Sdx Energy Share Discussion Threads

[shakeypremis] 26/11/2018 16:05

TGG, I know. That is my only concern here really. PW and his timescales and to be honest he must have known 2 weeks ago it wouldn't go live by year-end. What was he thinking?

[thegreatgeraldo] 26/11/2018 16:03

shakeypremis
26 Nov '18 - 14:53 - 7199 of 7201
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The funny thing is, while we can reel off lists of companies that have screwed up, SDX isn't one of them. Yes PW is overzealous with the timelines

..It's a well run company with great assets..... trouble arises when PW gets in front of a camera. Barely 2 weeks ago, he said SD would be going live at the end of Dec...... what's happened since then?

[dsmith57] 26/11/2018 15:59

It really is hard to contemplate what eventually will cause this share to move. Look at all the positive things that have happened over the past year and here we are at 52 week lows. Even the news to come, and it looks like it while be a while before we get it, doesn’t seem to me to be as earth shattering as that which we saw earlier in the year. Really fed up with this.

[bountyhunter] 26/11/2018 15:16

I wasn't quoting CLNR as a company which has screwed up, just one that is even more frustrating to hold!

[shakeypremis] 26/11/2018 14:53

The funny thing is, while we can reel off lists of companies that have screwed up, SDX isn't one of them. Yes PW is overzealous with the timelines but that is really it and they probably would have got it online if it wasn't for the Egyptian government being so slow.

[bountyhunter] 26/11/2018 14:42

very true, but fortunately some more positive experiences as well, e.g. SQZ, FPM

[ifthecapfits] 26/11/2018 14:31

LOL - SAVP....

I'm sure we all have a long list of frustrations....

[bountyhunter] 26/11/2018 14:02

you should try CLNR, that's even more frustrating!
;-)

[dsmith57] 26/11/2018 13:55

No word for a long while about drilling again for the oil at SD. Very disappointing. No great news flow over the next few months and I am afraid that this will drift down to the mid thirties at least. Without doubt the most infuriating share that I have ever invested in.

[thegreatgeraldo] 26/11/2018 13:30

Last time he opened his gob.....

" small_holding
15 Nov '18 - 12:43 - 7117 of 7193
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121 Oil & Gas presentation, PW was only given 10 minutes

South Disouq due to go live December 28th, it will be tight because they have had permitting issues but they are still confident they can go live in 2018"

[christy41] 26/11/2018 13:18

Latest from PW on Proactive..

[shakeypremis] 26/11/2018 11:22

Tournesol, I wasn't talking about changing current Morocco gas contracts, I was merely saying that perhaps new contracts (that may be signed in the future) would be signed at higher pricing if bottled gas maintains its increase.

[shakeypremis] 26/11/2018 11:22

Tournesol, I wasn't talking about changing current Morocco gas contracts, I was merely saying that perhaps new contracts (that may be signed in the future) would be signed at higher pricing if bottled gas maintains its increase.

[gmr64] 26/11/2018 11:03

STIFEL NOTE ON SDX

3Q results are in line with market expectations with EBITDA of $10.8M vs $10.5M Refinitiv consensus, with c. 25% sequential growth in 3Q. Outlook has been reiterated for the main Egypt assets (NW Gemsa and Meseda) with Morocco just below the 8-10mcf/d sales gas volume for 2018 though with strong new contract wins, and South Disouq first gas now 1H19, with a gas sales agreement now signed.

SDX 3Q results show the operational and financial progress the business is making; there is no comment on the negotiations over acquisition of BP Egypt assets, talks that were terminated on 18 October.
• Production: 3889boe/d 3Q vs 3430boe/d 2Q and 3036boe/d 1Q illustrates the improvement in volumes across both Egypt and Morocco, with new wells and field remediation in Egypt contributing the growth.
• EBITDAX progression also shows the production growth translating into profit and cash: $11M EBITDAX 3Q18, vs $8.6M 2Q and $7.6M 1Q, with EBITDAX/boe up c. 10% at $30.42/boe vs $27.50/boe in 2Q18. The well write-offs in Egypt and Morocco were already disclosed in 2Q18 results. The company maintains its net cash position, c. $18M at end 3Q, the $6M decline vs. 2Q due to, we believe, timing of capex spending, tax payments, and a >$3M working capital build.
• Egypt: Guidance for both NW Gemsa and Meseda has been reiterated, with NW Gemsa at 2kb/d gross vs 1.7kb/d in 2Q18, and Mededa at 802b/d vs 706b/d in 2Q18. The South Ramadan well (SDX 12.75%) is drilling, net cost to SDX is c. $3M, $2M of which will fall in 4Q.
• Morocco: gas price has exceeded $11/mcf in 3Q, offsetting the slightly surprising sequential fall in gas sales, we believe due to fluctuations at the Peugeot plant during its testing phase, given the company has stated production will be just under their 8-10mcf/d range by year end due to the contracted gas sales signed with six new customers in the quarter. The importance of Peugeot in underpinning future gas demand is underlined by two of the new customers: Dicastal, manufacturers of aluminium wheels, and Plastic Ominium, manufacturing plastic car parts, part of the car plant supply chain.
• Outlook has been reiterated except for two points: 1) it is slightly disappointing that South Disouq gas production start-up is pushed into 1H19, though the previously guided December 2018 startup meant little volume produced in 2018. The newly-agreed $2.85/mcf gas price is in line with estimates; 2) Morocco's gas sales run-rate will be just under >8mcf/d by year end, but given the pent-up demand, we are not concerned about gas demand growth in 2019.

[shakeypremis] 26/11/2018 10:51

Given PW's lack of ability to restrain himself on timescales, it might not even get online until H2. Sadly I just cannot trust him on timelines any more.

Still a great investment here though, especially at these prices. Just a big pinch of salt required with his timelines.

[captain james t kirk] 26/11/2018 10:02

If they believe it will be onstream in Qtr 1, then why not be that specific.

[daler1966] 26/11/2018 09:54

Just bought 11000 after reading Malcies comments on SDX

[darola] 26/11/2018 09:47

Good comments from Malcie this morning. Particularly like this but.

”South Disouq may slip into 1H 2019 but only due to extended volumes being catered for and thus a slight delay on the paperwork front as it will become a bigger development than originally anticipated and 50-60 MMcfd will be onstream in Q1 there is no problem there. SDX looks extremely well placed at the moment and expect the next few months to show a significant increase in production along with a new exploration programme as well as new customers roll-outs in Morocco in line with the long term plans.”

[greenrichard] 26/11/2018 09:46

Thanks for the clarification

[shakeypremis] 26/11/2018 09:36

Ah, that's what I've been looking for. I was wondering why PW was going around talking about 5,800boe/d production and then the results today showing only 4,150boe/d. Because the 5,800 figure was WI and not entitlement that would make sense that actual entitlement production was lower as the Egyptian government take circa 50% of what's left over from SDX's WI production.

[greenrichard] 26/11/2018 09:20

In August 2018 presentation - "Current working interest production – 5,878 boepd"



From Q3 results

As a result of the ongoing development drilling and workover programme in North West Gemsa and Meseda, production has increased with actual entitlement production on November 23, for Egypt and Morocco amounting to 4,156 boe/d

Am I missing something (1,722 boepd!) or is there a difference between working interest production and actual entitlement production?

[captain james t kirk] 26/11/2018 09:06

I'm sure I'm not the first to have picked up on it but H1 and not Qtr 1 for S.Disouq
production, with a confirmed gas price of $2.85/mcf

[potential] 26/11/2018 08:53

Brilliant update- over reaction about delay- no big deal! The market is a mechanism to transfer from the inpatient to the patient - let's not forget! I've bought 50k more today :) good luck all.. will be closer to £1 come q1 no doubt!

[wisteria2] 26/11/2018 08:11

Paul Welch, President & CEO of SDX Energy, commented:

"The third quarter of 2018 has been one of the best financial periods in the Company's history, with net revenues up 50% from the same quarter last year. This was achieved by a strong operational performance across our North African portfolio.

In Egypt, we have successfully completed a seven well workover programme at North West Gemsa and expect to achieve average field production of c.4,400 boe/d of light crude oil (SDX net: 2,200 boe/d), in line with Company guidance. At Meseda, the successful ongoing drilling and ESP replacement programmes puts us on track to meet our 2018 guidance of c.3,800 bbl/d of heavy crude oil (SDX net: 732 bbl/d). We made substantial progress at South Disouq during the quarter, and beyond, with a number of important operational milestones achieved including submitting the development lease application to the authorities and agreeing to a gas price of US$2.85/mcf. However, given important design updates to the central processing facility and the expected timing of obtaining final regulatory approvals, the Company now expects first production of 50-60 MMscf/d of conventional natural gas to be achieved at South Disouq during H1 2019.

In Morocco, the 240 km(2) 3D acquisition programme in the Gharb Centre permit has been successfully completed. The total cost for the project is expected to be in line with previous guidance, approximately US$6.0 million, with the acquired data now in the processing phase. In addition, we are very pleased that, with the gas sales contracts currently signed, we have achieved our previous guidance of 8-10 MMscf/d of conventional natural gas as at December 31, 2018. However, due to a delay in the start- up phase with one of these customers, our actual sales are likely to be just below 8 MMscf/d of conventional natural gas at year end.

We continue to see organic growth opportunities across our portfolio in addition to inorganic growth via acquisition or new licensing rounds that will enable us to enhance our scale and generate value for shareholders. We look forward to updating the market on these developments as appropriate."

[greenrichard] 26/11/2018 08:08

Missed guidance and SD not coming online until H1 2019
Back in the drawer for at least 6 months.