Soco Share Discussion Threads

[emptyend] 06/7/2017 09:03

Oil is going to $5, remember.......https://fabiusmaximus.files.wordpress.com/2015/01/drowning-in-oil.jpg

[buywell3] 06/7/2017 08:41

It's happening

OIL could hit $25 within 3 years


5 July 2017 | UPDATED: 00:28, 6 July 2017

Volvo sounds death knell for petrol cars: Swedish giant announces it will fit an electric motor to all new models from 2019

Volvo will be the first mainstream car maker to ditch combustion-only engines
Instead the cars will be fully electric or hybrid, combining electric and conventional engines

Five new electrified cars will be launched between 2019 and 2021
Three will be Volvos and two Polestars - Volvo's high-performance sub-brand


The death of the traditional car rolled closer yesterday after Volvo announced it was going electric.

The Swedish firm known for its chunky diesel estates said no model brought in after next year would rely solely on an internal combustion engine.

Instead the cars will be fully electric or hybrid, combining electric and conventional engines.

The RAC Foundation suggested it could be 'the spark which turns modern motors electric'.

No longer an electric dream: Volvo will not make a diesel or petrol-only model ever again as of 2019 after promising that every new car will have an electric motor


Figures out yesterday showed a 15 per cent drop in UK sales of diesels following dire warnings about air pollution deaths and costly levies.

The data from the Society of Motor Manufacturers and Traders also revealed a surge in sales of electric and hybrid models.

Volvo, which is owned by China's Geely, said it will launch five electric cars by 2021. It has yet to build any at its factories in Sweden, Belgium, China and the US but does make four hybrid models.



Read more:

[buywell3] 06/7/2017 08:22

120p now under threat again as OIL slumps due to over supply

But if you read the news today re Volvo .... wind forwards 10 years ... and OIL will be in MASSIVE over supply as the majority of vehicles will be either 100% electric or hybrids.

Thus $25 OIL is looking not so silly now

OIL companies who can need to get diversified into other profitable companies with growth potential

The OIL industry is going to be a lame duck in less than 10 years


buywell3 - 21 Jun 2017 - 08:06:09 - 19550 of 19613 SOCO - The Endgame - SIA
I know many of you think my sub 100p call is out of kilter with your own pink views


However my call was purely based upon OIL staying in a trading range of around $40 to $50 till at least 2018

OK it went over $50 briefly as many believed OPEC and Russia would rise the price

USA Shale put a stop to that along with more OIL from Libya,Iran and Nigeria

So what lies ahead ?

You better not hope this comes to pass:

''The Bank of Russia offered a sobering outlook on oil in its latest monetary-policy report, saying output growth in those three countries--along with a slowing economy in China and general ebbing demand for energy--could result in prices hitting $25 a barrel by mid-2018. Crude hasn't been that low since 2003.''

The SIA chart has now lost 120p support

100p comes next

dyor

But focus on the BIG picture first

[kev0856153] 04/7/2017 11:53

tournesol21 Jun '17 - 08:08 - 19551 of 19571 0 1
I held off buying earlier in the year because it was always possible that the share price could retest 120p. Question now is can it test 100p?


I hope everyone ignored the scare-mongerers.

[fangorn2] 04/7/2017 11:43

Oil halts longest winning run this year as OPEC output expands

OPEC production in June climbed to the highest level this year as Libya and Nigeria pumped more, according to data compiled by Bloomberg.

OPEC output rose by 260,000 barrels a day to 32.55 million in June, according to a Bloomberg News survey of analysts, oil companies and ship-tracking data. Half of the increase came from Libya and Nigeria, while Saudi Arabia boosted production by 90,000 barrels a day.

"Didn't think it'd be long before Opec production rose"


U.S. crude inventories probably dropped by 2.5 million barrels last week, a Bloomberg survey shows before a government report on Thursday.

[buywell3] 03/7/2017 16:44

Looks like Trump is going to come up with loads of GAS

Enough to blow off Russia

[haideralifool] 24/6/2017 16:55

Peter, I've just noticed that Roula Khalaf writing in the FT reports on an Arab diplomat making the same analogy - I honestly had not read that piece when I wrote this!

[greyingsurfer] 24/6/2017 16:14

I had to look that one up, HA. Fascinating reading, I'd forgotten all those issues from the time!Peter

[haideralifool] 24/6/2017 11:48

I think Trump/Kushner may be having an April Glaspie moment and if events in the M.E. became interesting - that would have obvious consequences for oil.

[emptyend] 23/6/2017 19:14

Investopia,Very good questions indeed! Probably the best I've been asked in some years!Yes I first invested on a sector view at a point when The Economist had a cover proclaiming that oil would go to $5. They were wrong. Soco at the time was the cheapest stock in the sector (and one of three I bought....but the only one I continued to buy).What do I think of the sector's prospects now? Sentiment is very poor. But it could also turn very quickly. Personally I think the driver will be politics - people seem far too complacent about the global imbalances in energy security. Do I expect a near-term change? No. I think it may take another 3 years. That will probably mean oil won't be "the" sector for a while yet....but, as I said, that could change quickly, so I'm happy to hold at this stage.Would I buy Soco again now? Yes - if I wanted an oil company. Management know what they are doing, have a good deal of skin in the game and the balance sheet is solid. That applies to very few others, IMO. I think management have been chastened to find partner alignment wasn't as strong as expected (despite choosing two NOCs!).....and are keen to get things back on track.

[buywell3] 23/6/2017 16:27

tournesol

Good last post I concur with most of it

Kev you sound like an embittered loser , which shares did you get burnt on ?

[kev0856153] 23/6/2017 12:25

LOL. I'd take anything Tournesol posts with a large pinch of salt. He has a nasty habit of going around filtering people and making a big deal about. Turns out he's not been filtering them at all. Tournesol I'm very happy you continue to read my posts. Hopefully you will learn something about investing.

[ed 123] 23/6/2017 11:52

Tournesol. Reference your post 19598, I've given you an uptick. Very sound. :-)

[stepone68] 23/6/2017 11:45

Invisage - EE was pro-HYP and has said in the past he would likely move to HYP-style investing at some point. The fight with Pyad was pretty specific to Soco, iirc.

[investopia] 23/6/2017 11:45

Tournesol, will you take an IOU?

[investopia] 23/6/2017 11:41

That is a great outcome for you EE, a spectacular success, and I can see why it leads to your apparent relaxed approach to holding Soco shares now.

Do you reckon the oil sector will become the 'right' sector again?

If you didn't have an investment in Soco, would you make a new one now?

I'm guessing that when you first invested in the sector it was justified on value grounds, maybe because the price of oil was depressed and you had some kind of insight or vision about the future direction of the oil price?

Do you, perhaps, feel as positive about the future prospects of the industry as you did when you first went into Soco?

p.s. this debate is fascinating to me, all, but feel free to close it if it's too off topic.

[tournesol] 23/6/2017 11:38

The Tournesol school of investing.

1.0.1 - Introduction to the course


I've been investing for about 35 years.

The downside = I lost two thirds of my money when the tech boom crashed in 2001-2 (or rather a professional investment manager lost it for me). I recovered but then lost half for myself when the banking crash occurred in 2008.

The upside - I've made more than I've lost, mostly in E&P stocks. Best returns came from DNX where I practised LTBH but traded in and out a couple of times so ended up with a 25 bagger. I took decent gains from Soco on 2 separate occasions, I took excellent profits from AEX on 2 or 3 occasions - most recently earlier this year when I sold at 6.5p the shares I'd bought a few months earlier for less than 2p. I made a lot from BUR and Woodford and Hardman and lots of others.

I retired early about 16 years ago and have lived very well on my investment returns ever since.

Main thing I've learned is not to fall prey to hubris - the best analysis in the world is still fallible and does not always lead to a successful investment decision - and not to over-commit/over-engage - you should always be prepared to sell if things go wrong. You can always buy back later.

You do not get rewarded for loyalty to a share/company that goes into decline. You get punished. If the share/company stops declining and recovers then every johnny come lately gets just as much reward as every wounded long termer. So pain and pleasure are not inseparable. I aim to separate them.

What I aim to do is LTBH when things are going reasonably well, or at least not badly, but active watching from the sidelines when things get rough. I also aim to sit out periods of potential disruption - eg the referendum.

It works for me.

It can work for you too if you sign up to my course - INVESTING _ A PRAGMATIC APPROACH BASED ON ACTIVE RISK MANAGEMENT.

Normal price £9,999 but yours for only £5,999 if you sign up today.

[invisage] 23/6/2017 10:43

Small caps outperform in bull markets but kill you in a down turn. Ask Paul Scott.Large caps more often then not recover with rare cases some don't. Which is why they can keep churning out decent returns year after year.Don't think GSK AZN RELX BATS ULVR shareholders are disappointed with their returns over the last several yearsBest to look for long term high quality business franchises with high returns on capital strong cash flow conversion of all or most profits and high operating margins minimal debt and own them for life. Good brands are great to own.Learn to do nothing when you found a company that meets above criteria.

[ed 123] 23/6/2017 10:30

Why do you say it's rubbish, Kev0856153?

[kev0856153] 23/6/2017 10:26

buywell323 Jun '17 - 09:51 - 19591 of 19592 0 0
Now that is an interesting post

My view is that it is best to buy and hold in small caps but only where you have done your homework well ie researched and you are happy with the CEO and sector


Absolute rubbish. It sounds like you are a fully-fledged student of the Tournesol school of investing.

[emptyend] 23/6/2017 10:12

Just to add, as a long-term holder, that I have already had more than 10x my original investment back in dividends and still have shares worth 15x my original investment. I sold about 5% of my holding at the equivalent of £5.50 and paid for a substantial house extension.THAT is long-term shareholding. Looking at the last three years of disappointment is merely a short-term irritation. Sure, if I had thought in 2014 that oil prices would fall below $75-80 and stay there, I would have sold very much more. But I didn't. But, to repeat once again, the reason the share price isn't still at £4+ (pre-divis) is ALL about the oil price. Pretending that it is anything company-specific is flat-out wrong. We've been in the wrong sector for the last three years.....and that is all there is to it.....back to the beach now...