Soco Share Discussion Threads

[emptyend] 26/3/2017 09:16

Quite likely fh. What they won't be considering is moose pasture exploration.

[flyinghorse1] 26/3/2017 00:11

I suspect SOCO are looking at some of the potential divestment from the Shell/BG deal. These are likely to be of far higher quality than any distressed asset sales.
Things that come to mind are Myanmar.

[adam] 25/3/2017 23:46

Did it go through the P&L account? I don't recall there was a provision for it?

[buywell3] 25/3/2017 22:50

Without the sale of the Mongolia asset the loss would have been much bigger

Which begs the question

What asset around $50M is left for sale in 2017 ?

[emptyend] 25/3/2017 08:29

The Hess deal was 2002: ...possibly some aspects didn't complete until early 2003?

[lauders] 25/3/2017 03:16

At a current offer of 133p the dividend yield announced this week stands at 3.76% which isn't too bad. Depends if any other payments are made later in the year. If so year will be over 5% at least (?) so on a risk/reward basis SIA may start to appeal to others I suppose. May even consider more myself at this rate to bring my average down. There are some who say that is NOT a good policy to follow (averaging down that is!).

PS - EE would you please add a link to SIA's website in the header?

PPS - The table on page 14 of the presentation post results looks interesting. Just wish they had included the sums paid for the businesses mentioned before disposal. Just for the record and to be fully transparent. Here are a couple of posts from the wonderful Davjo (RIP) back then that sums up some points: and
Found the HESS acquisition mentioned at the top of page 63 here:

I can only find one acquisition RNS from 2003 and it doesn't seem to be HESS related?

Here is the OPECO one:

Lastly the 2012 Soco Vietnam stake:

[ntv] 24/3/2017 15:59

anyone got the VW average price for the last couple of days?
TIA

[yasrub] 24/3/2017 14:40

I have added to my position, it was difficult to put through a straightforward buy order with my cheap online broker. SIA seems to be unloved but the prelims to my mind were positive, always good to receive the outstanding debt - at last it looks like some alignment on TGT, a not be sniffed at 5p divi and some potential with Congo. Big IF but should SIA catch some excitement available stock seems to be limited.

[hywel] 24/3/2017 14:20

Came here to post and Redhill had posted something similar! Sold nearly half mine in early January at 159p as frankly had got fed up with Soco, it had a decent run up in December and I'm bearish on the oil price. Turned out to be one of my better decisions this year.
Was looking to buy back in about 125p but I actually don't think we'll get that low again and after more positive recent results I'm thinking about buying some more at this price. I'm still bearish on oil though which is holding me back, but less so at $48 than I was at $53.

[redhill9] 24/3/2017 12:02

After selling 75% of my holding in the 150/160p range on nervousness last year I've been buying back recently around the 135p range. Seems to me the risk/reward ratio looks to have improved with recent updates and the prospect of perhaps re-booking some reserves over the next year would potentially give a step-change to the share price

[emptyend] 24/3/2017 11:56

Not that I particularly want to encourage you, tournesol (big enough to make your own decisions ;-)), but I do think there is a risk of waiting too long. I recently bought some for a relative at 131p.It would only take some institutional interest to get the price firming up. I suspect there isn't a vast supply of stock out there at these levels.I can't imagine that many people expected to see a 5p dividend this time....and the process of monetising Congo has been underway for some months and is arguably not fully in the models. Deals can happen at any time.....for all we know they may have some lined up (given the comments about a short window of opportunity and the recent business development expansion).

[stepone68] 24/3/2017 11:29

The price hasn't touched 120 since the pound devalued post EU referendum. 130 has been the low since then more or less.

[tournesol] 24/3/2017 11:16

FWIW I'm considering buying back in here.

I sold my previous large holding a few years ago. I've recently bought back into a few E&P's:- PMG, HUR, SDX and AEX. (I decided that discretion was the better part of valour and exited the latter after just a few months for a decent short term gain. I might well go back in when there is more visibility of the situation at Ntorya.) My holdings are all relatively small by historical standards - 1% in PMG and HUR and 5% in SDX All are motivated more by the long term strategic outlook for the co than by short term share price movements. All of these companies have management that look pretty solid to me which is a sine qua non.

SIA also has management that are completely solid, has no debt and low risk assets which are cash cows. The share price is looking undemanding and I have little doubt that a purchase at current levels will be profitable.

I'm mainly holding back because sentiment seems pretty disaffected and it is entirely possible for the price to come back towards 120 as it has done several times previously.

No rush.

[emptyend] 24/3/2017 09:32

Hi Lauders,Unfortunately it is very difficult to repair the damage of very mistimed purchases that were't cut early enough. At least in SOCO's case they will have paid out about 80p per share to holders in recent years - which is pretty material.There are very few examples of companies in the sector which are now trading above their share price of three years ago - so the great majority of holders are under water, unless perhaps they have been topping up heavily at the lows.SOCO is still pretty near its lows, primarily because people are preferring other companies that they think have better growth prospects. They might be right, of course.....but I'd suggest that SOCO know what they are doing in VN at least.I've mostly taken the approach of doubling up on share price weakness when initial investments have been mistimed. It has served me pretty well, though I've been so overweight here for so long that there has been no topping up here! If I had no position here or even a modest one, I'd be topping up as long as I was happy with the oil price outlook.rgds

[cwa1] 24/3/2017 08:01

FWIW:-

24 Mar 17 Jefferies International Buy 161.00 195.00 195.00 Reiterates
24 Mar 17 Barclays Capital Equal weight 161.00 - - Upgrades

[keith95] 24/3/2017 07:23

"Trading via the rear view mirror is a mugs game."

I like this phrase.

[lauders] 24/3/2017 01:07

Thanks for your feedback to my post yesterday EE. After the results even I am "slightly positive" now but that doesn't mean it has been a good investment or will turn out to be one in future. Seems like the tone of the text was more upbeat & while kenobi may not like the dividend so much I for one LIKE it as I can reclaim a SMALL percentage of my original mistimed investment now. Still a long way to go here but the light at the end of the tunnel may just about be coming into view, around the next bend ;-)

[emptyend] 23/3/2017 14:37

kenobi,They aren't constrained to limit capex to available cash. They have significant borrowing capacity, given the producing assets - and arguably the current balance sheet is inefficient relative to others. A modest amount of debt would still look OK compared to TLW and PMO.That said, I'm sure they'll be pretty careful.....

[kenobi] 23/3/2017 12:57

I agree, there wasn't ever much doubt that SOCO would get paid,

there was doubt about when and exactly how much they'd get paid.

It's always better to have the cash rather than an iou.

To be honest I think it's shame they're paying a divi,
while nice, it does make you wonder if they couldn't use the money better,
but I guess they have comfortable reserves anyway,

I'm out at the mo, I'll read more thoroughly later,

there seems to be more action on marine ix than I'd thought, the unitisation thing seems to be taking a long time, I guess it's the low oil price that has stopped them just selling the block to the co next door.

K

[emptyend] 23/3/2017 10:54

...fyihttps://www.woodmac.com/reports/upstream-oil-and-gas-marine-xi-5484654

[emptyend] 23/3/2017 10:36

Peter,I think they have always been a bit vague about the potential of Lidongo etc - as you say, until they got the licence......I believe that your big OOIP figure for Litchendjili is correctly recalled, but I doubt that the Lidongo size comes close. In my mind it is a 50-70mn bbl resource, with some useful add-on potential from the other areas. I'd be delighted if it was bigger - but have seen nothing to suggest it is (other than the newly-mapped areal extent)OTOH I haven't seen the dataroom.....so who knows? You'd think that the analysts will be enquiring again and report the expected potential fairly accurately.rgds

[greyingsurfer] 23/3/2017 10:17

Interesting presentation. More detail on Marine XI than they've put in a presentation for a while - not surprising given that they now have a PEX and are looking at more.

But what caught my eye was the estimated scope of the Litchendjili extension. I seem to recall someone reporting - probably from one of the many AGMs I've not got to of late - that they were down playing the extent of the Litchendjili extension connection, or at least its size. Slide 11 seems to imply they still think a significant part of the field lies in the Lidongo PEX - as does the undeveloped PIM 1 discovery. Given I seem to remember talk of Litchendjili having up 1.2bn initially in place, and development underway, that PEX begins to look like a very interesting asset.

I would imagine the plan is to get the PEXs sorted and find someone with deep pockets to take it all, or most of it, on for development.

Peter

[cwa1] 23/3/2017 10:04

Apropos of next to nothing at all but I've made my first purchase of SOCO in what seems like aeons. I know that the Mongolian settlement should never have been in doubt but I DO worry about these type of things and DO like to see the cash nestling in the bank. The 5p special is also nice to see and hopefully a sign of similar ambitions to come. Solid cash balances too-very satisfactory. I also detected, for me at least, a hint of optimism and positivity going forward for the first time in a while-though that may well just be because I've been away from the "coalface" for quite some time and haven't been following it as closely as I once had.

All in all it persuaded me to rejoin the throng and see how things pan out. Good fortune all.