Soco Share Discussion Threads

[stepone68] 08/8/2018 11:00

But also 6 less months remaining on the licenses (down 5%?).

[emptyend] 08/8/2018 10:45

At the start of February, the share price was around 115p - and the GBP/USD rate was 1.43.......equivalent to $1.64 per share. Now the share price is 96p and the GBP/USD rate is 1.29......equivalent to $1.24 per share.So.....for USD-based investors......the shares are 25% cheaper. Back at the start of February, the oil price was $70. Now it is over $74.Back in February, the most recent (Jan) guidance on 2018 production was 8,000-9,000 boepd (vs an outturn of 8,276 in 2017). Currently (thanks largely to drilling delays) 2018 guidance is 7,400-8,200 boepd.So (remembering that the company is a USD-earner):- shares down 25% in USD terms- production guidance down c.7%- oil price up 6%- African assets off the books- H1 revenues of over $93mn....so say, prospectively, $182mn for the year (which would be 17% more than 2017, despite the lower production).- Historic yield of 5.5%; 2018 profits likely to be c. $27mn (should get better steer on 20/9 with interim results), with scope to raise dividend further out of cashflow...........if I was a USD based investor (or bidder), I'd think that looks quite cheap.

[emptyend] 06/8/2018 08:26

...yes ....all correct, Steve. The capital cost was a factor at the outset and I believe that Talisman paid part of it in order to secure access.

[steve73] 06/8/2018 08:00

The original lease would almost certainly have included a large chunk to pay in full the capital cost of the FPSO (unless this was paid separately - I can't recall), as well as the ongoing OPEX (and some profit for Bumi).

With the actual cost of the FPSO now fully paid, the contract extension just needs to cover ongoing OPEX (which will probably be a little higher than before since there's likely to be more maintenance required, etc), plus a profit to Bumi. In addition Bumi lose the ability to redeploy this FPSO elsewhere, and will need to cover this "cost".

But unless the JOC can maintain (or preferably increase) production rates, the $/bbl cost will continue to increase.

All credit to the subsurface teams for ensuring the production can be maintained beyond the original expected term...

[emptyend] 06/8/2018 07:41

I think the previous contract amount is published on the internet but, without knowing all the terms, one can't work out the bottom line impact.

[yasrub] 06/8/2018 07:20

The reference to lower lease rate which equates to $47.5m per year over the 6 yr contract do we know what kind of saving this is ?

[emptyend] 06/8/2018 07:06

Shame to see no further details. Perhaps a matter of politics or protocols re the JOC (as it is their contract), but clarifications would be welcome re compressor work and the arrangements for capacity-sharing (if any)

[emptyend] 04/8/2018 13:06

....ps...sorry 6+ years (distracted by the cricket....)

[emptyend] 04/8/2018 13:00

....forgot link.....http://www.upstreamonline.com/live/1548398/vietnam-extension-for-bumi-armada

[emptyend] 04/8/2018 13:00

FPSO extension signed, apparently on Friday - so RNS Monday. Looks like a 5+ year deal with some form of option element (nb comment re "firm")......What will be interesting is which aspects SOCO focus on. I'll be interested in comments re production capacity (re the adjacent block) and obviously I'll be expecting some comment about the compressor remediation work.

[buywell3] 03/8/2018 14:17

empty words

Sub a quid and dropping further chartwsise if OIL drops further

[emptyend] 03/8/2018 07:53

I would be following a simpler approach.....look at the revenue change, adjust for any capex differences, and assume profits and cash change pro-rata.

[eggbaconandbubble] 03/8/2018 07:25

I think it's fair to say that after a discussion with a board member several years ago I formed the opinion that one poster on this bb was somehow connected to the company.

[eggbaconandbubble] 03/8/2018 07:15

Jotoha, I couldn't agree more!

[general george] 02/8/2018 21:55

Sure production cost circa $15pb.

Would expect cash to be much higher.

I expect maybe the revenue has been declared but cash not yet in the bank.

I hope thats the case!

[emptyend] 02/8/2018 21:44

...and ps....the revenue number is gross, before operating costs

[emptyend] 02/8/2018 21:43

Primarily the capex costs, but cash is just cash and there may be timing impacts from lifting of cargoes, tax payments or whatever.

[general george] 02/8/2018 21:35

Can anyone explain...

2017 YE cash was $137.5m

End June 2018 was only $130m?

Revenue was $93 for this period.
Plus 23m paid out dividend.

Shouldn't Soco cash be much higher?

What have I missed?

[ronwilkes123] 02/8/2018 12:47

Johoto is your description about Soco or aminex

[greyingsurfer] 02/8/2018 12:34

Jotoha, this is a bb not a news site or magazine. There is no editor!

[ronwilkes123] 02/8/2018 12:30

Soco could be worse it could be aminex and have it’s current woes Robs

[jotoha2] 02/8/2018 12:08

Egg bacon, clearly the editor here is either in love with this company or he is being paid to slant his views , as far as I can see he is misguided in his views , okay there have been periods in the past when this company made PI some money , but not for the last 4 years , and he has never acknowledged that the company now is in a mess , it's value is falling month on month , and will continue down this road , am told by city insiders that they see the management as inept !

[wdkeyes] 01/8/2018 22:28

I would like to thank you Emptyend, for your contributions over the years. They were and are much appreciated.

[emptyend] 31/7/2018 22:06

Again all very fair points. I'm not bothered about opportunity costs etc - they are unknowables. Many times I've taken the view that I would just have reinvested in other O&G companies, so the sector weakness of recent years is kind of irrelevant. My ONLY concern is that SOCO should generally outperform the sector.....and it has done that for the vast majority of the time I've been invested. But that does not apply to the last 18 months - and that is certainly a concern.rgds