Soco Share Discussion Threads

[nigelpm] 13/12/2017 09:34

Surprise to me is anything other than business as usual.

[emptyend] 13/12/2017 07:51

......not sure what constitutes a "surprise" these days. But my money would be on next Monday for news re 2018 outlook and perhaps more.I'd observe that investor boredom and frustrations are often wholly uncorrelated with what is really going on. It may not look especially exciting from the outside here in the short term but, at the absolute minimum, we know the company is solid and cash-generative.

[nigelpm] 12/12/2017 19:56

Tick tock..... Will the board surprise us?

[stepone68] 11/12/2017 21:42

Yeah, the tobacco companies have really been suffering the last decade or two....!

[buywell3] 11/12/2017 17:06

It will be interesting to see how car and commercial vehicle manufacturers exit from diesel engine production

Likewise re health

Legal claims due to diesel particulate inhalation look like being an issue which might equal or even eclipse cancer/tobacco claims

Reversal out of OIL by big OIL producers and Funds looks set to gain momentum into 2018

PI's need to take heed

[ed 123] 11/12/2017 16:13

106p in the market. Broken up through the 9 day moving average, closing in on the 13 day.

IF there is some good news, it may push up through the 115-120p plateau?

Players still waiting for that update rns.

[lauders] 11/12/2017 00:37

Quite soon, I think....

Let's hope it is this week then EE ;-)

[emptyend] 10/12/2017 07:02

Fair point re shareholder value, Nigel, though I'd observe there are often considerable lags between board actions and the effects of those actions becoming observable in the market. In this case, IMO, the board/management and strategy changes this year are the result of high-level board decisions taken in 2016 - but they have yet to show a great deal by way of material visible results in value creation. But they will. Quite soon, I think....

[nigelpm] 09/12/2017 21:43

I think I sit somewhere in between ee and Lauders on this - I certainly don't blame the board for the share price performance but I don't think they've done enough (to date) to deal with the shareholder value part of the equation.

[emptyend] 09/12/2017 08:53

Hi Lauders,I wouldn't disagree that the board have been very well paid over recent years (IMO overpaid since 2014 - albeit much in shares, which have fallen). But you are setting too high a standard in expecting that "get it right" can apply over all timescales and in all circumstances - especially in relation to third-party decisions made by partners in long-term partnerships that were formed nearly 20 years ago (as the JOCs were). Those partnerships worked perfectly well until the end of 2014 (when, for example, PTTEP's capacity for capex had been impacted by over-extending themselves in spending $1bn+ on a position in Mozambique LNG....which was nothing to do with SOCO).Neither would I particularly fault the board for failing to foresee the Saudi-engineered oil price fall. Virtually no-one did. I did, in fact, raise the need to get on with selling out (before the oil price fell) with one of the NEDs at the 2014 AGM - and he fairly pointed out that launching a process to sell the company would be irreversible and have an unpredictable outcome! As it turned out, it would have already been too late by that point....

[lauders] 09/12/2017 01:51

EE

"they" haven't lost the shareholders money. The shareholders THEMSELVES have done that - thanks (in my case) primarily to a misread of oil price prospects...but also to underestimating the challenge of getting partners realigned in the changed price environment. But I haven't compounded that mark-to-market loss either by buying more on the way down or by crystallising it at current levels - though clearly I should have followed rhomboid in exiting at 150p+ several years ago when the difficulty of progress in the lower oil price environment became clearer.

While I agree in part with that I would say that if you invest in a company you are also investing in the BOD to make the correct decisions and look after the shareholders interests. They are the experts in the sector after all and are paid (usually very handsomely) to "get it right". The SIA BOD have failed on this count IMO. I am sure you will not agree. That is MY take on it.

The dividends are a minor help in the grand scheme of things
"minor"?????? Really? Name one other company that has distributed 80% of its current market cap over the last five years. That alone is a measure of the current undervaluation by the market (though of course I'm not suggesting that would be repeated, unless there is a bid for the whole company).

I can't, but it is still a minor comfort in relation to the capital I have lost while "having the faith" in the management I discuss above.

Anyway, perhaps we are at a turning point now and nice to see new investors appearing here. I think they may have timed it well, but WTFDIK! My track record with regards to SIA is not exactly teaching material!

[yasrub] 08/12/2017 08:56

I have added this morning, I told myself no more and the slide is a concern. I hope it is one of those times the market has been too severe in it's view and management REALLY are moving forward. It looks like we will find out shortly

[volsung] 08/12/2017 08:38

Once you threaten monkeys the die is cast!

[emptyend] 08/12/2017 08:26

Re my 20151, I suspect that the forthcoming update might include a material corporate step forward. I would otherwise have expected some market/PR intervention of some sort in recent days/weeks, given the price move,......so I view the lack of one as indicating that their hands are currently tied.

[invisage] 08/12/2017 08:15

I've bought in. I think decent upside from here.

[nigelpm] 08/12/2017 08:11

Probably - I'm a patient soul - clearly too much at times ;-)

[emptyend] 08/12/2017 08:10

....rather a shame that ADVFN translates the eye-roll emoticon as a query....

[emptyend] 08/12/2017 08:08

You should filter the timewasting personal cobblers as I do, Nigel. ?

[nigelpm] 08/12/2017 08:02

That's utterly pointless - I come on here to get ideas and discuss companies - not discuss other people's poor decisions.

[invisage] 08/12/2017 07:35

The purpose to look back is to be aware of people's track record vs what they say. They have been wrong before....the past is a good reflection of their future performance as far as their views are concerned...ee should shut his mouth. The man has no credibility.

[nigelpm] 08/12/2017 07:31

Personally I think all the looking back is pointless. It's pretty clear that anyone invested in soco and most other e&p has been wrong over the past decade if they didn't manage to get out when the oil price was high. However hindsight is a wonderful thing. The question to ask is always what is the value like currently.

[invisage] 08/12/2017 07:10

No point telling the world you are wrong Now, the losses have already occurred!Mr market kept telling you your wrong all the way down, you refused to listen, your view has always been MR Market is wrong.....but time has proven anything but!!!QUITE. As you say...

[emptyend] 08/12/2017 06:39

Lauders - more precision needed, I'm afraid.........they have been a MAJOR disappointment and just lost long term holders stacks of money. Nope. The company and board have disappointed in a) not managing to monetise the whole company in the years of $100 oil and b) not being able to develop and execute - so far - an alternative growth strategy. Both these points were largely (but not completely) beyond the control of management, as potential bid terms and growth prospects were partly dependent on third parties."they" haven't lost the shareholders money. The shareholders THEMSELVES have done that - thanks (in my case) primarily to a misread of oil price prospects...but also to underestimating the challenge of getting partners realigned in the changed price environment. But I haven't compounded that mark-to-market loss either by buying more on the way down or by crystallising it at current levels - though clearly I should have followed rhomboid in exiting at 150p+ several years ago when the difficulty of progress in the lower oil price environment became clearer.The dividends are a minor help in the grand scheme of things"minor"?????? Really? Name one other company that has distributed 80% of its current market cap over the last five years. That alone is a measure of the current undervaluation by the market (though of course I'm not suggesting that would be repeated, unless there is a bid for the whole company).

[lauders] 08/12/2017 01:30

nigelpm - Not very positive for the share price was it though! SIA are the pits at the moment and deep in them too! Probably a good time to buy, but they have been a MAJOR disappointment and just lost long term holders stacks of money. The dividends are a minor help in the grand scheme of things. I sincerely hope we have a turnaround here in 2018 and Rob's "new role" is the start. Certainly needs some upwards movement the share price chart is dire!

[brwo349] 07/12/2017 20:37

This is a very strange share price chart for on oil producer. The share price keeps going lower as the oil price goes higher. The other producers have totally different charts in that they have recovered dramatically from the low points that corresponded to a $35 oil price.