Soco Share Discussion Threads

[emptyend] 19/9/2018 07:41

Chances pretty good IMO. Syndicated debt deals on a club basis are predictable in terms of timing - so I'd say signing a debt deal (that they don't need at all without a corporate deal) at this time is a strong leading indicator of near term action.Perhaps it is a coincidence that it is just before the results, but I doubt it.

[lauders] 19/9/2018 01:48

nigelpm 18 Sep '18 - 08:14 - 21529 of 21534 0   6  0

Blimey! People are going to pick up any old trash to try and ramp by suggesting Soco might buy them. lol ;-)

LOL indeed nigel! I did notice the wink too but there were only two suggestions including mine and while I have no idea about i3 Energy I don't believe SDX are "trash" and if I were to "ramp" them I would surely have to hold which I don't. Used to as stated, but not at present.

Seems Malcy (not exactly the best person to follow I would agree) thinks something may be in the pipeline too:

Soco has announced that it has added a new $125m RBL facility secured against its Vietnam producing assets with another uncommitted $125m on an accordion basis. Whilst this is pretty run of the mill financing it would be nice to think that Jann and Mike may be closing in on a deal of some sort…..



We can all hope, but given SIA's track record (lack of one!) we may be waiting a while. Thursday would be wonderful as long as the news is something that makes the market sit-up and pay attention. What are the chances?

[emptyend] 18/9/2018 21:20

You are right on the licences being a year shorter. But Africa was always set to go cheaply, although the royalty earn-out on Marine XI is capable of delivering useful revenue in due course.But nothing else has changed - which is my point. Hope value in relation to various aspects has collapsed completely (rightly or wrongly*) - but the actual fundamentals are unchanged, save for the passage of time.* wrongly, IMO.

[runningbull] 18/9/2018 20:44

Well I guess the licences are a year shorter, Africa has gone for buttons, any pretence that that production will increase has disappeared, so much for the transformational water handling, now there’s the compressor issue but we knew all along it wouldn’t be transformational so now we are all focused on 125/126 and deals. We all know we have missed the boat on the best deals, surely that was a couple of years ago. Anyway hope I am wrong, let’s see what the management have in store on Thursday. We haven’t had much to cheer about lately.

[emptyend] 18/9/2018 19:49

....so what has changed for the worse since, say, a year ago? Sure they haven't yet done a deal....but what has changed for the worse?IMO it is pure sentiment (& boredom)

[pumph] 18/9/2018 18:10

Whatever is announced on Thursday had better be of serious value because the company’s value is tanking, despite the sustained oil price environment...

Hard to be at all optimistic.

[nigelpm] 18/9/2018 08:14

Blimey! People are going to pick up any old trash to try and ramp by suggesting Soco might buy them. lol ;-)

[robs12] 18/9/2018 08:07

i3E JV signing delayed. That would certainly fit the MO !! ;-)

[lauders] 18/9/2018 02:45

Given mention of Egypt before I was wondering whether anything re: SDX Energy may be considered. Seems like SDX are a company that looks promising and I used to hold shares in them. Not sure of the possibility or whether I am way off the mark! Would be an interesting combination!

[emptyend] 17/9/2018 17:29

Highly unlikely to be i3e I think. I'd rule nothing out, but wouldn't give it more than a 5% chance (though N Sea isn't exactly unfamiliar). I'd guess KE's Iraq assets are more like 50%+.....Results out this Thursday - which would fit with a deal being done, given today's news (IMO)

[duckdown] 17/9/2018 17:17

Could be a very good deal for both parties if true - Liberator is a fantastic asset with huge upside potential, a quick route to first oil and a low breakeven cost.

I'm sure all will be revealed very soon.

[showme01] 17/9/2018 16:48

I believe i3e and their JV partner will prove up the reserves and daily production and then look to sell it in either late 2019 or 2020. Could be a quick win for both parties. The key for i3e is an industrial partner that has the funds.

[richalert] 17/9/2018 16:28

Well,
That would be a big switch from their normal asset portfolio, but I suppose with new management, that is all part of the territory. I wonder how much management activity, Ed Storey is involved in these days. Obviously he will still have a big say.

[showme01] 17/9/2018 16:18

i3 energy are in a 90 day exclusive period due to end next Monday with an industrial JV partner to drill their Liberator asset in the North Sea. $200m required for 3 drills and JV partner will get 33% of the asset as well as funds repaid. The 33% could be worth 6-8,000 bopd to the JV partner. Cost of extraction approx. $25 so plenty of profit to be made. I hold i3e and Soco has cropped up on private twitter group chat as a possible suitor after todays news.

[dunderheed] 17/9/2018 12:55

The mystery for me is, weren't these "bd high flyers" given up to $500 MM in some investment vehicle about a year or two ago which came to nothing (I think) so, why come to sia if you've got a piggy bank with $500 MM in it - at that time - there was some really good BD bargains out there which don't seem to the case now?
So why wasn't that venture successful - when things were a lot 'easier' to progress?

Could be an old man's memory of course but don't think it came to anything?
Does anyone know more about that as am genuinely interested?

All imho and as ever dyor of course.

[asagi] 17/9/2018 12:55

> Are we now in the endgame for SOCO ?

doesn't look like it. I read the RNS as it is, that management plans to make long term investments in the portfolio, not divest or call it a day.

Asagi (long SIA)

[buywell3] 17/9/2018 12:46

Are we now in the endgame for SOCO ?

[pumph] 17/9/2018 12:02

Hopefully it’s not earmarked for Greenland.

[emptyend] 17/9/2018 11:58

HA....they get $6.50-$7.50 per boe on their three fields. But they have very recently been pressed hard to develop the Mansuriya field to the north.....indeed it seems they will lose the licence if they don't get on with it! The aim there is to ramp production up to 100mscfd in months.....https://www.pipelineoilandgasnews.com/regionalinternational-news/regional-news/2018/august/iraq-makes-new-plans-to-develop-mansuriya-gas-field/I'd suggest that not many companies would have the uncommitted capacity to do that......

[dunderheed] 17/9/2018 11:50

Because there is an awful lot of political risk and normally such contracts rest in a balanced portfolio of assets and not the main 'income' producer?
What are they 'earning' per bbl produced? When I was doing something in Iraq years ago the 'best' (I.e. in most 'dangerous' (quite fluid though!) areas coincidentally around some of Kuwait assets) per bbl produced was around $10 I think?
Since then I believe some were negotiated upwards - but at the end of the day what's the real 'exploration' upside - there may be some incentive for EOR uplifts but I doubt it?
The Kurdi (profir /cost oil split) PSC's are (possibly) good to procure but I aint so sure about the more 'service type' PSC's?
All imho of course.

[haideralifool] 17/9/2018 11:14

D

If Soco can use their good standing in the markets to borrow money at x% and then get a service contracts yielding x%+, what's the problem?

If the seller is distressed and we get it for a good price, even better.

[dunderheed] 17/9/2018 10:43

Kuwait company are in debt and need to re negotiate so get rid of Iraq - relatively 'common' knowledge for some time?
Again afaiaa, these are service contract (i.e. per bbl NOT profit oil bbl) deals but could be wrong? Not sure about the gas though?
Unless good price I'd be looking elsewhere as these assets have been up for 'negotiations' for some time?
All imho and dyor of course.

[kenobi] 17/9/2018 10:29

They did mention at the agm that areas they were interested in included Iraq and Egypt, perhaps having not done a merger deal with kuwait some of those assets might be available?

K

[dunderheed] 17/9/2018 08:14

I'd be disappointed with that.
Too much political risk for 'main asset'.
Also aren't they 'effectively' service fee contracts per bbl produced as opposed to PSC profit oil bbl contracts?
Thought that was the case?