Somerfield Share Discussion Threads

[kingdwg] 15/11/2004 17:15

IC now says best to sell bfp.
I see an O trade of 250,000 reported at 17:01 could give a bit of a lift tomorrow.

[kingdwg] 13/11/2004 11:30

Well I've subscribed for more years than I can remember and I tend to read between the lines. I'll watch my short term sof holding closely and I'm still hanging on to bfp.

[faxxer] 13/11/2004 10:13

So that's negative for bfp and positive for sof, or am I being too sarcastIC IC IC ?

[kingdwg] 13/11/2004 08:56

IC this morning renews talk of a merger & reckons bfp is "hold for a bid". They're less keen on sof but they've certainly pleased me these last couple of days.

[bigface] 12/11/2004 23:17

Tend to agree faxxer - I though Bauger Grp was genuine at first and resisted the temptation to sell BFG at 105p, but what followed feels like psychological manipulation. Phillip Green made less fuss over his 400p offer for M&S.

The break-up value theory is a curious one buyers negotiating for their share of negative equity. I think I'll quit BFG while I am up.

Currently waiting for an opportunity to buy back into sof for the ultimate asset revaluation.

All the best and thanks for the post

[faxxer] 12/11/2004 22:03

I have to own up to having never stepped inside an Iceland store, mind you last week I saw a lady carrying a "My Mum went to Iceland" carrier bag. They were coming out of ASDA at the time.

Iceland are in a similar position to that of SOF in 2000. SOF's falling sales caused the market to lose confidence and in spite of NAV around 150p at the time they declined in the market to 50p in June 2000. It was much the same story for Arcadia whose share price fell to about 32p.

The market is much more generous to BFP at present but how long will it continue?

I think the deal will falter, the top price looks to be the 110p offered initially. The downside must be much greater than the upside here.

[bigface] 12/11/2004 18:52

Something could happen, but SOF has the assets to hold chancers off and insist on a premium above the "unreported" NAV. When you think BFP is valued at 322m and have a NAV excluding Goodwill and pension deficit of minus 77m what would SOF fetch? Makes you wonder doesn't it.

The BFG has gone on too long and may not even happen at a realistic price. Do you still think the BFG deal will falter faxxer?

[kingdwg] 12/11/2004 15:03

I keep expecting these to take a breather but there seems to be an insatiable appetite for them. Wonder if something's going to break on the weekend.

[old crow] 12/11/2004 11:19

faxxer
Many thanks,sure others will appreciate.

Keep Crowing

[faxxer] 12/11/2004 09:56

old crow:
re pension fund deficit

from the 2003/4 accounts (page 34)
Total market value of assets......................£303.3m
Present value of pension scheme liabilities.......£378.5m
Deficit in pension scheme..........................£75.2m

Pension fund made up of:
Equities...................£187m
Bonds......................£108.2m
Other........................£8.1m

KS and SOF defined benefit schemes are closed. SOF one closed 1999.

[old crow] 12/11/2004 08:42

Thanks Bigface, King.
The Crows like SOF low gearing
but do you have any ideas on the pension fund position.

Keep Crowing

[kingdwg] 12/11/2004 08:27

old crow

It was the Bauger announcement that started the move.

[bigface] 12/11/2004 07:51

My instinct is that SOF is a better bet than BFP. I have made money on BFP three times but have had to work far to hard to stand still. SOF is stuffed with assets and I can't see that the recent deal with WM depletes these.

My prediction of a merger with BFP is still a valid argument, but the collapse in bfp's pension fund has ruined the improvements in their balance sheet values which is the main reason I sold out.

Thanks for your input Kingy & faxxer and keep that cheese old crow.

[old crow] 12/11/2004 07:21

Bigface,yes i did sell 50% holding on BFP yesterday.
King, also been holding SOF for a while,in profit now,
what do you think pushed the price up.

Keep Crowing

[faxxer] 11/11/2004 23:27

A lot of times bigface a lot of times indeed.
I should have followed you out at 150p, indeed we all should have sold at 172p but equally we could have sold on the way up. Trading is good if you have the nerve to catch a change in direction after you have been wrong-footed. If this change of SOF fortunes continues I am hoping for a re-rating that will eclipse the NAV. Approx 75% of institutional holders now, they can't always be wrong can they ?

[bigface] 11/11/2004 20:17

When have you been wrong faxxer.

Old crow bought his cheese back he's not so bad after all. Did you follow bigface out of BFP Old Crowe or are you chancing your arm!!

[kingdwg] 11/11/2004 19:36

Think we've got old crow on board now, welcome in.

Keep crowing.

[303hound] 11/11/2004 18:15

of course it is overdue for a run

[faxxer] 11/11/2004 17:39

Good to see you back bigface. I saw you got out of Courts just in the nick of time too !

I don't see any institutional buying in BFP unlike Somerfield where most of the top 20 holders were overweight and some are still buying. The share is in for a run now IMHO. But then I would say that wouldn't I ?

[bigface] 11/11/2004 11:06

Funds available faxxer - I'd have done better to buy sof at 126 when i wanted too. BFG has been a very annoying ride, but I am out of it and in profit.

[kingdwg] 11/11/2004 08:57

Bit slower off the mark this morning due to that 250k sell I think. Bought more yesterday at 138, may do a few more this morning.

[maxharry] 10/11/2004 19:59

yes i think it is all comming together and in for an up ward trend. The question is at what price will it stop???????

[kingdwg] 10/11/2004 16:34

Don't know why the board is so quiet today, looks like we have some action at last.

[faxxer] 09/11/2004 14:18

And not the first time either hatman. Look at charts for the region around 25th October 2002 when shares in SOF were aggressively sold below their historic lows. Welcome your thoughts on that too. I think it might be called "the Baugur effect".
regards

[hatman] 09/11/2004 13:33

Looking at the action of the past few weeks (and today) I suggest that this stock is being held down by the market probably so that Baugur or another investor can accumulate.