Soco Share Discussion Threads

[emptyend] 21/11/2017 09:37

I'd simply note that there has been no trading update this month, despite having issued one by this time in each of the two years since the IMS requirement ceased.IMO that will be because they are waiting to include some other piece of news (as much of the info in trading updates isn't time sensitive). What that will be.....and when.....one can only guess at.

[nigelpm] 21/11/2017 08:26

Let's hope we wake up to something transformational in the next couple of months.

SQZ is an example of what can happen!

[ed 123] 19/11/2017 14:47

Ah, emptyend, my friend, when you read something you don't like, eg. my comments on India, it is not a personal attack. It is a different opinion.

And, as for your not liking my suggestion you might be short seller of Soco? .................. Others could see humour in it.

"... personal attacks ..." Do you think you might be taking things too seriously? Remember we sat next to each other at one of Soco's agms ..... all very polite and friendly between us.

PS. I don't mind being filtered but you may understand me better if you read all that I write, rather than snippets. :-)

[emptyend] 19/11/2017 14:02

Nigel, hecan witter on with his nonsense all he likes - he's on filter (one of only two, who are obsessed with personal attacks). Rather a shame that he can't simply stick to the topic of this board though.....?

[ed 123] 19/11/2017 13:49

:-)

"We must dare to think 'unthinkable' thoughts." - J William Fulbright

[nigelpm] 19/11/2017 12:12

Emptyend, are you a short seller of Soco International?

Ha ha - that gave me a chuckle. Almost on a par with suggesting Nigel Farage and ee voted to remain in the EU.

[ed 123] 19/11/2017 00:26

India, perhaps?

I'm taking this at face value, emptyend, although it's possible you're having a laugh.

Why on earth would any oil company seek to acquire assets in India when that country sees fit to change its tax law and then apply it retrospectively? Most places on the planet would be safer than India, imo.



One oil industry executive said the move was disappointing, adding: “This Indian government promised to end tax terrorism, but it seems they are still pursuing money under retrospective tax laws.”

Emptyend, are you a short seller of Soco International?

[emptyend] 17/11/2017 16:29

Indeed, fh. 125/6 will be interesting in time but the near term will be defined by deals and asset swaps.........India, perhaps?

[flyinghorse1] 17/11/2017 15:35

Things that come to mind (no research) --do ENI have seismic shot on 124-Can they do a combined shoot and share data etc

What I do know is it would be good to have some shorter term news rather than these far out projects. We need both but the silence is deafening on the day to day production front, 2018 program etc
FH

[emptyend] 17/11/2017 14:56

Re 125/6 I'd say shooting the 3D is Q3 2018 earliest (subject to weather) and any well is unlikely before Q1 2020 (6 months analysis, 3-4 months farmout, 6 months lead time and well planning).Remember the Cagles drop off the payroll next year.....not that they or Ed will be poor or short.....Just have a feeling there is a bit more to the 125/6 timing than meets the eye....perhaps we'll see......?

[kenobi] 17/11/2017 09:50

yes I agree ee, although some of the names you mention have a lot more to gain from investing the divis wisely and producing a bigger capital return too? and in the case of Misters Story and Cagle they're paid handsomely by the company, so not too much need for divis to fund life styles ! even Mrs Cagle is well remunerated as I recall.

Interesting point re 124, I do appreciate it all takes time, and that life works in years and work seasons, but it seems 2021 is a significant number of years away, and the dates you mention are closer to what I would expect, especially since we don't have to clear expenditure from PV, at least in theory. I would guess perhaps 6 months reprocessing, then shoot 3d next summer in areas of interest, again process that, and if early indications are that there's something to drill, start booking hardware for first drilling in 2019, perhaps a little tight, but in part it would depend on the demand for hardware, and how far ahead it needs to be booked. 21 seems an overly conservative estimate, but then it's easy to assume contractors are sitting there twiddling their thumbs waiting for a call from SOCO.

Perhaps its a conservative figure and we'll get an over delivery on that date ?

[emptyend] 17/11/2017 09:22

I'm not bothered about the divi either, kenobi, but if our surnames were Contini, Maugein, Cagle or Story we might think differently?With 125/6 it appears to be simply a case of working through existing data sets first and then planning and executing the 3D. Just takes time...........but it may not be wholly irrelevant that ENI has block 124 next door, IMO, given the possibility of asset swaps? I'd certainly like to see an acceleration and a well in late 2019 or early 2020.

[emptyend] 17/11/2017 07:04

Trouble with that logic EE is we have been waiting years for such a deal. We might be waiting a year or two more! Not so convinced something is going to arrive in 4 weeks or less but I sure hope you are right.Not really, Lauders. That wait required someone else to move for Soco. And, to be fair, they did so at least once - only to have the deal scuppered by the financial crisis.In this case they have at least half of the pieces under their own control - and have been signalling a Q4 deal since at least the AGM .......and have continued to do so.You'll note there is as yet no trading update on, for example, production in VN. Perhaps next week, along with other news?As regards to the dividend, that piece is simply not correct. If you look at the FT data sheets, you'll see that the 6 analysts are forecasting an average of an 8 cents dividend next year. I have been told very clearly (albeit by the retiring managment) that the dividend is paramount. And it isn't as if it is under any threat, given it is amply covered by both the cash pile and cash flow.

[lauders] 17/11/2017 01:07

4 deal-doing weeks left in the year

Trouble with that logic EE is we have been waiting years for such a deal. We might be waiting a year or two more! Not so convinced something is going to arrive in 4 weeks or less but I sure hope you are right.

In the meantime I hope that dividend remains at a decent yield since there is analyst talk it may be reduced:

Oil & gas minnow Soco International (LSE: SIA) has today announced a new production sharing agreement in offshore Vietnam, between it and PetroVietnam, SOVICO Holdings. The new deal will see Soco take on a 70% operated interest in two blocks, 125 & 126, located in moderate to deep water in the Phu Khanh Basin.

According to initial reports, both of these have “multiple structural and stratigraphic plays.” Interpretation of the existing data “indicates there is good potential for source, expulsion and migration of oil with numerous reservoir and seal intervals likely.” Soco is looking to further explore these prospects in the years ahead. Management is currently projecting that an exploration well could be drilled by 2021 if all goes to plan.

Steady growth via exploration

This is just the latest development in the history of Soco, a company that has produced huge returns for investors.

Indeed, over the past few years, it has built a reputation for itself as one of the oil sector’s best income stocks. This year, analysts believe that the company will return 5p per share to investors, giving a dividend yield of 4.4%. However, next year analysts are currently projecting the payout to drop to 1p, giving a token yield of only 0.9%.

I believe that this forecast is overly pessimistic. Full-year production guidance has been maintained at 8,000 to 9,000 barrels a day, and pre-tax profit is expected to double this year. Moreover, the company’s oil sells at a premium to the Brent benchmark, indicating the quality of the offering. The firm’s production costs in Vietnam are less than $13 per barrel, which is right at the bottom of the cost curve and as oil prices increase, operational gearing should result in higher cash generation.

Put simply, it looks as if City forecasts are highly conservative and Soco will remain a top dividend stock for the foreseeable future.

Hope TMF are correct about the overall picture.

[emptyend] 16/11/2017 17:35

.....good summary. Might almost have written it myself. Or put another way, thats precisely what I've argued in recent weeks.The trigger will be when they can finally announce a meaningful deal.....and in that context there are are only about 4 deal-doing weeks left in the year. I'd like to think that the formalisation of the Congo permits unlocks an asset swap that gives us some Asian assets in exchange for the remaining African ones.

[fredfishcake] 16/11/2017 11:56

SOCO rated a buy in this week's shares magazine. Article contains nothing that we don't know already.
"A recovery in the oil price
has yet to be reflected in
the shares of oil and gas
producer Soco International
(SIA), so get in quick before the
market realises this anomaly.
We think the improved
commodity price environment,
under a new executive team, can
help switch focus from several
years of managing decline to
a renewed focus on growth,
backed by an extremely strong
balance sheet."

[emptyend] 16/11/2017 07:42

.....hence the timing of their deal expectations? Certainly I think swapping asset packages is one possibility. Nothing more to do now in Congo this side of development being started (similar to ZIOC, in fact, where I also have a stake and which is also in Congo B)

[greyingsurfer] 16/11/2017 07:33

Congo news SOCO is pleased to announce that SOCO Exploration and Production SA ("SOCO EPC"), the Operator of the Marine XI Block, offshore the Republic of Congo (Brazzaville), has been informed that the applications for a 25-year exploitation permit ("PEX") over each of the Viodo, Lideka and Loubana areas have now been adopted by the Council of Ministers of the Republic of Congo (Brazzaville) and await publication in the Official Gazette. These applications covered areas that were previously part of the shallow water Marine XI permit, which expired at the end of March 2017 following a one-year extension.Peter

[invisage] 14/11/2017 00:57

US crude output set to rocket according to IEA Writes the FT The current Brent rally hasn't got much to go IMO.So much for reserves being written back.

[nigelpm] 13/11/2017 20:47

More like a loser Ed.

LOL - whenever Isaac pops up it's always worth filtering him.

[ed 123] 13/11/2017 19:04

Re, 20081: I'm not doing a personal attack, Invisage. It's just a bit of gallows humour on my part.

Fwiw, I bought some Ophir myself recently, happy to see it rise at first ....... but now it's slightly underwater.

Looking at the broader market, there has been some apparent profit taking in individual stocks. Some fearing a correction? Or, concerned about possible hard Brexit?

2017 may prove to be an odd year, one in which there is a market fall in the run-up to Christmas?

[ed 123] 13/11/2017 15:56

Hey, Nigelpm, I've noticed that you pop up here and on OPHR when the share price is under downward pressure.

You wouldn't be a short seller of both, would you? ;-)

[nigelpm] 13/11/2017 15:50

Seller not giving up here - same as OPHR.