Soco Share Discussion Threads

[greyingsurfer] 20/9/2018 08:18

Looks a promising deal to me, and I think I'm happier with the political risk in Egypt - though it's clearly there.Drilling delays, and hence lowered production expectations for VN clearly a disappointment, and they seem to be still reviewing compressor options - hopefully that will move forward a bit more soon.Peter

[nigelpm] 20/9/2018 07:55

The key question is what you think the concession is worth - judging by what I've read over the past 45 mins $400m would have been too much but $215 is probably good value.

[emptyend] 20/9/2018 07:51

I note the claim in the article found by Nigel that the concession has "recoverable resources of 125-150 million barrels and had produced around 18 million barrels by the end of last year".It will be interesting to hear more about the development plans and the exploration upside, which appears to be significant and quite well-advanced re 3D etc. This is the sort of deal that gives immediate development opportunities and fills the gap before 125/6 can be progressed (in a success scenario there).Looks to be a good find, in an area of long-term interest for SOCO (note that Kuwait Energy also had assets in the Western Desert).

[nigelpm] 20/9/2018 07:46

Web conference call at 9:30am :

hxxp://arkadinemea-events.adobeconnect.com/ec1yjj8c4ic7/event/registration.html

[robs12] 20/9/2018 07:46

Hmmm.

So they were top bidder in an auction for Merlon, which nobody seemed overly keen on (nice link Nigelpm).

2018 production guidance fallen again within 3 months. From 7400-8200 at end July to 7000-7400 now.
As at 7th June it was 8000-9000.

No mention of the compressor issue.
No update on completion of the Cabinda 'deal', should be less than 10 days away.

Let's see what the market makes of it..!

[ny boy] 20/9/2018 07:37

Happy holding, will check back later next year on progress. Added some more yesterday, seems a tad cheap to say the least!

[emptyend] 20/9/2018 07:21

Interesting...........not Iraq, but Egypt.

[nigelpm] 19/9/2018 15:39

I also topped up - against my better judgement in terms of portfolio sizing but I was willing to make a special exception here. 85p is crackers.

[cwa1] 19/9/2018 15:16

I certainly hope it is a well timed call-but time will needed before that one is judged. Although I bought a respectable lump and I did put the trade through the order book, it's not one that will require an RNS-so not guilty on the trade sizing front :-)

Our paths have crossed in the past, yes.......

[emptyend] 19/9/2018 14:41

You'd expect me to say this, but I think that could be a well-timed call CWA1. There seemed to be some demand today.....I was showing Mrs ee something on the account this morning, using a dummy sell of 20,000 to demonstrate.....and to my surprise it could have been executed. Probably you....;-)You're the guy I met in Beckenham once IIRC.

[cwa1] 19/9/2018 14:22

Afternoon All

Been in and out of Soco a few times in the past. Out until just now when I picked up some at 85p. Based largely, on my entirely personal feeling, that it looks a bit down on its' luck and friendless at the moment, allied to the fact that there appears there's still some solid medium/longer term value locked up in it somewhere. Fingers crossed and all that stuff and good luck to all followers.

[emptyend] 19/9/2018 13:21

kenobi, Re compression my AGM notes are that it is a potential 1,500bopd issue.....so fairly material. I doubt it will have been sorted yet though as it probably needed the FPSO contract to be extended first - and there may be a lead time issue?

[buywell3] 19/9/2018 12:15

One of my early posts here, and remember all those SIA buybacks at around 150p


buywell3 - 06 Aug 2015 - 09:40:16 - 15569 of 21548 SOCO - The Endgame - SIA
Surely now is not the time to be an OIL bull ?


The SOCO chart is now retesting its former low


Cash will have to be protected going forwards


Talk of giving it away does not seem to make sense as the USA shale OIL continues to hit home and Iran OIL is soon set to flow bigtime

Iran will still be major sellers even if it goes down to $30


Hence my SOCO dividend remarks .... I think they will have to stop paying them.

OIL money will soon be too tight to mention ....... by most that is

[nigelpm] 19/9/2018 11:47

This and OPHR are driving me mad if truth be told but could easily see both doubling over the next 6 months.

[kenobi] 19/9/2018 11:38

The market doesn't seem to share our confidence unfortunately,

K

[kenobi] 19/9/2018 11:18

I agree Nigel, I'm not interested in divis, if the money is needed for deals/future capex,

EE I hope so, looking forward to hearing more hopefully soon, definitely the compressor situation should be their top operational issue, however, I suspect that it's not really going to make a big difference to production, every little helps,

K

[nigelpm] 19/9/2018 11:06

No logic in paying a dividend when cash likely to be required for a deal and further capex in future.

[emptyend] 19/9/2018 10:46

kenobi,I can guarantee you that (whatever the first deal is) it will be a development project first and foremost. Cashflow and upside were confirmed at the AGM as key deal requirements. Switching to the interims, I'd hope to have an update on the compressor situation....and a year-end forecast rate for production. I also wonder about an interim dividend - though that may depend on deal plans. Perhaps not this year?

[dunderheed] 19/9/2018 10:35

Greenland then Kenobi - that was an excellent investment for Cairn (did 'someone' think they had discovered some form of golden touch when all the drilling and G&G was indicating total indifference lol!).
Some may say an Ophir like waste of money?
All imho of course.

[kenobi] 19/9/2018 10:31

I guess now there is transaction risk, what are they going to do with the money ? will it be spent wisely and create more value or will it be value destructive ?

For me I have suggested to management for many years that we should be investing in assets which have been proved up, but need capital, and have potential up side, SOCO as proved very good at bringing this sort of asset to production, I feel they could really add value.

obviously there is more upside in buying explo acreage and discovering oil, but that only works IF there is oil there.

[dunderheed] 19/9/2018 09:48

The 'capacity required' surely depends upon the size of the deal - of which 'we' have no idea at all?

[emptyend] 19/9/2018 09:45

Capacity was never in doubt, Nigel.

[nigelpm] 19/9/2018 09:32

I take your point ee but would suggest it's significantly better in terms of getting a decent price to have a debt deal in place in advance of detailed discussions.

[nigelpm] 19/9/2018 09:20

I'm less convinced on that point actually but we'll see.

What I don't need to be convinced about however is that the levels (80's) signal the final throws of the selling - it just needs a catalyst to get going again.