Solgold Share Discussion Threads

[lefrene] 09/10/2019 12:31

Well put Lowtrawler, Solg has indeed become a gamble on the political situation coming good or returning to the typical South American banana republic.

[lefrene] 09/10/2019 12:28

In reality the rise in diesel from approx $1 to $2 a gallon will add very little to the cost of moving goods, it's only 1/100th of a US cent per 1 kilo per mile, based on a 10 ton load at 10mpg, even at 5mpg, it would only be 1/50th US cent per kilo mile. Although I doubt the government if it is like ours, has had the wit to get that message across to the population. But of course it's more than that Moreno has chosen to throw in a whole raft of changes all at once, so one hopes he has a plan to deal with the obvious fall out that was going to happen.

[lowtrawler] 09/10/2019 12:22

I hope I have made clear my reasons for capitulating. I also hope I have made clear that I respect the rights of other to disagree or take a contrary approach.

I have to say that I am disappointed at the level of intellectual argument from those continuing to support investment. It essentially amounts to:

1.We have the largest copper mine in the world and so it must be a success.
2.The current political issues in Ecuador are nothing to worry about.
3.BHP and Newcrest are eager to continue investing and so funding is not a problem.

We have known about 1 for a while. In Australia, Canada or any other recognised mining country, this would be enough. The doubts have always been around 2 and 3.

Ecuador has not been a developed mining country because the political situation has been too unstable. This started to change and has allowed SOLG, BHP, Newcrest to tentatively explore resulting in what we know to be a major find. The question now is whether the current political turmoil will set the country back to an uninvestable status or whether it is less serious. I do not have this answer and so am no longer willing to invest. There are 3 possible outcomes:

1.BHP, Newcrest and other potential investors see Ecuador as no longer investable and so SOLG do not get funding and closedown.
2.The current political situation is seen as temporary and so interim funding is provided that allows SOLG to tick over.
3.The political turmoil is over quickly and SOLG can get on with the task at hand, receiving licenses and funding in the next few weeks.

Any amount of chart gazing will not inform which of these outcomes will happen. It needs extensive, reliable information on Ecuador politics and also a great deal of information on how BHP and Newcrest are viewing events. In my opinion, until we actually achieve outcome 3, the SOLG shareprice will fall, being dragged down by the risks of 1 and 2.

[cielos] 09/10/2019 12:01

Company email said >>>> Cascabel not affected

[kaos3] 09/10/2019 11:49

I do use them - charts are just a tool. It depends how one uses the tool imho

[boris cobaka] 09/10/2019 11:48

Sounds grim.

[shabadi] 09/10/2019 11:02

Cielos is Master rsi. 100%. He has embarrassed himself with stupid chart bases predictions. Lesson = you can't use charts on a news driven equity.

[lefrene] 09/10/2019 10:57

It's about more than just cutting fuel subsidies, looks like Moreno is going for a fiscal re-set. One hopes he made careful plans and will come through it stronger.




Local groups aware that political trouble makers are trying to infiltrate their tribal groups.

Radio silence as per usual from Solg HQ.

[greenelf] 09/10/2019 10:46

Fabulous opportunity. Hope the canny are taking full advantage!

[kaos3] 09/10/2019 10:43

master RSI?

[cielos] 09/10/2019 10:41

What Is Capitulation?

Capitulation is when investors give up any previous gains in any security or market by selling their positions during periods of declines.
Capitulation can happen at any time, but typically happens during high volume trading and extended declines for securities.
A market correction or bear market often leads investors to capitulate or panic sell. The term is a derived from a military term which refers to surrender.

After capitulation selling, many traders think there are bargain buying opportunities. The belief is that everyone who wants to sell a stock for any reason, including forced selling due to margin calls, has already sold.
The price should then, theoretically, reverse or bounce off the lows. In other words, some investors believe that capitulation is the sign of a bottom.

[cielos] 09/10/2019 10:26

>>>>>> low trawler....do you actually believe the rubbish you write...

Any none holder at the moment want the price lower to buy back cheap, so they will write any rubbish to get they objective.

Lowtrawler - 09 Oct 2019 - 08:21:08 - 18124
Disappointingly, I have sold all my SOLG in light of the Ecuador situation

[1garythomas] 09/10/2019 10:22

I am a trader out of ujo when the EWT was suspended at about .28, made alot of money, looking to get back in again, nice bounce this morning, buy back st the moment.22, but will watch before buying back in again, with solgold, could now see 15p, massive gamble even at that price.

[cielos] 09/10/2019 10:20

CAPITULATION!

[dmitribollokov] 09/10/2019 10:11

Agreed Lowtrawler, it's ridiculously unfair given the amazing job that SOLG have done, but political risks outweigh all other considerations at times. It's the same with BMN, although the situation here at present is probably more accute

[rougepierre] 09/10/2019 10:10

low trawler....do you actually believe the rubbish you write...

SOLG could go the way of Thomas Cook and Carillion...?

While BHP and Newcrest are major holders...and with the second biggest copper deposit in the world, let a lone the gold...

At least its not polyhalite...

[shabadi] 09/10/2019 09:52

Suspect solg will need to suspend operations until political uncertainties are resolved. That means laying off 100's of locals. Rock and a hard place. Btw. Well done to 1Gary for predicting this price, shame about UJO though Gary.

[lowtrawler] 09/10/2019 09:44

As I said before, good luck to anyone who continues to invest or hold. It is entirely possible that the Ecuador political situation is temporary and will return to normal shortly. My problem is that I am not close enough to know one way or another.

At face value, there could be a coup leading to state ownership for mining and a likely closure to inward investment. While this hangs over the country, BHP and Newcrest are unlikely to invest further. When you combine this with indefinitely delayed licenses and cash running out imminently, this is a perfect storm.

Realistically, the political situation needs to be satisfactorily resolved in the next 3 months or SOLG will go the way of Thomas Cook and Carillion. It could be worth a punt for anyone who understands Ecuador politics better than I do but there is no question that risk has increased. I am sure that mcknight and greenelf have a much better understanding of the political situation than I do but, for me, it is no longer worth the risk.

Purely on a technical perspective, if SOLG was trading at 24p prior to the political uncertainty, a fall to 19p does not feel as if the increased level of risk has been fully priced in yet. Personally, if the political situation does not improve over the next week, I can see the price dropping to around 12p over the next few days. This is all from my perspective and my view of the changed risk. Many of you will have a better understanding than me but I neither have the time nor interest in trying to improve my understanding. As I say, I am out but will hope to buyback when things settle down.

[francoismyname] 09/10/2019 09:26

�350m for the company.

Peanuts

[dmitribollokov] 09/10/2019 09:18

Thing is - if it brings back the subsidies, they will lose their $4.2bn IMF line...

[mikalan] 09/10/2019 09:08

Not sure they can drop the oil price can they? Isn't the removal of subsidies one of the conditions of being given a $4.1 billion loan from IMF?

[mknight] 09/10/2019 08:57

Hello its a national strike ...

They could funish it tomorrow if they drop the oil prices ...

[greenelf] 09/10/2019 08:56

Err, cough, all investors are gamblers. Fact.Seriously, yes this is high risk, but three things that make it worth the risk for me.1. The proven reserves that increasing still. 2. The presence of Newcrest and BHP who paid a lot more to buy into this. 3. The price of gold above $1500Good luck! :)

[lowtrawler] 09/10/2019 08:52

As you say, it is all a question of risk versus reward. The risks have dramatically increased while the rewards remain unchanged. I would previously have considered there to be around a 10% risk of failure. My view is this has risen to around 50%. I'm an investor, not a gambler.

[mknight] 09/10/2019 08:47

Its a national strike not good but thats all it is .