Somerfield Share Discussion Threads

[bigface] 16/1/2005 19:48

Doubt it will make much difference - It is obvious the Safeway format will sap sales relative to capital employed, but long run like sales should improve. Morrisons are having the same difficulty. Nice to see the shift to yellow gradually permeating teh group - my favourite colour. Hope to buy in Mon or Tuesday - just for old times sake - thanks faxxer

[dawntrader] 16/1/2005 19:37

hmmm do you think that this article could have a negative impact? A 6.1 pct drop in the four week christmas period could be bad?

[faxxer] 16/1/2005 11:57

From Scotland on Sunday:
"While Tesco continues to wow the City with its relentless tale of growth, Somerfield's figures are likely to be less impressive. Poor promotions and the distraction of buying 114 stores from Safeway - many of which are in Scotland - knocked the group's sales at the tail end of last year.

JP Morgan analysts reckon the addition of the first 35 Safeway stores could have boosted December sales by as much as £15m.

On a like-for-like basis, industry figures produced last week indicated that Somerfield's sales fell 6.1% over the four-week Christmas spell.

Somerfield traditionally loses market share over Christmas. Nevertheless, first half profits are expected to come in at £21.6m compared with £15.5m a year ago."

[faxxer] 14/1/2005 10:51

Hi Bigface
Market trying to get some more cheap shares at present. Results should blow present levels away esp. if divi increased substantially (about time I think).

[bigface] 14/1/2005 09:10

Yawn!!

Hi faxxer - I can see these being good figures - and a sP hike - not holding, but would be tempted in if we get some help in the early part of next week.

Good luck anyway

[meenan] 14/1/2005 08:47

SOF ended at 161 last night but opened at 156 showing a penny drop.

Can anyone explain this?

[hatman] 22/12/2004 18:27

Looks like the quick pop to 166p (not tradeable) was wave v of 1 of 3 of 5; if so, SOF now enters an ABC correction back to the 148/154 area. I have taken profits.

[bigface] 21/12/2004 19:14

I'll look it up thanks - psn went well too - not holding now. All the best.

[kingdwg] 21/12/2004 18:57

Will do Bigface, thanks. Bit loaded with banks and grocers at the moment though and slowly reinvesting in amt which is well worth a look.

[bigface] 21/12/2004 18:48

faxxer & Kingy - gwp may be worth you having a look (if you havn't already)

[faxxer] 20/12/2004 10:25

I posted the following on the Ramco site as a poster had virus/worm infection on his computer. My advice is to protect your computer with Winpatrol.
Use it to review installed and running software and services, internet helpers and cookies.

Perhaps first of all you should install a firewall. If you haven't done so check out your computer's security on the internet with Sygate's scan:
You can download their free firewall here:

I use AVG / Grisoft anti-virus. It did not however detect that defragfat32.exe was a malicious program that was installed. I was alerted to its activity by Sygate firewall and Winpatrol. AVG found the precursor files which created defragfat32.exe and fixed them but did not delete defragfat32.exe and did not find it malicious enough to warn me. Without the other two programs I would have had my system security compromised. I imagine that this kind of attack will fool most home systems. The first line of defence must be a thoroughly tested firewall.

Good luck all...

[abergele] 19/12/2004 23:52

blunderbuss,
dont question him, he knows his onions.

[blunderbuss] 18/12/2004 10:37

Hatman - re your interesting post 443. Why do you consider wave 4 to have started on Dec 1 and not 2?

[hatman] 18/12/2004 08:06

Still on target for the 164/171 area by December 23rd. There is an important Gann line at 165p and I hope to sell my holdings at any price above 164p.

Then, the price will return to the 148/154p area by January 25th 2005. I shall buy at this point for wave 3, which should propel the shares towards the 212p area.

[neelix66] 17/12/2004 10:47

Looking good Hatman... you got any more tips ;)

[abergele] 17/12/2004 09:06

Hatman,
Well forcast, I myself said 160p by Xmas, but it seems way out now.....

nice Crissey present for the dour holders....IMHO

[hatman] 16/12/2004 03:52

Probability that we have entered v of 1 of 3 of 5 one day later than expected. The low for iv was 154p and we can expect v to rise at least the same amount as i, or 15p, taking between five and eight days to achieve this.

Then, SOF will decline back to the 148/154p area over the course of one month.

[faxxer] 16/12/2004 03:37

I think we will blunderbuss. The market hasn't been very generous today in view of the trades after the bell. The six trades totalled 1,670,708. Yesterday and today were significant days as IG Index closed Dec04 period on 14th. I didn't roll over all my positions in SOF regrettably. Maybe another RNS is due from one of the red flashers above. Interesting to see the professionals moving in on SOF.

[blunderbuss] 15/12/2004 21:17

There seems to be a daily pattern of early static prices, or even a drop but with a final run up to an increase towards the close. SOF seems hard to keep down at the moment and the after close trading today looks promising -

are we going to see 170+ again soon?

[hatman] 10/12/2004 11:17

Still in iv of 1 of 3 of 5. This sideways action should end on Monday/Tuesday. SOF should then enter v of 1 of 3 of 5 which should produce a price in the range 164/171 by December 23rd.

Then, SOF should enter an ABC wave 2 of 3 of 5 which should produce a retracement back to the 148p area over the course of one month.

[hatman] 08/12/2004 11:49

Still in iv of 1 of 3 of 5.

[303hound] 07/12/2004 18:36

hatman... very helpful post thanks

[kingdwg] 07/12/2004 14:39

Good reading hatman, pity I hadn't talked to you before I exited my short term holding at 143.75. Still long term holding thankfully still intact.

[hatman] 07/12/2004 13:48

faxxer

Not my place to suggest to anyone what they should do with their money - I merely post my view of price action.

Given that SOF appears to be in a major bull market, selling is a dangerous game, and going short even more dangerous. However, I shall probably take some profit in my trading accounts looking to buy back at lower levels (thus adding to the potential compound return) but leave my pension fund holdings intact for the longer run.

The expected decline after December 23rd should last only about a month and be limited to the 148/154p area, so if v of 1 of 3 of 5 peaks in the 164/171 area as I suspect, the potential pullback is relatively slight and temporary.