Soco Share Discussion Threads

[ed 123] 13/7/2017 15:49

That's the nub of the problem; private investor mispricing.

Eg. Dana Petroleum was 'stolen'. Encore oil went to a cash offer of 70p when it had been as high as 150p, Ithaca Energy went for 119p but many shareholders were unhappy.

[nigelpm] 13/7/2017 14:49

I've got fair value well north of 180p so an initial bid around certainly possible.

[ed 123] 13/7/2017 14:38

He's not joking, btw. He really does think 180p.

Can he be helped?

[emptyend] 13/7/2017 14:36

...ps.....I am factoring in some elements of upside that aren't in the present market price, largely because no deal would be done without reflecting such items.

[emptyend] 13/7/2017 14:33

jotoha2.......the number I had in mind was 180p at present. Plainly the market doesn't think that....at least it doesn't think that today. Mind you, I can think of several companies where the market valuations are IMO substantially wrong at present......and I think those misvaluations are more substantial in percentage terms than they were at the start of the year.

[ed 123] 13/7/2017 14:27

Emptyend's "Endgame" for Soco is 10 years old now. How many times has he said Soco is so undervalued that bid is possible? I've lost count.

Looking back over those 10 years, the share price is at or very close to its low point.

From January 2016 to now, the oil price has recovered from $28 to $48/bbl, whereas Soco's share price has gone from 121p to 114p. What does that say?

Fwiw, I think it'll dip under 100p at some point. Sector sentiment is poor and company performance has been poor.

[ed 123] 13/7/2017 14:05

A bid for Soco???? Dream on, Emptyend.

I don't see anyone paying to be put in Soco's position - being stuck in a partnership where others can slow or stop progress, having all the production in one country, having a main field where significant quantities of water are being produced, having a main asset whose licence will expire before the reservoir is fully depleted.

Take off the rose-tinteds. See it like it really is.

Soco is in decline.

[jotoha2] 13/7/2017 13:52

So what do you think sia is worth in this low oil price time period, the market is not that excited at this time.

[emptyend] 13/7/2017 13:31

That's the nub of the problem. There never appears to be any rush in a market like this......but PMO shares now cost a third more than they did two days ago.I always wonder "if there was a bid approach tomorrow, what price would it need to be?". I'd suggest the premium for an SIA would need to be much greater than for most others in the sector.

[tournesol] 13/7/2017 11:14

Lauders

I'm seriously thinking about it, but am in no rush.

T

[emptyend] 13/7/2017 10:56

I don't disagree with the idea that some decent news is needed. And I am certain (from the AGM) that it is being worked upon.However, other than even more people getting bored waiting (and the general weight on the sector arising from market-wide sentiment on oil prices) I can't see any reason at all for further falls.........and (though we appear to have no news of equivalent substance in the offing!) yesterday's PMO news shows that even larger companies can still put on 30% in a day on an RNS.Dull, perhaps.......but no-one outside the board (and advisors) really knows what (and when) events may happen.

[investopia] 13/7/2017 09:22

It looks like it wants to go further down (and I'd argue that such 'analysis' is as valid as any other just now.)

[lauders] 13/7/2017 02:41

What a sorry chart/share price! We are now at multiple year lows. I wonder if I can entice tournesol to buy now ;-) Probably no chance. The BOD really need to produce some decent news here or we will be seeing sub-100p!

[emptyend] 11/7/2017 19:43

.....not the only thing fossilised around here either.......broken record?

[deld] 11/7/2017 17:06

Think you will find that oil is a fossilised fuel.

[buywell3] 11/7/2017 16:53

Tesla money has gone into Lithium Ion battery production plant in Utah

Making batteries for Electricity Power station backup supplies

As well as for domestic installations

As well as for cars,where they will now face a lot more competition and so the price of EV cars is set to below those of internal combustion types.

OIL is going to become a fossilised fuel

[deld] 11/7/2017 15:35

Interesting what happens to markets when subsidies are cut. Did not take long for the man in the street to follow the money.

Tesla sales to Denmark 2014: 460
2015: 2738
2016: 176
2017 (q1): 6

hxxp://nordic.businessinsider.com/denmark-is-killing-tesla-with-a-jaw-dropping-94-sales-drop--and-elon-musk-saw-it-coming-2017-6/

[buywell3] 11/7/2017 08:03

See what WB is buying and ask yourselves why

[fangorn2] 10/7/2017 19:30

Pretty sure "politicians" have another solution in mind Buywell.

[buywell3] 10/7/2017 16:45

Problem is that politicians are going to follow France and save us folks from polluting planet earth with smog and diesel fumes.

Plus EV cars are going to be cheaper within 10 years

OIL for cars is no going the way of the dodo

[nigelpm] 10/7/2017 16:19

Jet fuel is the problem however efficiencies in aircraft technology with neo variants is starting to make a big difference in fuel usage.

[deld] 10/7/2017 14:04

Continuing this discussion of fossil fuel usage against perceived gain by renewables. The world bank shows that for the last fifty years the total world wide percentage of fossil fuels has remained steady at +-80%. When you factor in the inevitable population rise to around eleven billion and with many aspiring to middle class status then regardless of how many batteries we stick in fields alongside wind farms and solar it really is not going to make a dent in the amount we are compelled to keep extracting.

[emptyend] 10/7/2017 12:50

nb...Malcy's blog reports last week's US oil demand at over 22mn bopd.......which is the highest since records began in 1990. Impressive.......

[emptyend] 10/7/2017 12:43

Yes that seems a fair summation of the macro picture, Steve. Perhaps one consequence would be jet fuel becoming comparatively more expensive?It might also increase the premium for lighter crudes?

[steve73] 10/7/2017 09:45

A typical breakdown of a Western European refinery's product slate would be as follows: (lighter or heavier crudes would vastly different, but most refineries would blend crudes to give approximately this breakdown.

Gas (incl. own use fuel gas & LPGs) - 10%
Gasoline 35-40% (probably around 20% straight run & reformed, 15-20% cracked)
Jet Fuel 10-15% (all straight run)
Diesel 30-35% (25% straight run, 5-10% cracked)
Residue 10% (typically used as ship bunker fuel)

There is only limited flexibility to change cut points, so if gasoline demand were to reduce markedly (with the introduction of BEV's, for example), then it could only partly be offset by producing more jet fuel.

Heavy land transport diesel usage could be replaced by CNG (compressed natural gas), but there is not a easy replacement for jet-fuel.

IMO, BEV's may take up much of the expected GROWTH in small vehicles, but are unlikely to actually replace many of the existing for many decades to come.
Gobal Crude consumption is likely to continue to increase for at least 15-20 years.