Smith (ds) Share Discussion Threads

[moorsie2] 04/4/2024 07:20

Smds board flirting with all the girls

[peart] 04/4/2024 06:49

Agreed Laurence. Either that or simply choosing to not expose their hand, thus forcing IP to consider paying more, as if Mondi walk away they don't want a competitor to get a great deal, they would want that competitor to pay more, as in they keep negotiating and force IP'S hand to put in a knock out bid, then they walk away. (thus weakening a competitor who has had to pay over the odds for an asset...)
All in the chances of a higher bid have just gone up imho.

[laurence llewelyn binliner] 04/4/2024 06:06

Mondi deadline extended to 23rd to allow for continued discussions, so reading between the lines, more time to increase their offer in the light of the IP bid..?

[dexdringle] 01/4/2024 09:33

As a Mondi shareholder, I'm really hoping they get off the pot...

[moorsie2] 01/4/2024 08:30

Let's see what Thursday by 5pm brings.... Sh1t or get off the pot time for Mondi

[anhar] 31/3/2024 13:02

MC: ...My wife suggested that when I sell I no longer check SMDS share price but I said by doing that I fail to learn from the experience...

I agree with your wife, never look back in this situation, you'll learn nothing or even something misleading because as Binliner says, there's no right or wrong here with either an early sale of SMDS or hanging on for a higher price. More a question of your risk appetite, the "bird in the hand" argument.

Having been here many times in an all share bid where I don't want the bidder's paper, the only thing I've learned is as I said, there's no hurry so I always hang on for a while in case a higher bid arrives. If it doesn't you probably haven't lost anything by selling a bit later, particularly with an agreed bid where failure to complete is very unlikely.

[laurence llewelyn binliner] 30/3/2024 14:43

#MCunliffe1, stopping a 30% WHT inside an ISA from US income is a no-go for me, I have been there and spent 2 years looking for workarounds arguing with Smart Investor on this point, the only way you can recover it is to get a tax document from your provider then declare the dividends on your self assessment and get a credit against taxes paid which I will be trying to do next month..

It is a PITA to have to do it inside an ISA wrapper which the US do not recognise, I was only 2/10 years into my holding here and try to keep things as simple as I can now, that said I took 121 pence per share out on a total return measure which helped ease the pain.. :o)

We will see if MNDI want it more than IP soon enough..

[mcunliffe1] 30/3/2024 14:25

If IP end up paying the div there may be a withholding tax applied. My research tells me 15% of any such tax can be reclaimed through HMRC as we have an agreement with the US on double-taxation.

However, people on this (or maybe the TAX) thread have indicated some platforms/banks/brokers withhold 30%.

I'm disinclined to come back in if IP are running the show.

[laurence llewelyn binliner] 30/3/2024 14:14

#Dreckley, I also kept my DLG, the turnaround story is in progress with the new CEO, first 4 pence dividend is a bit miserly, but it will help shore up the companies finances with retained earnings, a slow burner there for 2024/2025 IMO..

Next SMDS update is the pre-close statement end of April then the FY2023/24 in June followed by the next XD Sept/Oct unless that gets substituted by a MNDI/IP dividend instead, plenty of time to come back in if it looks appetising nearer the time..

[drectly] 30/3/2024 13:11

I do have ABDN, bought with pension 25% tax free, together with SMDS,DLG,ASHM, SHEL, LGEN and ADM. ABDN has kept paying the divi OK, but taken a bit of a hit on the share price. I will resisit any more, but agree a goood potential entry for anyone who wants a good yield with a chance of a take over thrown in (and happy to risk further fall in share price).

[mcunliffe1] 30/3/2024 11:11

drectly:
You may consider ABDN (Abrdn) as a break-up candidate or even a take-over possible.
Their share price is dire just now. Unfortunately, so is the management.

I hold Abrdn shares from their floatation and have invested small amounts of same in the g'kids investment trusts (in loss).

Not recommending. Just pointing as a possible.

[drectly] 30/3/2024 10:54

I kept DLG as I thought the bid might increase, reacted by selling most SMDS after the Mondi approach. Two wrongs do not always make a right. That said, if we have stuff that is a focus for take overs we are not investing in the worst place. As ever, the question, where next to put the cash. I have gone more LGEN for safe ish good income, but that is very unlikely to give a take over bonus, but might get a re-rating when rates come down, if it can keep increasing the divi.

[laurence llewelyn binliner] 30/3/2024 10:41

No right or wrong decisions here, just a matter of risk appetite..

I lucked out on 30 pence per share with the recent DLG bid from AGS, they walked away and so did my paper profits, that aint happening twice in 2 weeks.. ;o)

See what MNDI do after the 4th when their deadline closes, it will be new ISA day soon after (8th) so ex-holders can always revisit here..

[mcunliffe1] 30/3/2024 09:19

Well, your two posts put a smile on my face this morning yump and jeffian. So, I'm not alone in the 'wife' arena.

yump: your suggestion has merit. I've made a note in the files and will revisit in future.

[jeffian] 29/3/2024 22:52

Wives. My wife looks over my shoulder at the graph of some share we hold, points at the peak, and says "I would have sold there".

[yump] 29/3/2024 18:14

“My wife suggested that when I sell I no longer check SMDS share price but I said by doing that I fail to learn from the experience.”

That’s a tricky one! Very difficult not to rationalise a decision when things get better or worse. I suppose the discipline is probably to write down why you bought or sold and then see whether you missed anything obvious. Otherwise you can trick yourself into being right or wrong, for the wrong reasons. Confused?: you will be…

[mcunliffe1] 29/3/2024 12:24

anhar: I really do hope for your sake and the other holders that the share price does indeed rise further.

This will not cause me any concern having sold. My wife suggested that when I sell I no longer check SMDS share price but I said by doing that I fail to learn from the experience.

I accept you have greater experience in these matters; I might have been more tempted to hold had you posted early yesterday :-)

Time will tell, as ever.

[anhar] 29/3/2024 11:31

I think it's probably too early to sell in the market. I recall thinking the same when only the potential MNDI bid was on the table and I felt there was no hurry, having been in this situation repeatedly over the decades as an income investor. Not because I knew that a competing higher bid was coming, but because there's never any rush to act in bid situations when you're holding the target shares.

I don't want Mondi or IP shares in my income port so assuming a bid becomes certain, I will definitely sell out at some stage to reinvest in other HY shares, but imo the bidding war may well drive the price even higher. No guarantees but that's my present view and I appreciate that I'm taking a risk by continuing to hold. I think it unlikely, though not of course impossible, that both bids will fail.

[ygor705] 28/3/2024 19:40

Interesting article in The Times this morning suggesting that IP really needs to do a deal if it wants to retain its position in an increasingly consolidated market. We may be getting into CEO animal instinct territory here. My gut feeling is that there's a big value pot to be had here for whoever has the guts to fight for it.

[kirkie001] 28/3/2024 13:26

I sold out 50% and will likely let the rest ride until the endgame. Looks like a c60% capital gain over 10ish years of holding, with another 53% in dividends - all in an ISA - so quite happy with that, although I guess it took 10 years to achieve.....

[blackhorse23] 28/3/2024 13:12

Out from here & bought GNC

[mcunliffe1] 28/3/2024 12:52

I sold out at midday. £3.95722.

I originally bought into SMDS on 22 May 2023 at £3.16369 and with the two div's I've made a 25% return. I'm quite happy with that.

Should the IP bid fail and, should the Mondi fail or falter and the share price drops I may rebuy for the same reason. A dividend. But ONLY if the entity remains on the London exchange and pays div's in £.

[laurence llewelyn binliner] 28/3/2024 12:05

If IP value the company at 415 pence, and Mondi 373 pence, 395 is the mid point while the deal(s) either pan out or fall over, to go risk off and watch from the sidelines for a week or 3 looks a sensible strategy with Easter next, a bird in the hand etc etc, a bigger downside IMO if talks hit any hurdles so safer to lock in profits today and come back if either party move to a confirmed offer after the 4th April deadline for MNDI..

Coupled to the potential for a US WHT of 30% on ISA income or dividends in EUR and subject to an FX swap helped the decision..

GLA holders while it unfolds..

[tnt99] 28/3/2024 11:02

Shares true value 6 pounds getting a steal here whoever wins

[peart] 27/3/2024 20:23

Interesting again Laurence, it doesn't surprise me with Barclays Stockbrokers. They increased their prices back in 2019 and seem to have gone off the boil to me. It doesn't surprise me that they withhold 30% for some reason. Just sounds like a poor platform now, as if they're not really interested, as it is possible for them to sort this for their customers - odd way to go on and unbusinesslike.