Soco Share Discussion Threads

[orinocor] 29/11/2017 14:21

If someone wanted to buy Soco's vietnam assets how much would they have to pay?

[nigelpm] 29/11/2017 11:15

Like I said - it's about the numbers - you don't need luck when the numbers are on your side.

[ed 123] 28/11/2017 23:47

Nigelpm.

Reference your post 20125, people on this board have been writing that the Soco price falls were market noise/inefficient market/forced sellers etc., and it would be a mistake to sell in the 300p area, in the 180p area, in the 160p area, in the 140p area, in the 120p area and now at 109p. Where does it end?

The really important distinction to make is between shares where there have been a series of lower lows, eg. Soco and shares where there haven't. If you adopt buy and hold for a share in a falling trend, you are likely to lose.

None of us can see the future with absolute certainty but we can see indicators as to the future. The indicators for Soco have been mostly negative for some time. Result? Share price 109p.

Those who read the negative news and acted on it by selling have avoided some of the fall. Those who clung on regardless are looking at 109p per share today. (Apologies for stating this so starkly. I know that cutting losing shares can be painful and can be mistimed. Notwithstanding that, cutting losers and running winners is usually the best approach.)

(No advice intended.)

Anyway, whatever, I wish you good luck. :-)

[buywell3] 28/11/2017 18:48

do u ride tandem with ee

who takes the front ?

[nigelpm] 28/11/2017 18:09

No, the evidence is in the company cash flows, P/L and balance sheet.

The market meanders around in the short term driven by the weight of buying and selling. Right now the sellers are in command. That doesn't make them right!

That's a really important distinction to make.

[ed 123] 28/11/2017 17:35

Hi Nigelpm.

Those results figures are not going to get investors buying the shares. The evidence is in front of you ..... 109p!

Yes, I've heard it many times: The world has gone mad, the market is not efficient, Soco is an overlooked gem, there is great news just around the corner, etc., etc., etc.

Communing in The Denial Club can be harmful to wealth. ;-/

[nigelpm] 28/11/2017 17:12

There need to be reasons for potential investors to buy the shares. Atm, there's nothing.

Nothing??

Are you sure - did you read the last set of results and the cash flow and strong balance sheet.

Perhaps it was an aberration but the figures don't lie.

[ed 123] 28/11/2017 16:55

A bit more or less at Cabinda is not material, not going to make any difference to Soco's share price. It almost hurts the share price as people will think they've got nothing else to sing about.

Closing auction uncrossed at 109p, the day's low. Efficient market at work again. A series of failed projects, lots of unfulfilled hopes, past problems with the partners on their major asset, nothing near term (and that includes the TGT water handling kit) to lift sentiment = share price disappointment.

Soco's share price is at 109p for good reasons.

Needs new CEO and Chairman, imo. Needs personnel and projects that give hope for the future. There need to be reasons for potential investors to buy the shares. Atm, there's nothing.

[emptyend] 28/11/2017 15:11

Its obvious. One of the partners has been cut back and/or dropped out.....IIRC there was some question over one of the partners, so we'll have taken 4/5 of 5% and ENI and others will also have increased. Not significant in any regard apart from the fact that it is now formalised with ENI as operator instead of Sonangol.

[greyingsurfer] 28/11/2017 13:38

that it's being rejigged isn't a surprise but that we've upped our stake is certainly a surprise, I can only assume the terms were very good, or perhaps its to do with getting in with ENI ?

It could also be connected to now having an operator who is presumably committed to getting on with a work program on the block? Though you could also well be correct that wider aspects of the relationship with ENI may also be significant!

Peter

[kenobi] 28/11/2017 13:19

that it's being rejigged isn't a surprise but that we've upped our stake is certainly a surprise, I can only assume the terms were very good, or perhaps its to do with getting in with ENI ?

K

[emptyend] 28/11/2017 12:42

Cabinda being finalised with a re-jig and operator change is no surprise. Presumably some sort of work programme will follow now that it has been formalised.

[ed 123] 28/11/2017 09:51

Thanks, Deld, that IEA report is a good read. :-)

I'm not sure how your arrived at,

"Oh and by the way they think the price of oil will keep declining.

I read the second paragraph on page 5 of the Executive Summary to say that, moving away from their central projection, if US tight oil supply did even better and there were an even more rapid switch to electric vehicles, and oil producers could keep up with demand - ie. three bigger than central projection negatives for the oil price - then they would see oil prices in the range of $50-$70 per barrel. Since the price of Brent has averaged around $53 per barrel over the past 12 months, I don't see this report as saying the oil price will keep declining. On the contrary, although they are not explicit about the future oil price, I feel they have in mind a central projection of perhaps $60 to $80 per barrel for the period up to the year 2040.

As for Soco, my view remains the same. If you believe in a higher oil price, then your money should not be in Soco, but the likes of Premier Oil instead. If you believe the oil price will decline, then you should sell Soco to protect your capital. If you want to be invested in an oil company that is going somewhere operationally, then look to the likes of Cairn Energy, not one which is stymied/moribund like Soco. The perception some here have that Soco is undervalued in the market is erroneous in my view. The 660k seller will put that money to work elsewhere. We will never know who or where but my instinct would be to follow that investor.

As ever, no advice intended and good luck to holders. :-)

[emptyend] 28/11/2017 03:41

Quite right re the conclusion, deld. There has certainly been underinvestment and a spike risk is building (Venezuela, Saudi, Iran etc).On the 660k, I imagine there will be some more lumpy trades coming soon. Current levels discount virtually all upside, so an attractive institutional entry point whilst there are sellers in decent size.

[deld] 27/11/2017 21:08

The World Energy Outlook report for 2017 is out. It takes much reading with emphasis on just how well the world is doing using and developing renewables. Who needs oil, gas and coal. Well we do. Hidden away is the projection that oil demand on a rising trajectory to 105 mb/d by 2040.

There is a continued large-scale need for investment to develop a total of 670 billion barrels of new resources to 2040, mostly to make up for declines at existing fields rather than to meet the increase in demand.

Oh and by the way they think the price of oil will keep declining.

Tight oil and gas production increases up to 2030 will make the USA the major exporter of oil and gas. Yes, really.

Make of it what you will. My impression is still that we are heading into troubled waters due to under investment in reserves.

hxxps://www.iea.org/weo2017/

[minesapint] 27/11/2017 20:04

Nigel. Another explanation is that this is an Institution (Fidelity?) that took the sell decision prior to oil price recovery and latest corporate news. Any large holder is going to struggle to off-load in 1 dump in this market.
It doesn't look like a shorter as stock-on-loan has been steady at less than 1%.

[pumph] 27/11/2017 19:56

The languishing price is all the more disappointing given the continued strength in the oil price, now close to $64 + premium.

[pumph] 27/11/2017 19:56

The languishing price is all the more disappointing given the continued strength in the oil price, now close to $64 + premium.

[nigelpm] 27/11/2017 19:31

I'd add that doesn't necessarily make Monsieur Marquette correct.

[ed 123] 27/11/2017 18:23

Agree. Or, as Keynes might have said,

"Markets can remain rational longer than perma-bulls can remain solvent."

;)

[nigelpm] 27/11/2017 15:59

Market remains utterly unconvinced - that's for sure.

[emptyend] 27/11/2017 15:19

....and remember also that £200k or so each went in at 155/160 in February......

[emptyend] 27/11/2017 15:17

Remember that these pre-agreed trading plans allow execution to take place during periods that would otherwise be deemed close periods. Not sure if that is a material observation......but we'll see.

[lauders] 22/11/2017 01:00

Let's hope we have a stonking trading update when it eventually comes then SIA. About time we had some head-turning news to set the share price on fire again. Seem to recall in the good old days that SIA used to be a regular leader-board mover or was that just my imagination?