Was that guy in the pub Chinese by any chance?What IP :)All the best fella |
DiscoDave4 - 23 Jun 2020 - 18:57:56 - 31477 of 33007 Centrica broker notes 2013/14 - CNA
Happy to help Dio, any newbies should be welcomed!.....unfortunately that’s not the case on this thread.
Ask yourself why? |
- 22 Mar 2022 - 13:07:29 - 8607 of 9038 CENTRICA - CNA
Post 3573 / 3575
Post 3575 posted by DD45 is EXACTLY the same as post 3573 posted by Diggerdog1 and then quickly replaced by whoops. No wonder youâââââââ€53;¬Å¡¬Å¡¬ââââââS64;š¬Å¡¬Å¾¢ve pretended to filter me..... how embarrassing DD45.
I kinda think Iââââââ‚;¬Å¡¬Å¡¬ââââââ€;š¬Å¡¬Å¾¢ve proved my point.... youâââââââ€53;¬Å¡¬Å¡¬ââââââS64;š¬Å¡¬Å¾¢re a compulsive liar and move on !! |
I'll leave it for others here to judge who is the plonker... |
So easy to reel you in :)What share was it now where you looked at the chart bought at what you thought was the low and said exactly what you say for all your gambles - "it will get back to where it was" - but didn't even check the share count had doubled, pmsl.All the best chap. |
LMFAO.
Waiting for Dics0dave47 to come along... |
Wow, really got to you didn't I, sussed you out!.Move on chap and focus on your gambling rather than personal gripes.Filtered |
So much tine spent ranting like a madman. |
 disc0dave45 - 30 Oct 2021 - 19:56:49 - 4184 of 9038 CENTRICA - CNA
Oh dear, another person that believes everything brokers say.
Do you believe this will all of a sudden re-rate form a lowly PE to a highly rated growth and quality stock? (That’s what the brokers are doing, a PE of in excess of the market it is in). It’s a highly regulated (to be more regulated now) very low margin business managed by buffoons with zero strategy.
disc0dave45 - 30 Oct 2021 - 19:52:56 - 4182 of 9038 CENTRICA - CNA
Have zero issues. Never been long, never want to go long, not missed the boat at all, caught my own boat and waiting for the next connection.
You seem worried, why is that?, have you not much conviction left now having doubled?, how high do you think this will go before it corrects again?
disc0dave45 - 30 Oct 2021 - 19:46:50 - 4179 of 9038 CENTRICA - CNA
Been here since late May (circa 55p) so caught the sinking boat just in time thanks. Waiting for it to sink again.
You shouldn’t assume anything until you’ve got your facts together.
Congrats on doubling your money, are you threatened by the facts and a different view?, sounds very much like you are to me.
Anyway, all the best.
disc0dave45 - 30 Oct 2021 - 19:20:47 - 4174 of 9038 CENTRICA - CNA
Also looking at their hedging. They only hedge the energy for customers usage on fixed term contracts (makes sense), the energy for SVT customers is purchased a few years in advance (which they don’t hedge!).
So what headroom do they apply?, doubtful it would be 25% even when allowing for weather variances over the winter months, but the 25% uplift (SVT customers I’ve assumed to increase from 3.2m to 4m) in energy usage would have to be purchased via the OTC (over the counter) at whatever the spot price is at the time!.
So although they stated they are well hedged, they are not hedged at all for their SVT customers energy requirements.
The good news (for energy customers not Centrica) is that the spot price of gas has already reduced 58% from its high in early Oct, at this rate of fall it could be back to normal levels by the end of the year - which is excellent for households but will hit Centrica again as its then unlikely that the cap will be increased sufficiently to recover the losses they have incurred over the higher price period.
Look out for those massive short positions that could be opening in Feb!.
disc0dave45 - 30 Oct 2021 - 19:19:54 - 4173 of 9038 CENTRICA - CNA
Just been checking a few things. They had 3.2 million customers on their SVT in Jan (according to Ofgem data), and I would imagine now that their fixed contracts are a lot more expensive that the SVT numbers are increasing month by month as contracts end. So let’s assume that number has increased to 4 million by the end of the current FY.
Based on my experience and others (from MSE data) the differential between SVT and fixed ranges from £200 pa to £500 pa, let’s say on average £350 pa per customer. For their last quarter that’s a hit of at least £350m. For Q1 next FY it will be the same if not more!.
Should also bear in mind that their margins for SVT used to be double that of their fixed contracts (from historical data which may now not be correct). So the hit to gross margins will be significant IMO, but as ever DYOR.
disc0dave45 - 30 Oct 2021 - 12:34:15 - 32900 of 33007 Centrica broker notes 2013/14 - CNA
Interesting comment wrt Bulb (the 6th largest supplier), this indicates that Centrica don’t have sufficient capacity to accommodate an additional 1.7m customers……..so their headroom is less than 24%, wonder how low it is?.
“the Government has been told none of the larger groups have the capacity to supply so many households at short notice, and has had to investigate other routes to keep Bulb afloat.”
disc0dave45 - 30 Oct 2021 - 11:50:39 - 32898 of 33007 Centrica broker notes 2013/14 - CNA
Also looking at their hedging. They only hedge the energy for customers usage on fixed term contracts (makes sense), the energy for SVT customers is purchased a few years in advance (which they don’t hedge!).
So what headroom do they apply?, doubtful it would be 25% even when allowing for weather variances over the winter months, but the 25% uplift (SVT customers I’ve assumed to increase from 3.2m to 4m) in energy usage would have to be purchased via the OTC (over the counter) at whatever the spot price is at the time!.
So although they stated they are well hedged, they are not hedged at all for their SVT customers energy requirements.
The good news (for energy customers not Centrica) is that the spot price of gas has already reduced 58% from its high in early Oct, at this rate of fall it could be back to normal levels by the end of the year - which is excellent for households but will hit Centrica again as its then unlikely that the cap will be increased sufficiently to recover the losses they have incurred over the higher price period.
Look out for those massive short positions that could be opening in Feb!.
disc0dave45 - 30 Oct 2021 - 11:37:41 - 32897 of 33007 Centrica broker notes 2013/14 - CNA
Just been checking a few things. They had 3.2 million customers on their SVT in Jan (according to Ofgem data), and I would imagine now that their fixed contracts are a lot more expensive that the SVT numbers are increasing month by month as contracts end. So let’s assume that number has increased to 4 million by the end of the current FY.
Based on my experience and others (from MSE data) the differential between SVT and fixed ranges from £200 pa to £500 pa, let’s say on average £350 pa per customer. For their last quarter that’s a hit of at least £350m. For Q1 next FY it will be the same if not more!.
Should also bear in mind that their margins for SVT used to be double that of their fixed contracts (from historical data which may now not be correct). So the hit to gross margins will be significant IMO, but as ever DYOR.
disc0dave45 - 29 Oct 2021 - 23:54:16 - 32894 of 33007 Centrica broker notes 2013/14 - CNA
One for Popeye.
For the past 3 years or so there has been a significant increase in short positions early Feb, before their results. One should keep an eye open….no pun intended :)
disc0dave45 - 29 Oct 2021 - 23:50:34 - 32893 of 33007 Centrica broker notes 2013/14 - CNA
So O’Shea is now interested in buying Bulb Energy. According to the press anyway. Does he know what he’s doing!!. |
I was working with their trt route injectors, simulating BGP route-flap failures, way back when you were working in the supermarket stacking shelves, which you probably are still doing. |
Get over it chap.Don't tell me this is another one where you've done absolutely zero research - simply look at the chart and assume where it's come from it will return, put it on a horse instead fella.Bye |
Hmmm, disc0dave45 last post 31st August, disc0dave46 account set up 1st September.
So yes, the twonk is reborn! |
Spirent still has a strong balance sheet, even if it continued to fund the dividend and buybacks they should still be in a net cash position of at least £50m this year, which is worth approx 10% of the marketcap. Private Equity could be interested at these levels. I took a position yesterday. |
Surely u nothing to do with that twonk disc0dave45? |
Seems priced about right at the moment. Roland Head in his Stocko report reckons an adjusted eps of about 8 cents (based on 20% revenue drop, H1 margins and adj op costs of $300m).If eps for the year is 8c (6.6p), PE of 14x (which is generous given PW's come in 3's) that's 92p.Hopefully for holders there will be a recovery but for me I'll wait for their finals to see how it pans out. |
Nice start, like I said, give it 2 or 3 yrs and over 2 quid again. |
They..successfully concluded..their buy back programme, eh.
A rather strange definition of success. |
China dependence for all companies with a significant part of their revenue now possibly a killer in view of a deterioration in the global political environment. Not surprised at the fall this morning
" A strong pick up in orders from China was expected and this did not materialise as the Chinese Government reduced its spending plans and the general economic landscape there deteriorated. The China market represents a large proportion of revenue which we are now not expecting to receive in this financial year."
Risk of Spirent becoming a politically deflated football? |
I am usually not keen on share buybacks, but in this case the share price was relatively low when undertaken. I bought in at a higher price than most of the buybacks, so providing the company has 'spare' cash and is not funding it by borrowing, I don't mind the BOD buying shares at a lower price than I did. Obviously now would have been a better time but I didn't see this tumble coming and I doubt if the BOD did either. Very easy to say in hindsight.
Bottom line is if you think the company is sound (with low debt which has been my No.1 criteria even before higher interest rates) with good prospects over the next 5 years or so, then it seems a no brainer to me to buy. If you are a trader only looking in terms of months then much more risky. But that's why I'm not a trader... |
Buybacks are the best way yet devised for burning corporate cash! That should be no surprise. Company directors are employed to manage businesses, not to dabble as amateur players on the stock market.
No point in crying over my Spirent shares now. At least the balance sheet is strong, though not so strong as it could have been if the BOD had stuck to the knitting and stayed away from buybacks. The takeaway for me is that it is time to go through the rest of my portfolio and cull those with weak balance sheets BEFORE nemesis strikes.
We have been through a decade and a half of near zero (better than free after inflation) interest rates previously unknown in financial history. That has played hell with capital allocation and sound business management. Those days are over. A lot of companies (and their shareholders) are going to find out the hard way that leverage works in both directions, and can destroy as well as enhance profitability. They are also going to find out the hard way that those happy to lend an umbrella when the sun was shining are nowhere to be found when it starts raining. |
I was tempted here but have exited for a quick profit after some consideration of the below sentence;
"The impact of negative operating leverage will very materially affect operating profit in this financial year."
Got to wait and see what the financials look like / how long this storm will last IMO.
Agree with those commenting on the buyback / capital allocation decisions. Nuts to have blown £56m via buybacks at double the current share price. |
It´s mind blowing that management proceeded with buying back shares as recently as 24 august last (900k worth at 1.53).You gotta wonder about the capital allocation skills of the board.....could nobody call a pause given it was clear that sales forecast had to be drastically reduced. Frankly just p*ss*ng away shareholders funds. |
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