Solgold Share Discussion Threads

[dozyduck] 02/5/2020 16:27

mcKn I don't think the PEA considered funding at all (they never do) So I don't know what NM might have thought at the time he could expect as a take-off deal. Maybe he means that the economics now are looking better than at the PEA. Or maybe he means that metals prices are better and so his sales expectations are better. You could ask him ? (But I haven't flogged through the PEa to check) There will be an assumed gold and copper revenue and might be some detail about the smelter terms assumed (ie % discount or fee or something.

[yufff] 02/5/2020 15:56

DD

Don’t compare SXX and Shore

Totally different animals s as nd more like cheese and chalk or apples and pears.

Your arguments are baseless and have no comparison to the greatest Tier 1 discovery in the last 30 years

[mknight] 02/5/2020 14:16

They are suggesting that the offers coming in are 10% below what was indicated in the PEA .

DD do you know what that figure was ? would take awy most of the guess work .

Its only 438 pages and to be honest i dont know where to start .

[greenelf] 02/5/2020 14:11

Is no "rational", there is no "true value". Everything is a value judgement based on a web of circumstances, competition, risk tolerance and opportunity cost. There is potential range of probability outcome, that is it. Some will be more negative in giving a figure, others more positive.Look at all the past seemingly crazy mining deals done at market peaks. Gold/copper is very in vogue, we could well get an irrational/exhuberant deal here, especially in a cross way bidding war.So I am positive overall, currently. Wait and see.

[dozyduck] 02/5/2020 13:57

Phat The $150m won't be raised at any share price, It is a deal independent of the shares. And its only for 'preliminary' work. Not for the main project where if Solg wants to keep a full share (forget Cornerstone)and if debt is for 60%, it will have to raise another $1.08bn. While the NPV (at realistic metals prices and a realistic (a lot higher than NM's 5%) discount rate might reassure fund providers, they'll not base their funding terms on it.

Don't anyone on here take my thoughts as gospel. I've no idea how irrational some investors will be. Most private investors act like lemmings (they'll be offered shares they've never heard of before by brokers desperate to drum up business) and chase after what they see as news - and never stop to work out what it really means in value per share terms

All I do is ty to work out how the institutions will look at it. They certainly won't pay anything near an NPV.(Because to pay the NPV for an investment is absurd. Its just the same as buying an annuity (but fsr riskier) that will merely return your investment over xx years with the discount rage interest on top. What sane investor would buy an NPV derived from mining and accept 5% interest for the trouble and risk ? That's why to use NPVs to value mining shares is completely bonkers. That NM is relying on it tells me he hasn't a clue about how the markets work. It was the same with SXX's CEO. He was always trumpeting his NPV. And he fell flat on his bum.

I can't tell whether NM's funding news will be thought good or bad by serious investors. But I can't see how, in current markets, it can be particularly good.

And as for 'predicting' that shares will reach a certain % of NPV at whatever stage is also completely bonkersly wrong. It has varied historically enormously between particular miners, depending on their circumstances and on markets at the time. Look some up - eg Oyu Tolgi or AAZ - about 70 I've followed since 2008.

And lastly why should anyone take the 2019 NPV calculated on a high copper price - and on an arbitrary discount rate - as the 'right' NPV ? (Note that a 5% discount rate will produce double the NPV at 8%) But the cash flows and costs which funders will rely on will be exactly the same. In my experience mining shares have never achieved better than 1/3rd - 1/2 their 8% NPV even in the 2011 mining boom.

But you can never tell by how much 'a story' will distort a share's true value.

[phattrader1] 02/5/2020 13:15

DD - If BHP paid 45p a share in 2018 when Alpala was nowhere near it is now along with the other prospects, I expect the $150m to be raised at 60-70p this time round, and if it’s part of the offtake agreement (which has been hinted), then I don’t even want to guess.

All I know is that it will be a >100% premium to Friday’s 25p price and the share price will rocket up towards that price (even if just for intraday).

If Finance is being raised based on NPV of project and not our current market cap, any news will be good news. NM and Citi just need to deliver and we need to keep control of our resources as much as we can. Obviously there will be some compromise, but a deal is due next week.

Ecuador is back up and mining.

[mknight] 02/5/2020 12:39

So in the worst case we have an increase of 60% in a very few weeks of the share price

So 100K becomes 160K

Or

70 yrs of having your money tied up in a
High interest account .

[mknight] 02/5/2020 12:18

DD

Ok thanks so you are jumping at 40p along with rougepierre .

I will probably hold longer as we will no doubt have some drilling results from two other sights by Christmas .

[dozyduck] 02/5/2020 12:13

phat ! I've no idea, but it seems you think the market won't anticipate the need for share dilution to raise Solg's project equity share ? NM has already said an equity raise will be needed before construction but after a funding deal So professional investors will be working it out - once we know what any preliminary funding turns out to be.

He'll probably say he's lined up a consortium to fund the likely debt part (maybe 70% - maybe 60% ?)and also some other investors might come in at project level. That might spur some investors (and brokers) to spike the shares 'because the NPV is over £2 per share' ! But I personally will be ready to jump ship at anything above 40p. Let's see.

Depends also how honest brokers might be in applying a 'risk factor' They have an incentive to pump up their 'target' price to tempt in mug punters ! ( I keep saying remember SXX and Shore Capital in 2016) PI's chased after their 50p - 60p 'target'. But the institutions wouldn't pay more than 22p (approx. I seem to remember)

[mknight] 02/5/2020 11:47

FSA.

Yes Nm said the PEA mid value 4.5 billion going up as price for copper rises so maybe 7 billion .

He also said after PFS company valued at
30 to 40% lets take the mid ..

7 billion x 35 % = 2.45 billion or 1.20 a share . Lets throw in another 1 billion shares used in the finance .80p a share mor or less by Christmas .

25p today ... i can handle 3 x times todays price by Christmas this does not include any further finds as drilling in
Rio Amarillo which is close to Apala will be off and running in a few weeks news should be with us before August . No doubt the rigs are ready to go as we speak . A deal can be arranged with the rig company to give us an extended payment time if necessary.

All imho WIll be adding Monday if no news out .

[mknight] 02/5/2020 11:35

Radium and moli were mentioned by NM in the webinar .. i am sure there is not much but he wouldnt have mentioned them if it was not important .

Current prices ...

Radium 100 to 120 thousand dollars per gram ...

Moli ... 26000 dollars per ton .

Not alot of people know that ..

Another add on

[fsawatcher] 02/5/2020 09:56

the ways I see it is simples no need to complicate stuff with whos seein who or whos avin a poo.

this the way i see it

BHP slipped us £45m cash for 100m shares at 45p.

that woz before mre3 and everyfink else

so we gotta go past 45p after this 150m deal announced

but this aint end game

that come in Sept and oct and nov

i fink we be at 60p in aug, 70p in sept and 85p in nov and 110p in 2021 when we be sold to rio or Barrick or BHP

veryfink in between is just top up time innit

we jus got May, June and July to play around with and that be 30p to 50p ranges I fink

[phattrader1] 02/5/2020 08:29

Last webinar NM said “we wouldn’t have told the market if we weren’t confident in securing a good financing deal / offtake agreement at a much faster rate than we expected”.

Hofmaier said “we expect this to be completed within 2 weeks”.

Next week is the week we get some materially sensitive news announced.

DD: if they pull it off like they say they will, what would you put the share price at? Assume equity dilution only at development stage in 3-4 years.

[dozyduck] 02/5/2020 07:07

Wouldn't get too excited about NM meeting Lundin if I were you. You should hope Orion Mine Finance isn't there either. It was the latter shafted Lundin via its streaming deal - just bought by Newcrest for $460m against the $300m Orion put up for Fruta del Norte only 2 1/2 years before. Shows just how profitable the deal was for Orion - ie how expensive for Lundin. If NM cuts a similar deal the market won't be impressed.

[mknight] 01/5/2020 21:12

Lowtrawler

Thanks very much i appreciate it .

I try and help when i can . I do watch the trades all day most would find it borring but i enjoy it . Also by placing as many trades as i do i can now see most times when the MM,s want stock or want to sell . You cannot believe how quickly or slowly the trades go online . If you put a buy on and they want to sell it goes on in a fraction of a second if they want stock the trade can take upto 5 mins .

[phattrader1] 01/5/2020 20:27

The Gold price has rocketed since our market closed.

I expect this to rise on Monday back to the 27-31p range barring any news on the $2.85bn.

I think with a potential release on Monday/Tuesday NM will have a publicity stunt on Wednesday along with Lundin Gold about becoming Ecuador’s newest “major”.

I tracked Hofmaier on LinkedIn all day - he wasn’t on it all day - a big difference from the last few days. Maybe he was finalising the deal.

[lowtrawler] 01/5/2020 20:19

Good luck mk. You have followed your instinct and are clearly heavily invested. You deserve the success. We may not always agree on prospects but you are always honest on your views. I wish you every success.

[mknight] 01/5/2020 19:39

Gold takes 1700 again .

Harmony gold ... up.... 1.50%

Barrick gold ......up .... 4.55%

Kinross gold ....up ..... 2.8%

Yamana gold ... up .....3.42%

[mknight] 01/5/2020 19:29

Interesting DOW down 577 as i type .

GOLD STOCKS UP

Same as before , Seems to be when the markets are down GOLD stocks perform better as many switch into Gold stocks .

It was the same in the middle of March to the end of March . .

[goodgrief] 01/5/2020 19:01

The man's a moronhttps://apple.news/AY11ScillT-ylvJGRPROwkw

[mknight] 01/5/2020 17:40

Nas daq

I do buy most days its not a lie ..

I have been buying since 16p all the way down and all the way up . I think it was important there was a sell off to calm things down a bit . I believe there will be news next week amazed if not but of course its possible . The longer it goes i would think they are going for the 2.5 billion but thats just my opinion .

As long as GOld stays strong i believe we will get new investors even if other stocks are falling it happened before .

We have NM talking again Wednesday and there is a question and answer period which is aleays good .

So i am positive for the share price as long as Gold is strong .

Foe a non holder you do seem to ask alot of questions .

[lefrene] 01/5/2020 17:17

Dow going down, gold going up, has the penny finally dropped?

[greenelf] 01/5/2020 17:12

Just looking because of your fictitious "friend". Smirk

[greenelf] 01/5/2020 17:10

I don't see you holding here. Nothing else to do? Lol