Stanley Gibbons Share Discussion Threads

[smow1] 17/3/2004 16:10

Would have thought demand from China and rest of Asia would boost prices rapidly, and hence profits, even without ageing population returning to stamps. Looks good on all fronts.

Lots of buys going through again today. Surprised not ticked up more. next share buy back should be interesting as will hopefully be in open market this time. Another 2.3M shares to be purchased yet + large dividend to come.

[popgun] 17/3/2004 14:40

Thanks Kael, much appreciated.

[kael] 17/3/2004 13:19

Also stamp collecting is very much taken up as a child but left alone until there is more time to concentreate on such things - he highlighted the benefits that an ageing poopulation would bring - childhood collectors would return to their hobby - I mentioned something like this before, as I feel the same - I use to collect but now time doesnt allow it, when I get a little bit older Im sure I will return to it.

[kael] 17/3/2004 13:13

Around a 10p dividend. He seemed a very shrewd character, growth prospects were very encouraging - a lot of possibilities to explore including youth market. Market value of stamp stock is valued at £16million. Mood overall was very good, it was recorded so you can have a look there.

[popgun] 17/3/2004 12:39

I couldn't make the interview -- did anyone else and what were the main points/mood?

[intercasta] 17/3/2004 10:39

Don't forget, the interview with Michael Hall CEO of Stanley Gibbons will be today (Wednesday 17th March) at 11am. to log in directly or to download the Hotcomm conference light software for optimum audio.

PatriciaB (ADVFN)

[cockneyrebel] 17/3/2004 09:59

Well as I've said all along, I think these will be at a new high come the AGM. Newsflow moves shares and there's bound to be good news pushed from the AGM after this performance.

Pretty obvious that the sale of PVRD is going to happen come June and that's going to reduce the PE and the eps for the year ahead is going to rise significantly.

3.49P eps the year gone. 5.2p forecast for this year (which looks very conservative). So currently we are looking at 50% growth. Around 14p a share reduction in the issued share capital looks likely from the cash and PVRD return so the stripped out mid price today is around 66p.

Basically, today you are buying 50% eps growth on a PE of 12.6.

And it isn't flash in the pan growth, the last 4 years earnings growth has bee impressive: -0.6p, -0.24p, 1.94p, 3.49p.

Still very cheap in my opinion, more re-rating to come I'd say, and I'd expect investors would want to be holding at the AGM to benefit from any trading update and liquidation of PVRD timing perhaps.

CR

CR

[dwnash] 17/3/2004 08:56

CT.
Thanks for that info, was not thinking at the time they were from Ch.Isles.

[gateside] 17/3/2004 08:47

Is the 'chat room' today or tommorrow?

As it still says... Thursday March 17th.

Thursday is the 18th. ???

[clocktower] 17/3/2004 08:43

dwnash..

Just one thing...Capital Gains Tax..Tim Dunningham lives in the Channel Islands..No Capital Gains Tax..not sure if Paul lives there but if he does then same applies or he may use a offshore trust so will also pay no gains tax.

Will this be one of the few shares that rise when director is in the chat room?

Long Term value yes imo..Short term: better elsewhere imo. I will buy more back if the price slips but otherwise good luck to all, as I to will be pleased to see the share price rise. However, I am happy with profits already made.

[dwnash] 16/3/2004 23:43

CR.
As you say directors have their own agenda, and it was ever so conveinient for Fraser to let the company have their shares back, with little or no hassle.

He could'nt go over the figure of being put in a position of having to make a bid, and you cant tell me he did'nt know that while the share was rising, there was no better timing than now to let Gibbons have their shares back, capital gains will be paid in April on his gains,but theres a nice feeling in paying Tax. If you've made a Tax position , you've earnt it, and the residue is banked as well.

The timeing of the share options was perfect,it would have been no good over 6 months ago, as he would have had to let them go at say 25p or more. It has meant a small dilution to us in the short term, but if we are holding, we shall reap the rewards in the long run.

I still beleive this will grow if the m/m's leave it to run its natural course.

I have happened to check my USA. stamps value update and since the 2002 prices to now, they have grown some 50% or more.so that tells you a lot.

[cockneyrebel] 16/3/2004 21:35

Gengulphus - we agree! :-)

Sometimes directors decide to sell shares on what looks like a decent high but without thinking or caring whether there will be an even greater high in the future. We all have to live and enjoy ourselves. The ultimate conclusion would be that directors of the best company ever, where the chart constantly rose would never ever sell and die with their certificates or only sell in retirement. Director sells don't necessarily mean anything bad.

A good illustration would be Rob Ward of Clarkson, their FD. He sold around 250K shares in the company at 220p in April. Surely the FD knows the company as well as anyone else. Yet in July the company said results would be significantly ahead of market expectations and the share price has since reached 550p.

CR

[kael] 16/3/2004 20:37

There is no problem - some posters however thrive creating problems where there are none. Value is what this share is all about. If the AGM brings with it an upbeat trading statement i think we will see that PE of 14 look quite ridiculous.

[tom.muir] 16/3/2004 19:24

I can't see why the Directors' selling at this point should be a problem. They are not exactly in the ' fat cat ' league - Fraser's total package last year was a fairly modest £94k. Considering the progress made I don't begrudge him cashing in a few of his shares - he still has a very significant holding. Tom

[smow1] 16/3/2004 17:40

122K buys at the end of the day. On any other day this would have been up 5p not down. A further 2.3M share buy backs to come yet and the div and the AGM. Should move forward strongly from this point.

[smow1] 16/3/2004 14:59

90K+ buys today vs only 40K sells if you ignore the share buy back sale this morning. US market opened up way in the blue. Expect sharp rise here if stays this way.

[kael] 16/3/2004 14:57

Correct Gengulphus - it is all a case of "how many shares were available in the market" - the answer is simply - not very much - hence director sells were actuallyu necessary for the buyback to go ahead - in the long run it works better for share holders. This is why the share price will remain in narrow range until buybacks are finished...hopefully in time for trading statement. I am curious about the PRVD stake, surely that will be returned to shareholders as a special dividend? Ill be sure to ask - assuming it is actually Wednesday!

[gengulphus] 16/3/2004 14:41

"What do you guys make of the annoucement?"

Looks harmless enough to me.

Paul Fraser's holding was big enough to be an obstacle to the share buyback. If he didn't sell to the company, then either the buyback wouldn't proceed, or he would have to launch a bid, or he would have to get into a mass of bureaucracy with the Takeover Panel, getting "whitewash" resolutions from the other shareholders, etc. Him selling 7.2% of his shares to the company clears that obstacle, and selling much less would not have done so - i.e. he doesn't seem to be using it as an excuse to sell a lot more than were really needed.

As for the timing of the sale, if the buyback resolution followed the normal pattern, the price the company pays will be limited to 105% of the average of the last five days' closing prices. When the share price is rising rapidly, this makes buybacks difficult, because the maximum the company can pay may be less than the current market price. So I'm not all that surprised that it hasn't happened until recently - there may have been a few other opportunities in the last few months, but not many and probably only lasting a couple of days each.

Timothy Dunningham's sale is not forced by the 30% limit. But he is the only other director with a major shareholding, and he has sold a similar proportion (7.7%) to Paul Fraser. This looks to me like the result of the two agreeing that they should both accept lower holdings to help the buyback along, not someone particularly anxious to sell out.

At 50% of his holding, Stephen Feigen's sale is comparatively large. But his holding was not very large to start with, and he could very easily just be taking the opportunity to raise 20,000 pounds cash he needs elsewhere. And if he is selling down because he doesn't like the prospects of the company, he's the only director doing so - and I'm sure Paul Fraser and Timothy Dunningham could have sold significantly more (say 10%+ of their holdings) if they had wanted to.

So I don't see these director sales as very significant in themselves. On the other hand, any further sales should be regarded a bit more seriously - at least until share buybacks have taken Paul Fraser's holding to the "nudging 30%" point again.

Note by the way that the number of shares announced as having been bought back is 1,322,394, while the total number the directors sold was 775,000. So there were also significant market purchases from people other than the directors, a net total of 547,394 shares - somewhat over 2% of the company. Looks like the company is absorbing sales from people who want to take profits at this stage...

Gengulphus

[nuttynige] 16/3/2004 14:37

so, is it wednesday, which is the 17th? or is it thursday the 18th? former i think.

[smow1] 16/3/2004 12:59

Hoping that SGI turn their website into the Ebay of stamp collecting. Asian collectors will look to web for purchasing stamps - so SGI should aim to be the central hub for this activity with its world renown brand name and large stock levels. Plenty of growth available for next couple of years to drive this share seriously forward.

We all seem to be forgetting that in a multi billion $ market SGI currently have a very tiny single digit percentage. So they won't have to grow much to see a large return to the bottom line. A HRN in the making.

[orange1] 16/3/2004 12:34

The market in the shares is effectively in the company's control now if they are to pursue their share buying. All sales will be mopped up by the company. And I can't think that they will want to be seen to be buying shares at a price much lower than 80p the price which the directors were paid for their shares.
They could on the other hand argue that buying shares at a price lower than 80p represents an even better deal for the shareholders but somehow I don't think they will want to pursue that line of reasoning.
So all in all the company will argue that buying shares at 80p was a good deal for all sharholders. They will try and back that argument up, I feel, through word and deed.

[smow1] 16/3/2004 12:25

I see a 50% upside, decent dividend, share buy backs, expanding sales into China and Asia, booming stamp prices and fantastic AGM ahead. Not sure what shares offer better value currently. Easy to jump about but hard to find solid growth companies with such good prospects. Buying way ahead of selling today in a bad day for the markets, so expect large mark-up once the markets recover and a fast move towards £1 by the AGM. Sell now and miss out.