Share Name Share Symbol Market Type Share ISIN Share Description
Smith (ds) Plc LSE:SMDS London Ordinary Share GB0008220112 ORD 10P
  Price Change % Change Share Price Shares Traded Last Trade
  -8.80 -2.03% 424.10 3,045,129 16:35:26
Bid Price Offer Price High Price Low Price Open Price
425.40 425.60 435.60 420.60 435.60
Industry Sector Turnover (m) Profit (m) EPS - Basic PE Ratio Market Cap (m)
General Industrials 5,976.00 231.00 14.20 29.9 5,820
Last Trade Time Trade Type Trade Size Trade Price Currency
16:49:51 O 2,811 424.10 GBX

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Date Time Title Posts
16/9/202113:46Smith (DS) PLC with Charts and News3,951
11/7/201820:15DS Smith - Smudger's on the rise71
03/11/200917:24Whats Happening !!!!!141
23/4/200918:51DS Smith - must be a sell.182
12/2/200215:21SMITH(DS)- whats up? something is cooking?18

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Smith (ds) Daily Update: Smith (ds) Plc is listed in the General Industrials sector of the London Stock Exchange with ticker SMDS. The last closing price for Smith (ds) was 432.90p.
Smith (ds) Plc has a 4 week average price of 420.60p and a 12 week average price of 403.40p.
The 1 year high share price is 465.70p while the 1 year low share price is currently 270.70p.
There are currently 1,372,412,313 shares in issue and the average daily traded volume is 3,360,003 shares. The market capitalisation of Smith (ds) Plc is £5,847,848,865.69.
buyzantium: I agree with Tnt99. My reading of the charts of a 3 year, 1year and 3 month periods in my opinion all exhibit a strong possibility that the share price will rise to at least 550 in the next 18 months. The most recent indication has been the breakout from a classic inverse head and shoulders pattern at the 430 level. Also over the past few days strong support is being seen at present levels. With the rumour of a bid for the Company still a possibility I remain a strong holder and buyer on weakness having done so at 384, 404 and most recently at 435.
marktime1231: Wow ... JP Morgan Cazenove out with a broker note today saying Buy and upping its target price to 557p. A spuriously precise figure and strangely out of step with the consensus of other forecasts. And then you read that Caz are the house broker. They are paid to flog it. Ignore. I suppose it gives you hope if you need some, but I would love to test and challenge their analysis. All based on H2 being marginally better than H1 even though both were barely profitable, or that management is hopeful it can try and raise prices to keep up with rising costs? Even more infuriating is Pell Hunt yesterday saying Add with a price target of 330p when the share price is already 420p. Like the weather girl saying it is fine when you can see rain through the window. Aaaaaaaaaaaaagh! Anyway I am out so not my concern now.
marktime1231: I was expecting to be disappointed but a 37% slump in pre-tax profits is terrible, in a year when demand for packaging has been at times exceptional. Not convinced it can be explained by covid, we have never needed so many boxes. Here is the rub ... "... higher costs and lower prices ..." The report is very difficult to unpick for the real reasons why things are so bad, everything described in a mixture of positives and negatives which fogs the brain. Management cherry-picking three or four numbers which look reasonable against a miserable overall performance, and ... same as last year, and the year before ... saying things have started well and look promising despite this that and the other. No wonder they did not reinstate 2020's dividends, all the benefit of the dribble of (they say excellent) cash flow has gone to debt reduction which is still above a 2.0 x ebidta target and which still represents an uncomfortable level of debt unless your revenues and profits are increasing. Which they are not. Should we question the price of the recent acquisitions and whether they are paying off, and how has it managed to get into such an ugly financial mess, does this all sound a bit like Carillion all over again? Not much point since that is now history. SMDS balance sheet still dominated by billions of intangible assets, a bit like Carillion. It is again manipulating year end cash position (Receivables £819M + Cash £813M versus Payables £1,849M) either by accelerating receipts or delaying bill payments at year end or using invoicing tricks like Carillion used to do. So, you could argue cash is really negative, and that the Net Debt position should be showing much worse than the declared -£1,795M. Note that £235M of borrowings are repayable in the current year. The reconciliation between making a profit for the year of £182M, and declaring free cash flow of £486M or net cash flow of £366M after dividends (there were none paid during the year), and reducing net debt by £306M needs someone brighter than me to unpick. But my feeling is that SMDS is in a fundamental balance sheet mess, no wonder they have been conducting going concern tests against whether they might breach loan covenants, and no wonder they are being speculated about as a takeover target. At the current rate of business performance I don't see how SMDS can repay debts due and pay dividends, not without a disposal or a major refinancing anyway. I will say that again. SMDS is not bust but from cash flow at this rate it cannot obviously afford its pending debt repayments and also pay a dividend this year. And yet it just breezily announced a final dividend to follow the interim, the sort of thing Carillion used to do. Eeeek! The reason SMDS did not pay any dividend last year is because it could not afford to. The (only) reason it could pay a dividend the year before was because of cash from the disposal of Plastics. It is not making enough money to repay its bankers and pay the handsome dividends we shareholders are used to. The question must be how can SMDS turn themselves in to a success story. Contrast these results and SKG which has twice the margin and managed to increase net profit through FY20 despite covid reducing volumes slightly. My conclusion is that SMDS is being out-competed in a market where there is too much competition, it is being squeezed and cannot raise prices to combat rising costs without fear of losing more business. It is at the mercy of its bankers. For those reasons I have sold up the speculative stake I took in my income ISA earlier this year when the prospects were for a renewed steady income. I have banked a little gain. And I am feeling much happier, even if the chances of this turning in to another Carillion are remote it would be awful to make the same mistake with eyes wide open. Good luck to those of you holding on for a miraculous turnaround in performance or for a suitor.
marksp2011: Buyzantium price charts are based on past values of a single variable and cannot forecast a turning point. Driving a car by looking in the rear view mirror. They DO work sometimes......if enough people believe that the chart is forecasting a rise then, the share price will rise. It is a self fulfilling prophesy. If we all think SMDS will double so buy, buy, buy, it will double or triple etc.....and then we call ourselves momentum traders. I don't see the benefit of chartists who claim they can see 1,2,3 waves - The muppet who drew a line on the LLOY chart and forecast 7p..... (i couldn't work out why he forecast 7p, the line I drew hit 0) I bought at 29.9 - I could be waiting a long time for 7p There is no empirical evidence that supports Elliott Waves. None. There is a lot of evidence that supports the idea that on less liquid stocks enough people trading can create a wave pattern. I still think SMDS was a mistake as an investment and I will probably offload on 9th ready for the monthly reinvestment run at AJB. i will split the money from my 2k over some of my fav investment trusts
marksp2011: marktime - Thanks for the comment - I appreciate it. Comparing choices against VWRL is fairly shocking especially if the viewer has suffered from home bias and digging around in the UK markets. I have 2000 SMDS that are in good profit, I have been in and out over the years but, fundamentally the industry hasn't been able to turn the story into cash. SMDS has the added drag of a pretty poor management team I chart things (why I posted that in the first place)...... stock price v a sector ETF where I can find one v VWRL v Fundsmith Equity. In the main, not wishing to single out SMDS the answer is pretty obvious for most stocks i am holding 50K LLOY shares I bought those from 29-32p so LLoyds is a great stock... 70-80p looks easy over the next 12 months. As an investment, at current price the 5 year return is MINUS 3.3% Fundsmith is PLUS 18% so 22% difference each and every year for the last 5 years. On a 10 year view, LLOY is about 2% and Fsmith is 17.8% What I have drawn from this.......... Trade if you want but think carefully about what you are holding for the long term. be really honest with yourself about your own stock picking skills - i run my own pension - the core holdings have had one change in nearly 3 years and I am beating VWRL. No skill required, no trading, no timing and much less volatility. But not as much fun. i am moving to 90% in the long term never touch and 10% on relatively low leverage CFDs where I can trade in/out with ease and get my adrenalin fix.
dssmith51: I agree there needs to be some consolidation, resulting in fewer suppliers. SMDS in the past has overpaid when agreeing a “takeover̶1; which has over the period depressed the share price. I’d like to think SMDS is primed to be bought out. Will that happen? Maybe!
marktime1231: That is really impressive marksp, a candidate for post of the year. It is also a devastating criticism, not just of SMDS but of the whole packaging industry which has been unable to deliver 20% annualised returns during a period where a dominant developed-world theme has been the shift from high street to online consumerism of packaged goods with delivery in a package. Like other investors I have been fooled by the logic that someone ought to be making their fortune through packaging when the financials demonstrate making money from this sector does not necessarily follow. My take is that, despite the industry being dominated by big players, there is still too much competition, price constraints without control of costs. Giant buyers are dictating to their supply chain. At some stage in the period all of them seem to have experienced difficulties caused by mergers or debt or whatever, none of them draw praise for excellent strategy or management. SKG stands above but it has wooed investors with high payouts, is it sustainable and invested for the future? SMDS stands below but it has cut payments to tackle debt which might turn out to be a clever move if the cost of borrowing rises strongly, and argues it has been positioning for the future? On the other hand performance of these packaging companies has been OK for large cap mature businesses in markets which have been bumpy, with the exception of SMDS which has underperformed its own index the FTSE which in turn has lagged the world. The conventional explanation is that the FTSE and so SMDS are cheap. Maybe it is because we / they are under-performers?
redartbmud: Is the Smds share price being manipulated by algos set up by the shorters?
cousin jack: SMDS share price since start of year is down by almost double the fall in rivals. I can't see a good reason for the difference, particularly as market indications are that product demand is not being unduly affected by Covid. Possibly the dividend cancellation has led to selling by holders who were holding as part of an income portfolio. Taking a medium term view I think it's reasonable to assume demand will not greatly change and the dividend will at some point be restored. I've been adding on recent down days but the chart indicates that there could be a decent move up soon.
moorsie2: FINANCIAL ANALYSTS: DS Smith - Reiterating Buy rating as earnings are still growing despite challenging market [VRP] NEW YORK, 6 December 2019 (Viewpoint) - excerpt from Vertical Research Partners Continued EPS Growth Should Drive Share Price Appreciation – On Thursday morning, DS Smith released its first-half fiscal 2020 (for the fiscal year ending on April 30th 2020) financial results. EPS was slightly lower than expected, but still grew by 4.6% y/y (when including the Plastics business that is now classified under discontinued operations) despite a challenging environment. SMDS has been consistently growing its adjusted EPS on an annual basis for almost a decade now, even during cyclical downturns in the European containerboard market. It has achieved this growth by utilizing its underlevered balance sheet and achieving strong corrugated box volume growth. While we do expect F2H20 EPS to come in marginally below the F1H19 level, this is primarily due to the sale of the Plastics division (which should be completed by calendar year-end), without which our EPS estimate would point to marginal growth y/y. Furthermore, we project SMDS’ streak of full-fiscal year adjusted EPS growth will continue unabated. More specifically, we project F2020, F2021, and F2022 EPS growth of 1.8%, 1.9%, and 6.7%, respectively. While these numbers are not groundbreaking, they compare positively to our projections for the other four containerboard names we cover – all of which are expected to experience varying degrees of earnings pressure during calendar 2019 and 2020. As such, we remain confident that SMDS’ stock should move higher as investors appreciate the company’s earnings resilience and the global containerboard market improves. Results Slightly Below Expectations… – SMDS reported F1H20 adjusted EPS from continuing operations of £0.17 vs our headline £0.18 estimate, but the actual delta is quite smaller. More specifically, SMDS’ adjusted EPS from continuing operations was 17.3p vs our 17.6p estimate, while our 18.0p “all in” estimate including the earnings contribution of the Plastics division compares to SMDS’ 17.8p. (Note that this small miss vs our estimate is smaller when including Plastics as we previously assumed the sale would have been completed in August while the business ended up contributing for the full half-year period). Operating profitability was actually in-line. Adjusted EBITA (not EBITDA, but EBITA) was £251 million vs our £246 million estimate, driven by lower depreciation. The company’s EBITDA of £498 million was £5 million below our £503 million estimate. EBITA in North America was well below our estimate. Due to re-segmenting, we have no clear picture as to which European segments (which are now three vs four previously) missed/topped our forecasts. However, we believe that SMDS missed us in Northern Europe (along with North America), with results in Western Europe and Eastern Europe were better than expected. We believe the North American softness was due mainly to SMDS’s export exposure. … With Significant Benefits from its Short Board Position – Revenues of £3.188 billion were 1% below our estimate, and just £115 million above their year-ago level despite a £297 million top-line contribution from Europac. Said differently, like-for-like revenues would have declined by 6%. The top-line pressure was driven by (1) lower pricing and volumes for open market board and recyclable products sales and (2) slightly lower box pricing, partially offset by a 0.7% growth in corrugated box volumes (which was less than half our assumed growth rate). Offsetting this top-line pressure were stronger margins. SMDS’ EBITDA margin of 15.6% was 280bps above its year-ago level and in line with our estimate. This sharp margin expansion was driven by the Europac acquisition (which was a structurally-higher margin business) and lower input costs, including externally purchased containerboard and OCC. In the company’s EBITA bridge, pricing was a ~£130 million headwind, offset by £130 million in lower costs. But when it comes to the bottom-line, much of the pricing headwind which was attributed to lower board and recycled fiber prices was offset by the company short board position – as these two items are interlinked. As a reminder, SMDS should be ~85% backwards integrated (meaning it relies on purchased board for 15% of its fiber needs). Hence, all else being equal, lower board prices are actually a net positive for SMDS. (Of course, normally a material change in board prices would lead to a similar change in box prices – which ultimately drive SMDS’s profits – and in a scenario where box/board prices move in lockstep an inflationary environment is better for SMDS). These benefits were also evidenced on the segment performance. The short-board Southern Europe and Eastern Europe divisions experienced margin expansion y/y, while the long-board Northern Europe division saw a 230bps margin contraction. In the US, were the company is ~60% forward integrated (i.e., it sells around 40% of its board externally), margins shrank by 740bps due to the decline in export pricing. Box Prices Holding Up – We understand that during 1H20 SMDS experienced a ~2% price decline, consistent with our assumptions. Overall pricing was a 4.5% headwind to revenues, but according to management ~£80 million of the £101 million headwind was due to lower paper and recycled fiber prices. Going forward, prices should decline further reflecting the continuously declining containerboard prices. As we wrote in our October 10th report (here), we assume ~5% box price erosion from the late-2018 peak in Europe. Despite containerboard prices continuing to decline, we have not changed this assumption yet. We note that the topline price pressure for SMDS however will be more significant due to lower pricing for other products, such as containerboard. Slightly Trimming Estimates – We are slightly lowering our earning’s estimates for SMDS, primarily reflecting lower organic volume growth and lower board/recycled fiber pricing and sales volumes (which also translates into more modest revenue contribution from Europac). Our F2020 EBITDA estimate is reduced by £26 million, to £990 million, with £21 million of this reduction coming in the back-half of F2020. Our F2020 EPS forecast remains at £0.35. Note that with the re-segmenting of the company’s divisions, the segment comparability vs our prior set of estimates is limited. However, we did lower materially our earnings forecast for North America, and believe that Northern Europe is also doing worse than expected – while Western Europe is seeing a larger-than-expected benefit from positive price/cost (with lower input costs for OCC and purchased containerboard not fully flowing through box prices). We expect conditions for the North America business to improve with higher volumes as the new box plant in Lebanon, IN ramps up and as the export market recovers. That, along with additional synergies from the Europac acquisition, should drive modest earning’s upside for F2021 (which starts in less than five months). Our F2021 and F2022 EBITDA estimates are lower by ~1% each, to £1.007 billion and £1.057 billion, respectively. Our F2021 EPS is lowered by one pence, to £0.35, although it is still almost 2% higher than our F2020 forecast. Our F2022 adjusted EPS estimate remains unchanged at £0.38. Chip Dillon, Vertical Research Partners
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