Somerfield Share Discussion Threads

[faxxer] 07/12/2004 12:48

Nice christmas present! I know that Fidelity extensively use TA and their recent purchase is interesting because it has reversed their selling trend.

Fidelity's stake in Somerfield has declined since 21st May 2002, when they held 64,208,048 shares, to 24th Feb 2004 when they had reduced to 13,072,062. Their recent purchase has put them up to 16,559,104 shares which is 27% above the previous notification. Edward C Johnson 3rd's (a principal shareholder in Fidelity International) personal holdings in Somerfield are included in the notification.

Hatman are you suggesting that holders should sell on retracement after the 23rd Dec?

[hatman] 07/12/2004 12:26

SOF remains in iv of 1 of 3 of 5. This sideways triangular consolidation should last three to four more trading days. Then, SOF should enter v of 1 of 3 of 5 which should produce a run upwards to the 164/171p area by December 23rd.

[303hound] 06/12/2004 18:50

sorry posted twice

[303hound] 06/12/2004 18:50

as you say fax sof is in the right segment and when investors stop chasing the weary old elephants we should see movement here...I personally think the management could help with a decent dividend which incidently would make it much easier to raise further finance which as an expanding company they will need...it would also help this weary old investor.

[faxxer] 06/12/2004 10:16

On another tack Somerfield isn't being given any credit for being in the "right" segment of the retail food market which Tesco and Sainsbury are chasing for the profit that it generates.

[faxxer] 06/12/2004 10:10

Thanks for your analysis hatman. I don't know enough about TA to comment. My instinct is that where it is a successful analysis it must represent buying patterns of people who have done fundamental analysis before the TA signs kick in. If these buyers are going to support the share up to £5.40 I will have to revise my exit point (if I am ever going to exit).

If enough TA support is shown this will be a sure-fire self-fulfilling prophecy and I am not going to argue with that!

[maxharry] 05/12/2004 18:22

wow hatman you must be a millionaire .

Square4 if you looked at the industry index for the multiples you will see that sof are trading well over the last 6 weeks and i can not see that changing going into xmas.
there conversion program is strong and successful and they are well on there way to converting the safeways to sof and trading well.

The company is growing satisfactory for me and we are now seeing the share price moving to take all this into account.

As i have said earlier i can see this testing £2 sooner rather than later and with rumours always in the air i would rather be in than out at the moment.

Good luck

[hatman] 04/12/2004 11:32

SOF is in a major long term bull market, made up of clean five wave advances and three-wave corrections. Longer term price target is way up at 540p or thereabouts.

From the bear market low in October 2002 at 43p, SOF completed a clean five wave advance to the peak at 174p in March 2004, a total rise of 131p over 17 months. This advance was wave 1 of a larger degree pattern.

Then, SOF entered wave 2 made up of a clean ABC decline to 125p on 1st October 2004. This correction lost 49 points over 5 months or 38% of the previous advance over roughly one-third of the time span of the advance. 38.2% is a classic Elliott style Fibonacci retracement.

Now, SOF is wave 3 of this larger degree pattern, which in itself will be made up of five smaller waves of activity.

We are presently in iv of 1 of 5 of 3 of 5.

In this micro pattern,wave i was the jump from 125p to the intraday 140p spike eight days later, a gain of 15p. Wave ii declined to 130p. Usually, but not always, the third wave in a pattern extends to 1.618 times the first wave, and 1.618 times 15p would give a rise of 24.2p from the 130p wave ii low, or 154.2p for the top of wave iii (of 1 of 5 of 3 of 5).

The price presently sits at 154.75p, which indicates the top of wave iii, with iv and v still to come.

More often than not, wave iv is equal in time to wave ii; wave ii took eight trading days, so wave iv is also likely to take eight trading days. Wave iv started on December 1st, so eight trading days gives a target of Monday December 13th for the end of this wave.

When wave ii is a zig-zag (which it was in this case), wave iv is usually a sideways triangle affair; so we can expect SOF to trade broadly sideways until December 13th to complete wave iv. The price range is likely to be 148p/156p.

When wave iv extends, waves v and i tend to equality in time and price; wave i took nine trading days for a rise of 15p, so we should expect SOF to rise 15p to a price target of 163/171p from December 13th to around December 23rd.

By coincidence or force of nature, there is a key Gann angle line at 165p on December 23rd.

That will complete wave 1 of 3 of 5.

After that, SOF will enter wave 2 of 3 of 5 which will entail a price decline back to the 148/154p area over a period of one month.

Then, on or around January 25th 2005, SOF will enter wave 3 of 3 of 5 which should produce a price gain of a further 63p projecting a price target of 211/215p by mid-May 2005.

[square4] 02/12/2004 18:44

Good to see the price rising are you going to sell or hold on?

Anytime I have been in a Somerfield store it was like Yorkshire on a flag day - not a soul to be seen!!!!!!

Would appear that Tesco and Morrison are taking the major share of the market and SOF left to pick up the crumbs!

Let's have your views.

[maxharry] 30/11/2004 22:38

abergele

160p i will only be happy testing £2 and beyond

Has it got the legs!!!

I think so.

come on sof ...........

let the show begin

[abergele] 30/11/2004 19:55

This will be 160p by the end of December 2004,

A little m/m's tooing and frowing but will get there, Barclays have not thrown money away.

[bigface] 29/11/2004 19:09

Doubt it, but SOF is a good bet stuffed with assets worth 220p probably.

[303hound] 29/11/2004 18:42

going up very nicely...I wonder if Sof are going to go for any M&S foodstores?

[bigface] 25/11/2004 15:25

Sold out - couldn't resist short run gain.

[bigface] 22/11/2004 08:11

There was nothing I could do!

[bigface] 18/11/2004 09:05

I am back in SOF for the undervalued assets and leaving BFG alone until the bid situation is clearer.

[kingdwg] 18/11/2004 08:17

Thanks 303, it is looking a bit slack at the moment.

[303hound] 17/11/2004 19:15

I always manage that too but fortunately was away this time...good luck you may have been right.. time will tell

[kingdwg] 17/11/2004 16:09

Hmmm - just knew it!!

[kingdwg] 17/11/2004 08:56

Bigface
Sold some at 143.75 yesterday so watch them fly now.

[bigface] 16/11/2004 22:36

What news are they basing the change of heart - mysterious approach. As ever you have to make up your own mind Kingdwg as the IC seem to be having it both ways.

Mail are saying BFP and SOF may merge.

[kingdwg] 16/11/2004 08:17

That was in the magazine but then yesterday in an email update they said sell.

[bigface] 15/11/2004 22:54

I read it as hold BFG for the bid and SOF was less appetising Kingdwg? I disagree with them about sof being a worse bet that BFG at the present time, thought prefer to buy in after the Bauger Froth has died away.