Soco Share Discussion Threads

[deld] 16/6/2017 18:52

And the outlook for UK shale = zero

While a domestic shale industry would boost the UK energy security, Prof Jon Gluyas, executive director at the Durham Energy Institute (DEI) at Durham University, says ‘the evidence that the UK could replicate the US experience is close to zero’.

“Our shales are gas rich but that is where the similarity ends. Extraction will be difficult due to unfavourable geological and geographical factors and societal opposition. In the last decade only a handful of wells have been drilled compared with the tens of thousands in the USA."

“Moreover, not one of the UK wells has led to development of a shale-gas field.”

[emptyend] 16/6/2017 17:54

....makes no difference to me. I won't be trading........ :-)

[buywell3] 16/6/2017 17:52

you mean you hope the bottom is in

120p is a big number chartwise

If it fails then 100p comes next

OIL is dropping and its down to Mr Trump

[emptyend] 16/6/2017 17:00

....biggest volume day for over 18 months. Suspect the bottom is in, absent another oil price collapse.

[nigelpm] 16/6/2017 13:58

Appreciate the reply ed but not seen evidence of much of what you write to be honest. Most folk here generally very realistic and hardly bullish at all. Discussion of the large seller worthwhile on the context of recent price moves against sector

[emptyend] 16/6/2017 11:10

887,400 trade an hour ago might suggest that a seller has finally been cleared out?

[buywell3] 16/6/2017 08:07

Increased U.S. oil production this year has been helping hamper efforts led by the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries to get global inventories back to their 5-year average. Production cuts, which started in January, haven't yet resulted in much progress on that effort, resulting in the output caps being extended until March. But some analysts have said that even then, supplies may still be above OPEC's goal.

Earlier this week, the International Energy Agency offered a grim forecast that a gusher of new supplies from the U.S. stands to keep the market well-flushed for some time.

The U.S. Energy Department echoed that sentiment on Thursday, saying that some inventory declines through summer may nudge prices higher the next few months, possibly resulting in even-higher domestic output in 2018 than currently anticipated.

Light, sweet crude futures traded on the New York Mercantile Exchange for delivery in July was recently down 3 cents at $44.43 a barrel and August Brent on London's ICE Futures exchange was flat at $46.92.

This year's rebound in U.S. oil production and 17% drop in prices have drawn harsh criticisms about OPEC's wisdom in implementing the output cuts at the first place. "By setting impossible objects, by promising unreachable targets, OPEC ministers only managed to further motivate U.S. producers," said Mohab Kamel, a trader at Geneva-based Magma Oil.

[ed 123] 15/6/2017 22:13

Hi Nigelpm.

Reference your post 19528, you ask why I bother to post. As I think you know, I used to own Soco shares and I used to go the agms, following 'things Soco' as well as I could. I even started a board when this one was full of political content and nothing Soco.

These days, although I don't hold, I continue to follow Soco because there may come a time when I see more value in the shares than the stockmarket gives credit for. If that happened it could trigger my return to holding. So, there's no emotional attachment here for me; I just try to see things in an objective way. As to the content of my posts, there are times when some posters here write messages which I think are unrealistically positive. It's at those times that I'm likely to write - in the interest of providing some balance. I wouldn't like to see newcomers being swept along and losing money, and the experienced regulars may like some balance too.

I am not permanently anti-investing in Soco. If I see Soco as a 'buy' I will say so. At the moment I see it as a 'sell'. I could go on and explain why I'd sell now but I doubt you would want to read that.

In summary, I see the Bulletin Boards as places where people can provide information, exchange ideas, give viewpoints, and so on. They should not be a place where a 'Group Think' prevails.

If the time should come when I thought Soco was a 'buy' and I posted to that effect, would you still critisise me?

[emptyend] 15/6/2017 15:25

thanks for the reminder of why I filter no-lifes, Lauders... Simply pathetic.

[lauders] 15/6/2017 15:20

Think only those who invested on their own account lost their money. It was their decision not EE's and they had opportunity to sell long before the big drop. I include myself among them. Yes I listened to EE, but it was my choice in the end. My decision, a stupid one in hindsight but such is life. More sensible now I hope!

[invisage] 15/6/2017 15:06

New low....well done ee You have lost some ppl serious sums of money.

[nigelpm] 15/6/2017 12:16

Why look at all at the occasional chunky trade? It's just 'noise'. The bigger picture is what matters; it is that which will make you richer or poorer.

Why do you bother to post on boards you have no financial interest in?

That's the real question...

[kenobi] 15/6/2017 10:43

ee,

we were talking about shale at the agm, do you recall the article you mentioned ?
just been looking at this one from forbes, which is interesting, suggests that recovery from shale wells has risen from 5% to 12%, and BP suggest in 5 years time they might be upto 25%, this should have a dramatic impact on the breakeven of shale wells, assuming it's not prohibitively expensive,

www.forbes.com/sites/ucenergy/2016/08/31/when-global-oil-prices-tanked-shale-oil-production-didnt-heres-why/#156d7e1918ba

[ed 123] 15/6/2017 10:37

Nigelpm.

"There are none so blind as those who will not see. The most deluded people are those who choose to ignore what they already know."
Thomas Chalkley, 1713.

Look at what you paid for your Soco shares and look at their value today. Is it going well for you?

Why look at all at the occasional chunky trade? It's just 'noise'. The bigger picture is what matters; it is that which will make you richer or poorer.

[nigelpm] 15/6/2017 10:27

Hardly a theory when you see it in front of you - another 0.5m gone through as well.

[buywell3] 15/6/2017 10:05

Chart looking at 120p for now

But if OIL slips to $40 or less then 100p likely this time round

dyor

[ed 123] 15/6/2017 09:46

Shareprice movements?

Why even consider theories like players dropping the price to get a large trade away?

Why not look at the obvious first?

Viz:-

(1) Soco has performed poorly at the operational level. (Blame PV, if you like, but the bare fact is that Soco has done poorly.)

(2) Soco's strategic play of seeking a new income source in Africa failed. (Blame poor luck, if you like, but the fact remains.)

(3) Soco's income comes from selling a commodity and the supply/demand prospects for that commodity look poor.

Eg. "... increase in demand is set to be outpaced by growth in supply. Total non-Opec production in 2018, led by the US, is set to rise by 1.5m b/d — or more than double the rate of growth this year."



There is no conspiracy theory or suchlike behind Soco's fall to 123p. The fall is simply a reflection of Soco's poor performance and worsening outlook.

Shareholders who deny the facts lose money.

[emptyend] 15/6/2017 09:34

Fidelity trading in and out, I think, having sold some around 1.45. Soco isn't really the first stock you would trade in and out of on an oil price view (that would be PMO, I think).

[nigelpm] 15/6/2017 09:29

I'm making the assumption that price was stable 125-130p and needed to fall to 123p to get the deal done - could be wrong but had that feel about it to me.

[emptyend] 15/6/2017 09:27

Not quite, Nigel......but its a lumpy trade. Given institutional complaints about illiquidity (referred to at the AGM) it is noteworthy that £1.25mn can be traded at the market price. Given the oil market set-up, differences of view can be expected......but in SIA's case it is basically a difference of timeframes IMO. Short-term anything could happen, but longer-term (H2) things look better.

[nigelpm] 15/6/2017 09:23

1m trade at 123.5 - AKA get me out at any price. Might be showing signs of a bottom ready to form - crude oil price clearly most important driver though.

[emptyend] 14/6/2017 19:53

Cerrito...... Yes - but possibly less of an appetite? Spirit still very willing - but there does need to be change.

[cerrito] 14/6/2017 19:42

ee Thanks for AGM write up
It has been some time since I have been able to make an AGM; as you point out in your last post management is of a certain age and did you get any impression if they still have fire in their belly??