Somerfield Share Discussion Threads

[chester] 06/2/2005 17:44

Thanks for the update H.

[faxxer] 06/2/2005 10:09

I also thought Tesco unlikely but then realised that I didn't know of any Somerfield or Kwik Save stores sited close to Tesco. I do however know of two Somerfields close to Sainsburys (Selsdon and Brighton).
Baugur would not be likely to upset the CC IMHO, indeed the Iceland/SOF tie-up has been mooted here many times by Bigface who knows more.

[hatman] 05/2/2005 16:37

So it seems to me that we either get action starting shortly into the trading session on Monday, or at the market open on Wednesday.

[hatman] 05/2/2005 16:36

Looking more closely using one minute charts with MACD, there was no divergence at that 164.25 peak. So we haven't seen the top of this run.

Also, the big ramp from 153.5p to 164.25p took place in five clean waves of activity (you can see this if you use BigCharts.com) and resembles a wave 3. In this case its wave (iii) of iii. We are now in wave (iv) and have (v) to come.

We can expect wave (iv) to be a ratio of wave (ii) in terms of time. Wave (ii) took 10 trading quarter-hours to form. Wave (iv) has lasted 23 quarter-hours and the next time ratio is at 26.18 trading quarter-hours, or about 08.45 on Monday. Let's see if something starts to happen then (no guarantees).

Wave (v) has a good chance of being equal to wave (iii) or about 12p or a target of 171p.

[hatman] 05/2/2005 16:20

I think it extremely unlikely that either Tesco or Baugur are lining up a bit for SOF - such a bid is likely to be rejected by the Competition Commission. There is no harm in the odd bit of bid frenzy, but I do not think that is how we are going to make good profits from SOF.

I am happy with my original projections of a share price between 207p and 259p by June 2005 - targets to be reached in the normal course of share price action. The gains are attractive regardless of a bid or not.

Once we get to June (possibly May) SOF will enter wave 4 of the larger degree, which should be multi-week sideways triangular formation setting up for the final push upwards into wave 5. This triangular action will be yet a further opportunity to top up holdings and make a play for good, swift gains in the last push north.

I cannot come to any further conclusions on the shorter term wave action, and I suspect that the present action is incomplete. We should find out by Wednesday.

[kingdwg] 05/2/2005 09:57

There was certainly some busy trading most of the early morning then it seemed to be further encouraged by a 500,000 O trade. At 159p there were 87 trades of 159 shares followed by 40 of 8000 at the same price.

[kingdwg] 05/2/2005 09:16

Only news I've seen this morning so far was in the Telegraph market report. That reckoned the frenzy was caused by a trader selling 2.5m instead of buying then the scrambling to recover the position, which would have meant buying 5m shares, caused the excitement with other traders mistaking it for stake building. Can't really see that's the whole story. What interested me was that after the price slid back to 159 there was still a lot of support which kept bringing it up over 160 again.

[hatman] 04/2/2005 19:24

If this is wave iii of 3 complete, we have iv and v of 3 to go. Let's see if we can work out the wave targets and time targets.

The larger wave 1 was the move from 125p to the intra day peak at 167, a gain of 42p. It would be unusual for wave 3 to be smaller than wave 1, but not impossible. Wave 3 started from the 148.5p low, so if it is going to be the same size as wave 1, it must end at 190.5p and produce the same 42p gain.

Wave 3 is made up of smaller waves. Wave i was the move from 148.5p to 160p, a gain of 12p. The ramp today peaked at 164.25p, making a gain for wave iii so far of 11p from the 153.25p wave ii low. This could be close enough for iii = i but somehow it doesn't look right.

Also, for the larger wave 3 to reach 190.5p, the final wave v upwards burst has to be about 31.5p from a wave iv triangle low. Interestingly, this is exactly 2.618 times 12p!

I doubt that SOF can produce a swift wave v thrust of 2.618 times wave i without there being confirmed bid activity.

So if this option is correct, we should get some 'news' soon; wave iv is usually equal to wave ii in time; wave ii took two days and three trading hours, and counting this forward from the peak today at 10.00am gives 1.00pm on Tuesday or perhaps first thing Wednesday morning.

This is the best time projection for a wave iv triangle to end, bid activity or not.

The alternative is that the present action is a sub wave of iii, but that also doesn't look right - I'll crunch the numbers just in case.

[kingdwg] 04/2/2005 15:53

Just bought some more, I hope you're right hat or I may sue:-) Seriously with volume approaching 17m there must be something afoot.

[hatman] 04/2/2005 15:21

The ramp this morning took the price up to exactly my original projection for wave iii at 164p and got rejected by an important Gann line declining from the March 2004 peak. I find it very difficult to believe that wave iii could be achieved in such a short space of time, but anything is possible.

If wave iii is not complete, SOF should retest the 164p high this afternoon or early on Monday, and exceed it. If wave iii is complete we have already entered wave iv. As wave ii lasted two days and three trading hours, we can expect wave iv to do the same. If so, wave iv should track sideways in the 159/164 area forming an abcde triangle just below the Gann angle before punching up through on Tuesday or Wednesday next week.

When the next action confirms, we should be able to calculate new price and time projections for the next part of the wave sequence.

[kingdwg] 04/2/2005 12:24

It's gone a bit quiet now, no AFX, anyone know what happened, there must be something at the root of all that excitement.

[faxxer] 04/2/2005 10:29

Hatman, call me old-fashioned but I think the large "O" trades will have something more to do with the rise in share price than the shape of any charts. I think the price is news driven and we may soon know who the "O" trader is.

[chester] 04/2/2005 10:29

UP 6% now. Something going on ?

[chester] 04/2/2005 10:19

excellent H. Once you've crunched those numbers can you post on here. I'm nicely long on these, thanks to you.

[okuta] 04/2/2005 10:17

good man to you Mr.Hatman,fascinating reading,I'm following you on Isys as well,I grabbed a few this morning and happy to hold/regards okuta

[hatman] 04/2/2005 10:08

Yes, this is a nice impulsive upwards ramp. Glad I was able to add yesterday.

This move is bigger than my analysis in post 494 suggested. As a result it looks as though wave iii might extend to 1.618 times wave i, giving higher targets for the rest of the larger five wave action as well.

I'll crunch some numbers later.

[chester] 04/2/2005 09:24

Looks to be behaving as planned H.

[chester] 03/2/2005 12:47

Hope so H.

[hatman] 03/2/2005 11:32

I'm taking that dip to 153.75 as the end of the ABC correction. Time ratios also suggest that this should now be the end. Have added to my holding.

If the ABC has ended, that represents wave ii of v of 3 (of 5). If so, SOF should now head north into wave iii which should be at least as large as wave i or 12p, giving a target of 165/166p. Wave iv should be a flat or triangle given that ii was a zig-zag. Wave iv should therefore be a sideways consolidation lasting three days or so. Then, we get wave v which is likely to be a further push higher of 4.5p suggesting an overall target of 170/171p for the top of v of 3.

[kingdwg] 02/2/2005 16:22

Barclays just dropped under 12% then. Not necessarily what I wanted to hear, still the divvis in the bag and they seem to be holding.

[hatman] 01/2/2005 16:01

Yes, you're right - 2.2 is for the full year.

[kingdwg] 01/2/2005 14:00

0.75p divvi I thought.

[hatman] 01/2/2005 13:27

ABC correction under way. Should last 12 trading hours from today's open. Stock goes xd a 2p divi tomorrow, which should produce wave C down to the 154p area.

[hatman] 01/2/2005 07:16

Closed at the 158p target. Now SOF should form an ABC correction over the next two/three days. Target 154p area.