Solid State Share Discussion Threads

[spectoacc] 24/10/2017 05:56

ST will talk it up is my guess - not a man to easily admit to being wrong.

[pugugly] 23/10/2017 19:44

GHF - Thanks - In particular for the WHI forecasts - Will be very interesting to see ST's comments - None as yet as at time of posting. If he turns negative then your target could well be reached or exceeded. (imo)

[albanyvillas] 23/10/2017 19:41

Looking forward, the Board remains confident ..The Group has delivered significant organic growth in the first half, maintained product line margins, and can report an open order book at 30 September 2017 of GBP18.0m (2016: GBP14.8m).

[glasshalfull] 23/10/2017 19:03

I revisited my post from 7 months ago when I sold out @ c.460p

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23 Mar '17 - 21:58 - 218 of 259

SOLI

Disappointing statement today.

Sold some recently when it popped up to 525p but still retain a slug (thanks Richard B for the Moneyweek tip).

Worth noting that WH Ireland previously had £3.3m PBT pencilled in and today's statement indicated that PBT would be broadly in line and, "in excess of £3.1m". So somewhere in the region of 3-7% shortfall I'd envisage.

In summary, closure of the SEMS business (electronic tagging) reduces SOLI's ability to claim R&D tax credits moving forward which consequently raises their tax rate expectations from 10% to 15% for the current year as they can no longer offset. This has the effect of reducing EPS more markedly than the smaller PBT reduction of between £100-£200k as today's statement implies.

WH Ireland have reduced EPS by (-13%) in the current year from 35.6p to 31.1p EPS ... or prospective PER of 14.8 (@460p).

2018 finds them reducing by (-14%) from 37.7p to 32.3p EPS ... or prospective 2018 PER of 14.2 (@460p).

However, in a positive note, WH Ireland indicate that gross margins will rise to 32% from expectations of 29.5%. They've also retained a 12p dividend forecast for the next couple of years.

Overall I think SOLI a decent company. It's been an interesting ride during the last 3 to 4 years. We've had the euphoria that surrounded the MoJ contract win announcement and tripling of the shareprice, to the cancellation & uncertainty that followed (through no fault of SOLI's). Then came the MoJ settlement & acquisition of Creasefield which saw the shares appreciate from lows, and today's statement looks like providing yet another speed-bump on the road.

Notwithstanding a bid materialising for the company, I think the share price will at best stagnate for the next 6 months or so. It's certainly not rated like some on the market, but if WH Irelands forecasts are on the money, then I think it more deserving of a prospective PER 10-12 on negligible growth in the short term. Others may disagree.

My initial thoughts FWIW. Please DYOR.

Kind regards,
GHF

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Well, they rose to 520p following a Simon Thompson tip with the market clearly ignoring short-term negligible growth & awarding them a PER 17 when I thought a PER 10-12 more in-line with performance at that stage.

Following today's update WH Ireland have downgraded EPS by 7% & PBT by a further 8% in 2018...that's a downgrade from an original 37.7p in March 2017 to 30.8p now for an overall earnings downgrade of 18% since March.. PBT now forecast at £3.0m & forecast dividend retained at 12p (est. 12.5p)

There are also some small downgrades to 2019 estimates with PBT reduced from £3.6m to £3.3m & forecast EPS reduced from 35.8p to 33.9p.

So, on these reduced forecasts, SOLI's earnings will fall 4% in the current year before growing at 10% next.

As I mentioned in my March 2017 write-up, I believe SOLI a decent company but IMHO believe it should only be valued on a PER 10-12 until the anticipated growth emerged. I thought fair valuation c.380p back in March & the market carried them up to 520p...so take my comments with a pinch of salt!

Shares are now back to 425p, so on a prospective PER of 13.8 for 2018.
I'll either await a further pullback before jumping on board or alternatively willing to pay up when they start delivering decent earnings growth.

Kind regards,
GHF

[nw99] 23/10/2017 07:22

Support at 400 Buy there ?

[nw99] 23/10/2017 06:57

A case of buy and hold I think now

[nw99] 23/10/2017 06:39

Looking forward, the Board remains confident that the prospects for the Group remain strong. The Group has delivered significant organic growth in the first half, maintained product line margins, and can report an open order book at 30 September 2017 of GBP18.0m (2016: GBP14.8m).

[pugugly] 23/10/2017 06:30

Poor news
"As a result of the product mix in the period and increases to overheads through the investment in growth and margin initiatives, the Board expects profit before tax to be slightly lower than current market expectations for the full year."

Could get clobbered this morning - Mr Market dows not usually respond well to missed expectations.

[nw99] 16/10/2017 21:50

Upside to £8

[nw99] 16/10/2017 14:21

Results will be good

[pugugly] 16/10/2017 13:18

Looks like tipped over the weekend - Lots more buying activity than usual Not ST of IC so far as I can see - Anyone seen anything ?

[malcolmmm] 21/8/2017 15:22

dropping today but looking at the chart will wait awhile before buying

[spectoacc] 07/8/2017 13:30

Can't go bust taking a profit. Hard to say how much the insider-sounding ST write-up has taken it on to a new trading level, but clearly this latest tip has taken it well over his target price. I'd intended SOLI to be a genuine LTBH but already halved it twice.

[nw99] 07/8/2017 09:10

Sold at 552

[spectoacc] 07/8/2017 07:17

Can't get a quote higher than 520 for 3k here, which I'm not taking when people are paying 564.

[nw99] 07/8/2017 07:17

Just sold mine will revisit on any pullback

[pugugly] 07/8/2017 07:15

nw99 - Thanks -

[nw99] 07/8/2017 07:12

SCSW tipped

[pugugly] 07/8/2017 07:05

Anyone know if tipped over the weekend :? Unusual jump at market open ?

[spectoacc] 24/7/2017 15:53

Still going well.

[spectoacc] 14/7/2017 12:06

Certainly a glowing write-up, albeit very insider-sounding.

[spectoacc] 10/7/2017 11:45

Ah, many thanks - wondered what had caused the spike. Usually a sell signal for me when Tommo gets involved! Will wait to see where it is after the print edition, though unlikely to sell in truth - there's a constant undertow of demand from IHT purchases I reckon.

[x54v] 10/7/2017 11:05

Just been tipped by Simon Thompson in the IC.

[skyracer] 04/7/2017 09:25

Cashflow was strong due to the discontinuing of the SEMS business.

[spectoacc] 04/7/2017 06:15

By no means knock-out but quite liked the first para of this:

"Commenting on the results and prospects, Tony Frere, Chairman of Solid State said:
"The year has been very productive in laying the foundations for the future growth of the Group. Our ambition is to double the size of the business over the next 5 years through a combination of organic and acquisitive growth.
"Activity levels are encouraging across both divisions. Leading edge indicators which include our open order book, which is at a record GBP20.67m and up 16% on the comparable period last year, our book to bill ratio, and our 1(st) quarter order intake, give the Board confidence in the prospects for Solid State." "