Solid State Share Discussion Threads

[redartbmud] 02/11/2015 17:54

Pug

Soli issued a statement about the Renishaw contract, but Renishaw did not. It is not big enough for them to comment.

red

[pugugly] 02/11/2015 15:05

Hummmmmmmmmmmmmmmm.

17 Jul 2015 Tony Frere Sell 47,996 @ 775.00p £371,969.00
28 Nov 2014 Tony Frere Sell 50,000 @ 650.00p £325,000.00

Interesting in view of profit warning -

Results for the six months to 30 September 2015 are expected to show turnover and profits before tax of approximately GBP21 million (2014: GBP17.13m) and approximately GBP1.50 million (2014: GBP1.55m) respectively.

Certainly appears to be ex significant growth and if significant contract problems annual could (imo) be below 2014.

What would be an appropriate forward p/e ?

PS Everyone seems to assume that it is the MOJ contract but so far as I can see no confirmation from the company - The Renishaw contract while high profile would not (I have thought) been large enough - some 2.25% of WHI new estimated revenue figure to be the problem BUT it is very high profile but would have expected a rns from RSW on 2nd thoughts probably not as minimal so far as RSW are concerned UNLESS it has a major knock-on impact on their production.

New target price - Thoughts -

[dasv] 30/10/2015 12:23

mrf - hard to value at the moment. I can't put a price the market cap right now.

[my retirement fund] 30/10/2015 10:08

They have made some progress over the last several years with some wise additions but also overpaid for some, the Stevenage distributor looked like a right clanger but seemed to have done a good job of burying it all up till now.

I reckon its worth no more than £2. Directors were always going to pump it up and dump but I had no idea they would have managed to achieve the valuations they did.

[stegrego] 30/10/2015 09:12

'Solid State is confident that it is fulfilling its obligations to the customer'

Sounds a bit like MOJ might be moving the goalposts which caused Buddi to quit.

I like this company but I've no idea what it's currently worth.

[cockerhoop] 30/10/2015 08:37

Article from Telegraph regarding Buddi pulling out in 2014

[cockerhoop] 30/10/2015 08:28

Redartbmud,

At least they said they were! :-) There are numerous examples of directors being economical with the truth (or worse).

[redartbmud] 30/10/2015 08:28

Astur

Brave. If the MOJ contract aborts it will be a major blow for the company. Even at current levels it is overpriced.

red

[asturius101] 30/10/2015 08:18

Have added a few k worth - def oversold at these lvls

[cockerhoop] 30/10/2015 08:02

Dasv,

It's surely inconceivable that that the Chairman wasn't of aware issues with the contract when in July it was widely reported on Radio 4 news, the Guardian and the Mail.

I also asked questions regarding why the original awardee of the contract pulled out - citing impossible to work with MoJ as reason. Looking smart move by them now.

[redartbmud] 30/10/2015 07:52

dasv

Wise decision to sell. Most of the eggs were in one basket, with a very fragile bottom that has now broken.
The signs were there, we should have read them.

red

[dasv] 30/10/2015 07:26

I posted back in July - the chairman sold down to 0.1% of the co. I thought that looked suspicious and tied in with the negative media coverage on the key contract I bailed. Did the chairman act on inside knowledge?

[glasshalfull] 29/10/2015 18:13

Disappointing update today. Also this occurred against a backdrop of ex-Directors & founders selling stock not so long ago. Personally I'll stick with my holding but fully understand others frustrations & they'll certainly have their work cut out to reassure the market.

WH Ireland have reduced 56p EPS forecast to 36p for the current year & withdrawn 2017 figures until they've better visibility.

They indicate,

"For the current year to March 2016, we have reduced our forecasts as follows: revenue £44.0m (from £57.0m), WHI PBT £3.2m (from £5.3m) and WHI EPS 36.0p (from 56.0p).

We have also assumed a same again dividend of 12.0p (was 20.0p). Given a material uncertainty of when deliveries to the major customer will resume, we have withdrawn our FY17 numbers with immediate effect. We have put our recommendation and target price Under Review with immediate effect (was Market Perform, 910p price target) and will seek to reintroduce when greater clarity emerges."

Kind regards,
GHF

[hydrus] 29/10/2015 14:42

Red makes a good point that actually trajectory is hard to assess until results come out. However it is clear this not just due to the large contract. It's also due to due to 'general market softening'Personally, I don't understand why this statement was released mid afternoon. It's all a bit odd, what with the Chairman sales and fact that first half of year is behind last year - that isn't to do with the variation in contract as that was only informed to the company this week.

[davidbirkett] 29/10/2015 14:32

Massive overeaction . The markets are so vulnerable to short term panic at the moment we saw this with Alumasc last week. Great time to buy ir you have the Kohonas

[theprovosts] 29/10/2015 14:28

Not letting anyone buy for the last 30mins... MM's are nubs

[redartbmud] 29/10/2015 14:21

Solid are making some changes to management. The current FD is standing down to become a NED and they are employing from outside. Sombody far more appropriate for the needs of the business. It is a well overdue move.
MOJ contract is very complex, there are three other partners, on which the success of the contract depends. Still very much wip, but if successful could be rolled out into other countries.
The link with Rsw is excellent. Rsw is very high tech and quality orientated. They would not employ a second rate supplier.

The next set of results should set the tone for growth.
I have a small position, but bought at the wrong price, when the Sp had run ahead of events. I am not selling, or adding for now.

red

[hydrus] 29/10/2015 13:59

Broker estimates were for 56p this year, way ahead of last years 35p. As currently profits are behind same period last year perhaps there is a need to assume overall similar or possibly lower results than last year? If so this is on a PE ratio of 17 or so. That still feels quite high to me.

[cockerhoop] 29/10/2015 13:48

I don't think there was ever any doubt that the project was delayed - a prison minister wouldn't admit it unless true. What was unclear was the effect on SOLI.

[hydrus] 29/10/2015 13:24

I guess the Director sales and publicity about the contract were valid warnings here after all

[cockerhoop] 21/7/2015 11:59

Glaws, To be accurate it was the Guardian along with the BBC and the Mailonline reporting on a parliamentary answer from the Prisons minister Peter Selous.As I said earlier I'm new to SOLI and only stumbled across the articles when initially researching the company so I'm probably still behind the curve here but does anyone know the circumstances behind the company Buddi turning down the original MoJ Gps tagging contract? MoJ do not appear easy to work with.