02/4/2004 13:28

No worries Kael, will wait for more RNSs to emerge.

[kael] 02/4/2004 13:25

Take GMG as an example teir price dropped from 72ish to 60p and only then did the buybacks happen.

edit - why didnt I put that all in one post :/

[kael] 02/4/2004 13:24

SHanklin they wouldnt want to move the price up during buybacks no company ever wants to do that during buybacks.

[kael] 02/4/2004 13:22

ah hold on...think i got it - they arent tradable until 7th april - does that mean they cant be cancelled till then - think it does. thus all in all - its evens andwe wont see RNS till 7th.