Smith (ds) Share Discussion Threads

[moorsie2] 22/2/2024 07:44

No mention by Mondi today - guess the next focus is DS Smith results day on 6th March, a day before the deadline for put up or shut up...

[upsondowns] 21/2/2024 11:27

Was meant to say higher lows

[moorsie2] 21/2/2024 10:20

pure guessing game at this stage...

[laurence llewelyn binliner] 21/2/2024 09:47

Mondi have until March 07th to confirm or deny their interest in SMDS and put forward a bid (or not), perhaps they will add in a post period note on their intentions tomorrow, but I am not confident they will.. ;o)

[upsondowns] 21/2/2024 09:47

Not really a sell off now is it? Just a natural trading pattern if you ask me. Lower lows and higher highs. Might see a bounce from here.

[sun1950] 21/2/2024 09:30

My guess would be the lack of an update but that might change tomorrow when Mondi announce results or alternatively talks are not going well just a thought

[moorsie2] 21/2/2024 08:50

hmmmm wonder if a sell off is happening ... do some people have news?

[moorsie2] 19/2/2024 11:38

Looks like more bets are being placed on a tie up happening...

Big few days ahead

[alotto] 16/2/2024 09:16

I think Barclays is hinting that Mondi may offer 420p.

[moorsie2] 16/2/2024 07:36

And good retail numbers for January should provide some confidence in this sector

[bigbigdave] 16/2/2024 07:23

BARCLAYS RAISES DS SMITH PRICE TARGET TO 420 (360) PENCE - 'OVERWEIGHT'

[meanreverter] 15/2/2024 13:08

Sun1950:

Your guess looks about right to me. I don't think that SMDS holders would be happy with a deal resulting in a meaningfully lower dividend. Based on 2023 payouts, a 2-for-7 offer would cut the dividend per SMDS share by only a smidgeon: from 18p to 17.89p.

As for my own modest holding in SMDS, I would refuse 1 for 4, think about 2 for 7, and accept 3 for 10.

[upsondowns] 15/2/2024 12:45

Mondi share price picking up a bit today. Their results will be interesting

[moorsie2] 15/2/2024 10:25

This day next week is the Mondi annual results.... So guess we will know within a week

[sun1950] 15/2/2024 10:09

My guess is 2 mondi for every 7 DSS if it was 1 for 3 that would be over the top and 1 for 4 wouldn’t be voted through by shareholders just a thought

[buyzantium] 15/2/2024 10:09

Quietly confident this will go through this time so the gorilla glue already applied.

[moorsie2] 15/2/2024 09:03

Time to stick or twist now for holders.

Take 316 by selling or hold knowing it if does not happen we could be back in the 270s and if it does happen we would be in the high 390s

[moorsie2] 13/2/2024 15:23

Elsa,

The cash distribution from the Russian sale I believe was considered essential to clean the portfolio and allow for like for like comparison.

Davy are modelling that a combined Mondi Smith will only have 1.5 times debt to ebitda profile

[elsa7878] 13/2/2024 14:32

"That number gives credence to Moorsie’s view of both the valuation range and that this offer has been a long time in the planning."

I'm not so sure. If it was then why did Mondi recently agree to a large shareholder distribution when there is a concern that they might be taking on too much debt from SMDS (£2 billion v £1.2 billion of their own)....

[anhar] 13/2/2024 13:27

I hold SMDS only for the divis as I'm purely an income investor, know little about this industry and don't want to, same with all my holdings. Thinking outside the box you could say, not wanting to get in too close. So it's in the long term hold income port as part of the wide diversification strategy I follow, not because I'm enamoured with packaging.

Have held for a while and even with the possible bid now in the price, it's still slightly below cost, not that I care much about prices. All about the divis for me, share prices matter little in my approach.

[moorsie2] 13/2/2024 12:51

Davy atockbrokers see the sweet spot as 400p per share for SMDS

They write that major shareholders on both companies see the compelling logic and need to do this deal

[ygor705] 13/2/2024 12:20

Some very good and informative posts on here over the past week or so. Like Jeffian, I only hold DSS because of PE and divi but I have a much bigger holding in Smurfit Kappa. I also believe that DSS is definitely in play and given that SK merged last year and was also the subject of an offer from one of the big US names some years before, the direction of flight in the sector looks reasonably clear. In my day, the received wisdom in the merchant banking sector was that starting bid premiums should be around the 25% level. DSS was around 280p when all of these shenanigans kicked off which gives an opening bid level of about 350p equivalent on that basis. That number gives credence to Moorsie's view of both the valuation range and that this offer has been a long time in the planning. We are perhaps safer than we think at current levels ie there might be more to come before the offer is formally announced.

[laurence llewelyn binliner] 13/2/2024 10:06

#Moorsie2, Mondi has until 7 March 2024 to either formalise this offer or withdraw, following UK acquisition regulations..

[moorsie2] 12/2/2024 17:00

Reality is, I do not see any other option for both set of shareholders than getting together here.

If they fail to do this deal then the outlook for the companies and share value is poor.

My bet is 400 is the full and fair value here and for those share holders who think they are giving up the cycle upside then they can remain holders of the new entity.

I would be extremely positive on the outlook if they came together. Mondi have the best mill assets and Smiths are the best box sellers