Soco Share Discussion Threads

[lauders] 13/6/2017 07:41

Is it just me or is that RNS more on the positive side? I hope this is the start of a rerating here!

[lauders] 10/6/2017 03:45

Was looking for information on another holding I have and found this about Repsol. Seems they are expecting news from Vietnam 1st half of this year. Wonder if it will have any reflection on SIA too?



Milestones

In 2016, progress was made in the final detail definition phase of the Development Plan for the major exploration find of Ca Rong Do (CRD) and marketing of the gas produced. The CRD find is in marine block 07/03, where Repsol holds an ownership interest of 46.75%. As early as January 2015 the shareholders of block 07/03, together with PetroVietnam, approved the development plan for the CRD find and the declaration of commercial viability was completed in July. The final investment decision (FID) to develop and put this major find into production is expected to be taken in the first six months of 2017.

[emptyend] 09/6/2017 20:36

Precedent:https://www.energy-pedia.com/news/vietnam/new-156860

[flyinghorse1] 09/6/2017 19:51

Regarding reserves & licences-I had a quick refresh of YE2015 vs YE2016 from bowels of Annual reports.
TGT 2P+2C was 44.6mmboe YE2015 and is now 36.8mmboe (YE16) but they are still making downward revisions,which is surprising given a work program,higher price decks and lower costs.

CNV 2P+2C was 15.7mmboe YE2015 and is now 9.4mmboe (YE16) due to a cluster by GCA (Gaffney Cline reserves auditors) in the stated YE2015 2C so they have had to revise down by 6.7mmboe simply thru misstating.

This signals to me that no one in the company owns the reserves as this should have been spotted,elephant in the room and all that.


Regarding license extensions SPE PRMS allows for the booking of reserves beyond the current license extension where there is precedent or high likelihood of an extension though they are suggested to be in 2P category.
For me that's key --is there any other precedents out there in Vietnam for previous license extensions.

Not to impressed that the YE reserves/resources continue top drop (2p+2C net wi group YE 2016 was 46.2mmboe and yearly production is circa 3.6mmboe.

FH

[ed 123] 09/6/2017 18:55

Hi Kenobi.

Yes, we'll see. The default situation, though, is 'no extension'. Then all Soco's share of remaining producible oil goes to the government anyway. The Government very much has the stronger hand. If the Government squeezes Soco too hard and Soco walk away from any extension, the Government still wins.

Yes, Blocks 125 and 126 are taking some time to sign over to Soco. It's possible the parties are working on a larger agreement, taking in TGT extension, a licence for Blocks 125/126 and the proportions (and carries?) of TGT and the new blocks going to PetroVietnam.

On the oil price, there's talk that some parties might seek to sell oil back down to $40/bbl. Stocks are very high and apparently slow to come down, and those who are not party to OPEC's production limits are pumping away.

Fwiw, I can't see Soco's share price rising much from here for the rest of this year - combination of oil price outlook and lack of material news from Soco.

Maybe the AGM will give some cheer?

[kenobi] 09/6/2017 17:37

ed123, I guess it depends what value they percieve they are getting from SOCO doesn't it ?

Obviously they won't give us anything for nothing, and obviously SOCO won't do it if they have to pay full value, a deal would need to be somewhere in between.

At the moment I'd like to hear more about block 125/126 (or whatever they're called), is that now finalised ? have we had to give a slice to petro vietnam (carried) to get that through ? at last year's agm we were told the partner was well connected to the PM or government, if that's really true, we should be makeing some progress,

G

[ed 123] 09/6/2017 16:30

Adding back some of the resources into the reserves category would obviously be good but would a licence extension be necessarily good?

Remember that Soco (afaiaa) was never paid anything for its share of all the gas produced at TGT. Also, there has been significant delay in getting agreement to carry out extra development drilling at TGT. This suggests to me that the Government of Vietnam and PetroVietnam manage their interests to get the very best outcome (as they see it) for themselves. So, if it comes to the possibility of a licence extension, won't the Government of Vietnam want to be paid the full present value of Soco's expected additional profit? And if that is the case, what's the point? Better to use those funds to diversify - buy production elsewhere? Having all one's eggs in the same basket is risky.

[emptyend] 09/6/2017 15:58

Correct kenobi. And, equally to the point, one can't forecast when some of these events might actually occur. For example, if there were to be a licence extension, one is unlikely to know when in advance.....

[kenobi] 09/6/2017 14:21

well hang on,

the issue was that there was no development plan for the production of some of the reserves, so they were downgraded. Since then there has been more drilling, with more planned, not only that but they've added extra equiptment to the platforms to remove the water bottleneck from the fpso,

also note that the fpso lease has a break clause in 2018, so there's some leverage there.

It sounds to me that they're doing all they can to get production up and get the reserves reclassified. If / When this will happen, well that's another story, and the lease time is ticking away of course,

[stepone68] 09/6/2017 13:51

Never, unless they get agreement on a production increase, or a license extension.

[bhoddhisattva] 09/6/2017 13:45

Sorry for late reply tournesol - been distracted by various non-SOCO stuff.

My question is prompted simply by the fact that - unless my memory is playing tricks -the SOCO share price suffered a double-whammy a while back - the POO dropping but also the downgrading of a lot of our reserves ... I want to know if/when/waht they're doing to get these revalued - upwards!

[fangorn2] 09/6/2017 04:15

@Greyingsurfer.

You'll note I responded to someone's drivel! Perhaps have a go at them eh!

[greyingsurfer] 08/6/2017 17:37

Fangorn, can you not read the header to this board. It's the Soco board.Peter

[kenobi] 08/6/2017 16:48

Guys, we don't really want this to turn into a palestinian conflict board, do we ?

it's an interesting topic, but can you take it off board if you want to discuss it ?

It's an interesting hypothesis that we'd be better off without the middle east, what would we have done for oil, for the last 70 or so years without the middle east ?

of course if it all disappeared tomorrow, the soco assets would be worth a whole lot more !!

K

[adam] 08/6/2017 16:47

The Arabs are the more recent invaders into the ME. The Jews have been there for over 3000 years. Jerusalem is the site of the 1st and 2nd Temples. They have tried to rewrite history, even the name Palestine is not Arab, but a Roman corruption of Philistina.

[volsung] 08/6/2017 16:33

The Israelis want all Palestinian land and they are getting it piece by piece.

[fangorn2] 08/6/2017 16:31

@TomKe,

Israel is a Democracy though - do you dispute that?
It's also the only democracy in the Middle East fyi

That's good enough for me.

Palestinians have been offered numerous opportunities to have peace over last 60 odd years - that they chose not to is their fault. Ho many times was Israel attacked, for no reason by the Arab countries surrounding it. 67,73 - daily rocket attacks from Civilian protected rocket sites.

I see you're a Pro Palestinian from your anti semtic diatribe. You must be a Labour voter as well! :)

[tomke22] 08/6/2017 14:04

Re: Fangorn2.
This board is not the place to explore this but I don't accept holding up Israel as a 'beacon of light'.

The Israeli's INHO are a thoroughly nasty group of people. They are very good at propaganda and Jews throughout the West have greatly aided them. If the US didn't pay billions each year to sustain it the colony of Israel would cease to exist. Funded by the US it co0ntinues to grow stealing more and more land in the West Bank and Jerusalem.

The Israeli's of course sincerely want peace its just they spell it differently to us. The Israeli's want piece, and another piece, and another piece ..

Tom

[jotoha2] 08/6/2017 13:53

Does it know , so little volume and the share price is being walked down , will take a punt if it hits your magic 1.20p .

[buywell3] 08/6/2017 12:56

Chart says it thinks sub 120p likely

dyor

[jotoha2] 08/6/2017 12:48

Are we expecting any news before AGM ??

[fangorn2] 08/6/2017 12:44

World would be a far better place if, outside of Israel, the only democracy in the area, the Middle East didn't exist.

[tomke22] 08/6/2017 09:58

The mysteries of Arab politics. I think Qatar is in trouble with Saudi not for financing Daesh and Al Kaida but for trying to maintain good relations with Iran.

If Saudi can't win their war in Yemen I don't think they would be wise to start another one with Iran.

I bought some more Lloyd's recently following Woodford. I maybe should have sold Soco and switched those assets as well. It's hard to see what will break the multi year underperformance of this share.

Tom