Solgold Share Discussion Threads

[ntbb] 30/4/2020 09:29

Just alpha alone will produce 58.4 billion dollars !! And we have 14 more site like alpha if not better

[ntbb] 30/4/2020 09:28

This valuation is better then the rubbish that comes out of dozy duck

"In the first 15 years of production, based on the 50Mtpa fast ramp up scenario, the mine is expected to produce an average of 810ktpa of concentrate with grades of 28.2% copper, 22.1g/t gold and 65.7g/t silver. These grades would result in production of contained metals of approximately 230kt of copper in concentrate, 580koz of gold and 1.7Moz of silver per annum on average. At spot metal prices, life-of-mine NSR sales proceeds are estimated to be USD58.4bn under PEA assumption.

[rougepierre] 30/4/2020 09:21

DD you're obviously a smart guy and unlike Nasdaq you don't seem to have an agenda. Your posts are reasoned...

But...

You may have noticed that even 40p is higher than 29p, so at the least a new investor would make almost 40%...

And as I respect you can I suggest that you never mention SXX again..AA may make something of it but, as someone who bought it at 2.5 and gladly sold at 12.5, all my research showed that it got ridiculously overvalued by near neighbours of mine who let their hearts rule their heads...always fatal...

My average here is 19p and, having done it once before I shall again sell half at 40p and hold the rest for a rich retirement...

AIMHO as usual and ATB...

[mknight] 30/4/2020 09:13

Are they real . Sooner or later we will find out .

[ntbb] 30/4/2020 08:59

Even better

[mknight] 30/4/2020 08:57

Was a billion

[ntbb] 30/4/2020 08:56

If.newcrest can rise 460 million or somthing like that then it's easy for solg

[mknight] 30/4/2020 08:55

Lets see what happens , we know news is close .

[ntbb] 30/4/2020 08:50

It's only 1.151,828 shares and once that's gone boom into thirties

[mknight] 30/4/2020 08:14

Ntbb i sid say they were blockers to stop the share price rising .

Blockers are back 2.6m at 29p

Now 1.3m

Now why would someone put 1.3 million on at 29p

To keep the price down probably .

[ntbb] 30/4/2020 07:59

Look what happened at 21p when those large sell order disappeared the next day, same is happening

[arcadian] 30/4/2020 07:56

Assumptions to the left of me , assumptions to the right, onward rode the 600...………….

added to which we have a new vague "suspicion"

[phattrader1] 30/4/2020 07:55

If they have let the breaks off we could be on for breaking 33.5p today.

Time will tell.

I’m hugely expecting news over the weekend of a takeover leak.

They don’t want offtake - they want takeover.

[ntbb] 30/4/2020 07:52

Expecting mid.30s at least today

[ntbb] 30/4/2020 07:51

Guys this great that large sell order has gone!!!

[mknight] 30/4/2020 07:46

Also opens the way for BHP to snap up
Newcrest shares when they come out of lockout . The race is on for Solg to secure finance before Bhp can buy us .

[shakester2] 30/4/2020 07:32

I am sure you opinion is truly held, but to constantly repeat it only devalues it unfortunately. Does Newcrests billion raise to buy Forte del Norte not cheer you up?

[nas_daq] 30/4/2020 07:29

Some bold statements in that post and from experience what ceos release in rns and what actually transpires vary hugely.I haven't seen any evidence refiners, smelters or funders desperate to fund solg to production. I've seen a ceo on a pr mission at 12p trying, successfully I might add, to put a floor on the price but without a funding announcement this will fall back in my opinion.Currently I see a company with a large asset and no viable plan to fund it. That may change or it may not, those buying now are taking a much higher risk than those who bought 4 weeks ago and I haven't seen anything that's changed except the markets pricing in not much damage from covid 19 which seems ludicrous to me. The ft100 is down 15percent and the Dow down just over 10 percent, seems mad to me.....

[lowtrawler] 29/4/2020 22:17

Mk, I have expressed my summarised valuations of SOLG in the past and so won't join in that side of the debate. Suffice to say that I am much more aligned to the views of DD than phat.I also agree with your perspective. Sentiment has a major part to play in the valuation of SOLG. It is entirely possible that SOLG will overshoot their fundamental valuation and deliver 40p or more without any takeover or new discovery. In my view anyone buying at less than 40p and holding long enough will make money.I suspect that at least 3 of the other Ecuador locations will be viable and deliver additional shareholder value. At the moment, this potential is almost thrown in for free and so if you share this view, you would be willing to pay more.I intend to hold as a passive investment unless it reaches 45p plus without additional discoveries. If that price point we're to be reached, I would need to reassess as I think I would see better value elsewhere.As I have mentioned before, I don't see us breaking 35p anytime soon and expect the price to stabilise in the low 30's. Would love to be proven wrong.

[mknight] 29/4/2020 21:51

DD

If shareholders believe the share price is worth a pound it will go to a pound even if in the end its only worth 40p .

I would imagine those that are good sell at 90p .

You have the advantage of knowing what a mining share may be worth . But it may stop you from making maximum gains

An example might be Sxx . No idea of what its top value was but i bet it was many times more than the
Price it was takenover at .

In Solgolds case no one can give a true value because no one can calculate the unknown . They have 74 of them dotted around Ecuador. It could 40p or maybe its 44 pounds .

[phattrader1] 29/4/2020 21:07

Hi DD,
Firstly you will know the principal difference between SXX and SOLG being that SXX failed to raise $500m in bond issues that would have unlocked their $2.5bn Credit facility with JPMorgan. This seriously put a doubt on SXX’s ability to go ahead with the project. They also needed $6-7bn of Capex UPFRONT and the majors saw this as an opportunity to buy them out cheaply which they did.

SOLG has miners, refiners, smelters, traders and investors fighting to win the off-take agreement and our shareholder base is 97% institutional.

SOLG has no problem in funding the development and will shortly issue confirmation of this. My interactions with Ingo Hofmaier (he is now a LinkedIn connection and email buddy) make me very optimistic. He hasn’t told me anything not already spoken, but he’s a switched on guy.

Do you really think we are worth 40p Max as it stands when the latest presentation by NM stated were only valued at 10% of NPV but projects at this stage should be 20-30%, then 30-40% post Feasibility? Currently we are at 15%, we have c.10-30p to go. But if funding confirmations come beforehand, we will rise fast because the world wants our world class concentrates. They will pay premiums to own it because Gold and Copper are only going up Long Run.

[dozyduck] 29/4/2020 20:54

RP et al
That's all very well, and encouraging. But I've already posted that my very rough calcs show Solg's value per share of Alpala's NPV (suitably adjusted as I'll explain) will be no more than around 40p today. The detailed calcs will take a lot of time but on the assumption of a 70% project loan (over 10 years at 10%) and a 10% streaming deal - leaving Solg to fund $540m of equity (at a 30p share price will double current shares in issue) the gross PV to come once funded will be $2.7bn + $4.2bn = $7bn. That's assuming the PEA copper and gold prices. Currently copper (80% of revenue) is 30% lower, and gold 30% higher, Will the loan funder believe copper will get back up to $3.3/lb ? Covid might drastically delay when it will.
But assuming the PEA figures, you have to deduct from the $7bn the NPV of the loan repayments - about $2bn, and also the revenue lost to streaming. In other cases I've looked at, its the equivalent of repaying a loan at 30% pa - over the whole life of the mine. That takes away at least double the streaming loan - ie $540m . Leaving a PV for Solg of around $4,5bn. On 4bn shares that's 110p. BUT its 6=7 years ahead. Its also for a 55 year life which no institution will invest for. Also An NPV based share price has NEVER been approached in practice. Its usually only 1/ to 1/3rd. (Because only a fool would pay up front for 55 years cash flow !) And Remember SXX. This is a very similar situation. Brokers tried to push a 55 year NPV as the value per share. The institutions only coughed up at 1/3rd of it. Its why its funding plan crashed to earth ! Very crude I know. But its the way the institutions who Solg will be flogging its shares to will look at it.
AND my calc assumes Solg shares issued to fund Alpala only. The shares it will have to issue to fund the rest of its exploration will add considerably and dilute that Alpala value. So 40p looks over-optimistic. Happy to be proved wrong by anyone posting DETAILED CALCS with valid assumptions and methods.

[rougepierre] 29/4/2020 17:40

Thanks DD...

Could all be irrelevant anyhow...from the Business Update 11 March 2020...

Only a week maximum to go...

"Financial Evaluation and Funding Discussions
SolGold is currently conducting discussions in respect of developing and securing a funding package (circa USD $2.85 billion) for the development of the Alpala Project. This involves up to USD $150 million in the shorter-term for two years funding for completion of the DFS at Alpala, and SolGold's 85% share of both pre-development costs and the longer-term development capital expenditure (circa $2.7 billion per the PEA estimate).

Funding discussions for finalising the DFS and SolGold's share of pre-development costs are progressing encouragingly. If an agreement is reached, finalisation and settlement could take up to eight weeks.

For guidance, the longer-term development funding package (circa $2.7 billion) is being negotiated and targeted to be agreed with a range of financiers and third-parties on a conditional basis subject to (i) finalisation of the DFS including adoption of prescribed hurdles on measured inputs and outcomes from the DFS, (ii) permitting, and (iii) fiscal agreements (Exploitation Agreement and Investment Agreement) with the Ecuadorean Government.

The funding is targeted to involve debt packages backed by Sovereign Export and Import Credit facilities (supported by conditional concentrate off take agreements) plus equity raised from a corporate capital issue at development and targeted to be priced with reference to the NPV of the Alpala Project at DFS stage, and project related interests tied to copper and gold metal production."

[mknight] 29/4/2020 17:38

Dozy Duck

Planned spending . I think the CV put a stop to alot of that .

Being a bit too negative imo

Copper futures for May up to 2.38 which is going in the right direction .