Stanley Gibbons Share Discussion Threads

[kael] 14/4/2004 17:14

I think much of the buybacks have already happened xdavid - they probably have about (600K in the bank left and they like to keep some money aside for buying up stock)...Tomorrow is AGM and they will also release a trading statement with it - I expect this to be positive, saying they will meet expectations - this is what they usually say, but when they do say this they usually beat expectations. With SGI I take "we will meet expectations" as that they are ahead of them - MH does say he likes to surprise the market.

The windfall would be around 7p - 10p, this is something I prefer as it grabs the attention of passer-bys and therefore more research is carried out and thus naturally more future investment. It is also is a winner with the media. 1.5p full year divi is fair enough - they need to have some cash left! Although it is entirely possible they could reach 2p but I think that figure is too high for the moment.

So after tomroow we have the 14th of June to look foward to, plus any media attention - then results in July along with I nice bonus I hope :)

[xdavid] 14/4/2004 16:34

SGI statements tend to be fairly cautious so I cannot see them saying anything about forecasts at such an early stage in the year. It would be nice though to get confirmation that the year has started as well as the last one finished:

"...best two months trade during November and December that the Group has experienced in its recent history"

Considering how slow the start of last year was, a comment like that would bode well!

I would also like a clear statement about how money will be returned when the board decide to sell PRVD. Personally, I would be happy for them to stretch any return over a year or so rather than a single 'windfall'. Also, the 2% basic divi is a bit miserable considering how cash generative they are. We could do with a better figure being confirmed for this.

I see the MMs gave up and had to move the price down. A nice statement tomorrow saying buybacks would be taking place at this price would be nice to create a 'bottom'. Stop all those people sitting at the side watching.

[kael] 14/4/2004 15:36

Well xdavid, it will all be made crystal clear tomorrow - if its a bullish statement and forecasts will be met - then everything is a.ok in my book. Buybacks always lead to strange dealings going on - it is doubly intriguing with the appearance of instituitons on the scene. Options at 70p was it? Institutions buying in at 70p too... The price may have gotten ahead of itself post results, buybacks were put through, directors sold options, Instutions could mull over the data and get in at a significantly reduced price. While I'm not usually one for believing in too much price manipulation, this case seems to be pretty obvious as to what has been happening to the price and for what reasons.

You also have to consider how quickly sentiment can change. The offer of 10% back on your investment in a few months plus any gains in the share price plus buying a slice in a great growing company is enough for many people to invest!

[xdavid] 14/4/2004 14:34

Were those 7,000 & 10,000 trades buybacks to support the price before the AGM? Something funny going on...

[xdavid] 14/4/2004 14:02

Well at least the MMs have stopped stepping the price down and are now attempting to support it ('mid' price is above the ask of 69.2) similar to much of yesterday. A bit late though, i think the short term damage to sentiment is done. It'll take a good rally I think to get the momentum and good faith back up.

[kael] 14/4/2004 10:53

Well I am surprised to see little buying going on before tomorrows AGM and trading statement. Is eveyone waiting to buy on the news?

[kael] 09/4/2004 01:04

Well I am expecting at least 1.3p - 1.5p EPS this half year with 4 - 4.5p in the second half, admitedly the low end estimates seem particularly likely, but if the stamp market in particular is strong, together with more cost cutting, I believe the upper ranges are achievable, giving a maximum 6p EPS.

[xdavid] 08/4/2004 18:33

Regarding expectations, I was particularly intrigued by this quote from the chairman in the Annual Report:

"Despite a challenging trading environment in the first four months of the year, the benefits from the implementation of our business plan have come to fruition as the year progressed cumulating in the best two months trade during November and December that the Group has experienced in its recent history."

So despite having struggled in the first third of the year, they still managed 80% earnings growth by the end!

I revisited the June interim results to see if I could put any more figures on this:

Sales for the first 6 months: £3.8M (down 4.7% on same period in 2002)
Eps: 0.95p
Cash increase: +£0.35M on previous year end

By the end of the year:

Sales for last 6 months: £4.8M
EPS final 6 months: 2.65p
Cash increase: +£0.83M over June balance

I would hate to be so crude as to just project forward from the final 6 months but it was an impressive performance. Also worth noting is the 'gearing' in sales once they get over a base amount. I.e. a 26% increase in sales for the final 6 months converted to a 180% increase in earnings and 140% increase in cash.

[kael] 08/4/2004 17:50

yep thought we would get one. well have a good easter everyone, lets hope things get better next week!

[tom.muir] 08/4/2004 17:40

An RNS just issued confirming that Licht has disposed of his holding and has no interest in the Company.

[kael] 08/4/2004 17:06

Well I've held from the early 50's and bought on the way up and on the way down. AGM next thursday and wouldnt be surprised to see it tipped again, or reviewed at the very least. Further guidance on the dividend would be nice also. The emat of the meal should be the trading update which I expect to be ahead of expectations - given the confidence MH has shown.

[xdavid] 08/4/2004 16:27

To anyone who came in new to SGI after the results and watched it drop steadily, can I just say don't worry. Having been in for some time I can assure you that it goes up the other way just as fast! The MMs work it both ways!

I suspect there are a lot watching from the sidelines, waiting for the 'bottom'. And I reckon all this temporary unease for holders will be worth the fun when it's 'us' watching from the sidelines and the rush back begins! I was watching the NMS whilst waiting to top up and you could always tell when a movement was going to happen as the bid NMS would shoot down to around 2-3000 shares before being temporarily suspended altogether. This was exactly the behaviour I saw in the past but in the other direction.

Watching other people panic buy - best sport in the world! :-)

[kael] 08/4/2004 15:35

Anyone know the number of a good loan company...? Borrowing for investment purposes seems like a pretty good idea atm!

[smow1] 08/4/2004 15:16

And not many shares can say that. A 10%+ return (might be 15% at this rate) plus bumper results.

[kael] 08/4/2004 15:14

I dont think we will have a mark down either but its good to highlight what you are actually buying - you will get back over 10% from the sale of PRVD alone! Dividend wont be payable till after June - I expect we will get the payment along with bumper interim results!

[smow1] 08/4/2004 15:05

Special dividend is a one off from sale of business on Nasdaq - so don't think price will be marked down by the size of the dividend when it occurs. Expect price rise as we near AGM + the special dividend.

[kael] 08/4/2004 14:08

blimey, well Im surprised to say the least to see it fall further - 70p mid now, so in consideration to special divi thats around 62p, erm...have I missed something?

[kael] 08/4/2004 12:54

Ah, didnt think of that! Great stuff popgun! Can you fix the link?

mmm...I've heard of that Jupiter Tyndall Group somewhere before, cant remember where though.

[popgun] 08/4/2004 12:52

Isn't Google wonderful? From :

Leonard was appointed chairman of HgCapital in 2001. He was previously a founding director and vice chairman of Mercury Asset Management, where he worked for 28 years, followed by four years as deputy chairman of Jupiter Tyndall Group. Leonard has held directorships of various public companies, mainly investment trusts and trustee appointments. He maintains an active interest in the markets.



He's a director of Falkland Islands Holdings (FKL) and held 19% as of June 2003.



He also has/had an approx. £5m stake in broker Evolution.

[shanklin] 08/4/2004 06:47

Great analysis Kael

I guess I'd want to reduce my CGT if I needed the cash for something and had held 790K SGI for the last year. Wonder who else he's gotshares in

[kael] 08/4/2004 00:02

Righty! Did a bit more research and I think that 790K B trade was the holding of one Mr Leonard S Licht (who just happens to hold 790K), I expect we will get an RNS with his name in there somewhere tomorrow. He also conducted this same trade (790K), exactly 1 year to the day, last year.

[ukhawk] 07/4/2004 22:13

Kael, yep noticed that, Yahoo up 6% after hours.

[kael] 07/4/2004 22:08

Dont know how relevant it will be tomorrow but yahoo put in a stonking performance achieving 75% eps growth. Seems to me that internet stocks will benefit. It truly is becoming the medium from which to do things and this is coming through to companies who utilize it effectively.

[kael] 07/4/2004 17:12

actually thinking about it again.. werent there 2 375,00ish trades last week as well - maybe that 790,000 today is the movement of those shares. all in all though a hell of a lot of shares changing hands recently

[kael] 07/4/2004 17:04

from one broker to another - there were 2 2.5mil B trades last week at 70p. Then we recieved the notification of instituitional investors - so that 2.5mil went to the german investment house. Then we have another 1mil which went to Framlington and was shown as a X trade@70p. So maybe there is more RNS's to come to balance up the remaining large trades.