Somerfield Share Discussion Threads

[okuta] 17/2/2005 08:44

From the FAR4 thread this morning amongst all the news"Somerfield came under pressure from Analysts yesterday to rebuff a 1bln stg approach from Baugur as the grocery chain revealed the acqisition of 140 new petrol forecourt stores" - The Times - anyone clocked this ? regards

[hatman] 16/2/2005 20:59

Next chart target is 214.5p being 1.618 times wave 1.

Order imbalance at the close today reminded me of the day before the Baugur news. Probably just coincidence.......

[kingdwg] 16/2/2005 15:20

Well done faxxer,we had discussed this matter before if you recall but I have never been able to find as much detail as you just posted. Thanks to your persistance and the willingness of Richard Harding to spend the time.

[faxxer] 16/2/2005 14:51

Spoke to M&G contact who explained the position of their holdings and notification rules. As a result I have reinstated Amvescap with 8-plus percent of Somerfield.

It appears correct that under Section 198 an investment institution such as Prudential who are holding non-beneficial interests in companies below 10% of the issued share capital have no notification requirement. Above 10% holding would require an RNS and for every change thereafter where the holding goes to 11% or greater, or 9.99% or less.

In the case of a beneficial holding of 3% or greater the rules apply as to other investors, however this notification can be made within a notification of non-beneficial interests when the company is obliged to do so.

Since the latest RNS re M&G is for M&G Investment Management Ltd only it may be assumed that there are slightly more shares held in total under the Prudential umbrella than those notified today.

With Amvescap's holding it may be that the conversion of funds to ICVCs (Investment Companies with Variable Capital) the beneficial interests of Amvescap and the non-beneficial interests have been split and by splitting it has reduced both to a non-notifiable level. (Edit: found Amvescap's RNS and they sold 7 mill and are down to a round number).

M&G's equivalent to ICVCs is OICs (Open-ended Investment Companies).

I am deeply indebted to Richard Harding of M&G who patiently cleared up this matter.

[kingdwg] 16/2/2005 13:58

Hope this news of a missile in Iran isn't going to upset the applecart.

[kingdwg] 16/2/2005 13:55

Hi faxxer

I'm content to sit back and watch the proceedings at the moment, I see 190 as a sighting shot with more to come but I'd be happy with anything over £2. It would certainly suit me to see the bid negotiations continue into the next tax year.

[faxxer] 16/2/2005 12:26

Kingy, as you indicate I am casting nasturtiums at Barclays without foundation. They may not hold any shares beneficially. I think that what the shareholding may show is that holdings are very fragmented. It is a matter of some curiosity to me that Baugur hold only 5.56%. I can't imagine that after all this time they don't have (how can I put this delicately) some support within institutional holdings. What do you think and what is your exit strategy/price?

[kingdwg] 16/2/2005 11:24

faxxer
Barclays obviously have had a change of heart here as their last rns in January was a reduction. Their current one of course also includes my nominee holding which has more than doubled in the last few weeks.

[faxxer] 15/2/2005 18:48

I have just updated the total holdings list which shows the actual and guessed locations of 83.78% of Somerfield stock against the previous update on 3rd Feb 2005 when only 74.68% could be identified.

Recent RNSs have shown three new entrants to the list, namely GAM (London) Ltd, JP Fleming, and Cantor Fitzgerald.

The largest recent increases in holdings were Cantor's and Barclays', while GAM and JP Fleming, appearing at the same time as Cantor, both significantly reduced their holdings.
Barclays is now the largest single holder of the stock and it seems probable that they are an ally of Baugur. I haven't analysed their CFD position versus their actual holding yet. But I think it unlikely that all of their 67 (edit16thFeb05: 72.081847) million shares are held against CFD positions.

State Street have appeared out of the blue, and although they sold 15,053 shares as they appeared, I have them down as an increase since I have seen no RNS notification of their holding since 17th April 2003.

[okuta] 15/2/2005 06:32

Mr Hatman,and what of our SOF,another bid coming in ? what do the tealeaves say? Have you the time to do your own BB on a part time basis,I'm sure there are others like me who enjoy all your posts/many thanks,regards

[hatman] 15/2/2005 06:07

SBRY target 303p this week.

Then a correction back to 290p with triangular sideways price action lasting ten trading days.

Then a wave v of 3 move upwards to 320p.

Then a wave 4 triangle.

Then a final push to 338p.

[dougmarks2001] 14/2/2005 01:53

Somerfield problems lie with their pricing concepts. In order for them to realise greater market share and profitability, there is a need for greater investment in price reduction and more efficiency in operation. On a long term perspective only a change of management,like a take over can turn around the balance sheet for somefields.

[kingdwg] 13/2/2005 15:18

I guess that means you didn't get back in Bigface. Shame, you were talking about it I remember.

[bigface] 13/2/2005 12:54

Hold on for a proper price near real NAV - well done Kingy and faxxer

[kingdwg] 13/2/2005 12:45

The market must be considering a counterbid by the looks of Friday's trade up to 189.

[maxharry] 13/2/2005 10:41

strong at current price any views on next week??????????

[chester] 12/2/2005 06:35

Sold half my holding today at £1.88p

[maxharry] 11/2/2005 21:14

hatman
What is your view on where this is going over the next few weeks.

Like you i have locked in some profit but i still think that £1.90 is cheap and believe that sof will be looking at more like £2.20 .

The other option is that other interested parties will be forced to show their hand which would be interesting.

[kingdwg] 11/2/2005 10:50

Thank you hatman, I am fairly well into sbry.

[hatman] 11/2/2005 09:51

SBRY target 338p in approximately 58 days time.

I am long and will add more on any dip towards 290/291p.

[hatman] 11/2/2005 09:49

My timing work on VOD suggests it will be a buy at 137.25/137.75 at approximately 2.00pm this afternoon.

[faxxer] 11/2/2005 07:55

You don't know disgusted of Tunbridge Wells do you.
I am known by Denise Barnes, your local estate agent (black cat logo)
Re VOD - when is the best buying opp going to be??

p.s. what about the charts?

[hatman] 11/2/2005 07:30

I'm in Tunbridge Wells, so I think that's firmly in GMT!

I always get up at 5.00am and spend the first hour of the day analysing, watching the overseas markets and putting in place some ideas for the day.

Oh, and drinking several cups of coffee.

This morning I have discovered some fascinating price and time ratios on VOD, which I now believe will achieve 178/180p on May 30th 2005. I am long and will increase my holding.

[faxxer] 11/2/2005 06:46

Hatman - I'd go along with that and maybe another bidder will appear eh?
Do you have access to ancient charts for other Baugur targets such as Hamleys, Arcadia, House of Fraser (I think), etc.
p.s. you're up early - do you reside within the GMT timezone?

[hatman] 11/2/2005 05:29

Price edging upwards and big volume suggests the market thinks a higher bid will be necessary.