Share Name Share Symbol Market Type Share ISIN Share Description
Smith (ds) Plc LSE:SMDS London Ordinary Share GB0008220112 ORD 10P
  Price Change % Change Share Price Shares Traded Last Trade
  -6.70 -1.85% 356.00 3,670,287 16:35:23
Bid Price Offer Price High Price Low Price Open Price
356.60 356.90 361.50 354.60 354.60
Industry Sector Turnover (m) Profit (m) EPS - Basic PE Ratio Market Cap (m)
General Industrials 6,171.00 350.00 20.60 17.3 4,917
Last Trade Time Trade Type Trade Size Trade Price Currency
17:50:26 O 22,121 357.954 GBX

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Date Time Title Posts
21/2/202010:44Smith (DS) PLC with Charts and News3,355
11/7/201819:15DS Smith - Smudger's on the rise71
03/11/200917:24Whats Happening !!!!!141
23/4/200917:51DS Smith - must be a sell.182
12/2/200215:21SMITH(DS)- whats up? something is cooking?18

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Smith (ds) Daily Update: Smith (ds) Plc is listed in the General Industrials sector of the London Stock Exchange with ticker SMDS. The last closing price for Smith (ds) was 362.70p.
Smith (ds) Plc has a 4 week average price of 339p and a 12 week average price of 339p.
The 1 year high share price is 397.80p while the 1 year low share price is currently 306.30p.
There are currently 1,381,152,787 shares in issue and the average daily traded volume is 7,011,694 shares. The market capitalisation of Smith (ds) Plc is £4,916,903,921.72.
moorsie2: Very theoretical and theoretically I agree 100% But reality is every CEO is measure on total return to shareholders and thus they obsess about the share price. Moreover a lot of their personal wealth is tied up in the share price. So from my experience they do watch it daily and think of ways to positively impact it
jeffian: I don't think Boards/CEO's can or should "manage" the share price. Their job is to manage the business, and if they do it well in terms of growing revenues, margins, profits and dividends - the things they actually can control - then the share price should follow.
moorsie2: FINANCIAL ANALYSTS: DS Smith - Reiterating Buy rating as earnings are still growing despite challenging market [VRP] NEW YORK, 6 December 2019 (Viewpoint) - excerpt from Vertical Research Partners Continued EPS Growth Should Drive Share Price Appreciation – On Thursday morning, DS Smith released its first-half fiscal 2020 (for the fiscal year ending on April 30th 2020) financial results. EPS was slightly lower than expected, but still grew by 4.6% y/y (when including the Plastics business that is now classified under discontinued operations) despite a challenging environment. SMDS has been consistently growing its adjusted EPS on an annual basis for almost a decade now, even during cyclical downturns in the European containerboard market. It has achieved this growth by utilizing its underlevered balance sheet and achieving strong corrugated box volume growth. While we do expect F2H20 EPS to come in marginally below the F1H19 level, this is primarily due to the sale of the Plastics division (which should be completed by calendar year-end), without which our EPS estimate would point to marginal growth y/y. Furthermore, we project SMDS’ streak of full-fiscal year adjusted EPS growth will continue unabated. More specifically, we project F2020, F2021, and F2022 EPS growth of 1.8%, 1.9%, and 6.7%, respectively. While these numbers are not groundbreaking, they compare positively to our projections for the other four containerboard names we cover – all of which are expected to experience varying degrees of earnings pressure during calendar 2019 and 2020. As such, we remain confident that SMDS’ stock should move higher as investors appreciate the company’s earnings resilience and the global containerboard market improves. Results Slightly Below Expectations… – SMDS reported F1H20 adjusted EPS from continuing operations of £0.17 vs our headline £0.18 estimate, but the actual delta is quite smaller. More specifically, SMDS’ adjusted EPS from continuing operations was 17.3p vs our 17.6p estimate, while our 18.0p “all in” estimate including the earnings contribution of the Plastics division compares to SMDS’ 17.8p. (Note that this small miss vs our estimate is smaller when including Plastics as we previously assumed the sale would have been completed in August while the business ended up contributing for the full half-year period). Operating profitability was actually in-line. Adjusted EBITA (not EBITDA, but EBITA) was £251 million vs our £246 million estimate, driven by lower depreciation. The company’s EBITDA of £498 million was £5 million below our £503 million estimate. EBITA in North America was well below our estimate. Due to re-segmenting, we have no clear picture as to which European segments (which are now three vs four previously) missed/topped our forecasts. However, we believe that SMDS missed us in Northern Europe (along with North America), with results in Western Europe and Eastern Europe were better than expected. We believe the North American softness was due mainly to SMDS’s export exposure. … With Significant Benefits from its Short Board Position – Revenues of £3.188 billion were 1% below our estimate, and just £115 million above their year-ago level despite a £297 million top-line contribution from Europac. Said differently, like-for-like revenues would have declined by 6%. The top-line pressure was driven by (1) lower pricing and volumes for open market board and recyclable products sales and (2) slightly lower box pricing, partially offset by a 0.7% growth in corrugated box volumes (which was less than half our assumed growth rate). Offsetting this top-line pressure were stronger margins. SMDS’ EBITDA margin of 15.6% was 280bps above its year-ago level and in line with our estimate. This sharp margin expansion was driven by the Europac acquisition (which was a structurally-higher margin business) and lower input costs, including externally purchased containerboard and OCC. In the company’s EBITA bridge, pricing was a ~£130 million headwind, offset by £130 million in lower costs. But when it comes to the bottom-line, much of the pricing headwind which was attributed to lower board and recycled fiber prices was offset by the company short board position – as these two items are interlinked. As a reminder, SMDS should be ~85% backwards integrated (meaning it relies on purchased board for 15% of its fiber needs). Hence, all else being equal, lower board prices are actually a net positive for SMDS. (Of course, normally a material change in board prices would lead to a similar change in box prices – which ultimately drive SMDS’s profits – and in a scenario where box/board prices move in lockstep an inflationary environment is better for SMDS). These benefits were also evidenced on the segment performance. The short-board Southern Europe and Eastern Europe divisions experienced margin expansion y/y, while the long-board Northern Europe division saw a 230bps margin contraction. In the US, were the company is ~60% forward integrated (i.e., it sells around 40% of its board externally), margins shrank by 740bps due to the decline in export pricing. Box Prices Holding Up – We understand that during 1H20 SMDS experienced a ~2% price decline, consistent with our assumptions. Overall pricing was a 4.5% headwind to revenues, but according to management ~£80 million of the £101 million headwind was due to lower paper and recycled fiber prices. Going forward, prices should decline further reflecting the continuously declining containerboard prices. As we wrote in our October 10th report (here), we assume ~5% box price erosion from the late-2018 peak in Europe. Despite containerboard prices continuing to decline, we have not changed this assumption yet. We note that the topline price pressure for SMDS however will be more significant due to lower pricing for other products, such as containerboard. Slightly Trimming Estimates – We are slightly lowering our earning’s estimates for SMDS, primarily reflecting lower organic volume growth and lower board/recycled fiber pricing and sales volumes (which also translates into more modest revenue contribution from Europac). Our F2020 EBITDA estimate is reduced by £26 million, to £990 million, with £21 million of this reduction coming in the back-half of F2020. Our F2020 EPS forecast remains at £0.35. Note that with the re-segmenting of the company’s divisions, the segment comparability vs our prior set of estimates is limited. However, we did lower materially our earnings forecast for North America, and believe that Northern Europe is also doing worse than expected – while Western Europe is seeing a larger-than-expected benefit from positive price/cost (with lower input costs for OCC and purchased containerboard not fully flowing through box prices). We expect conditions for the North America business to improve with higher volumes as the new box plant in Lebanon, IN ramps up and as the export market recovers. That, along with additional synergies from the Europac acquisition, should drive modest earning’s upside for F2021 (which starts in less than five months). Our F2021 and F2022 EBITDA estimates are lower by ~1% each, to £1.007 billion and £1.057 billion, respectively. Our F2021 EPS is lowered by one pence, to £0.35, although it is still almost 2% higher than our F2020 forecast. Our F2022 adjusted EPS estimate remains unchanged at £0.38. Chip Dillon, Vertical Research Partners
moorsie2: 97Peter - I am sorry but uk politics is virtually irrelevant for SMDS share price! Very little of their revenue and profits are from operations in uk and of those revenues the sensitivities to domestic politics are very very marginal. Misleading and or misinformed posts are dangerous for amateur investors!
erogenous jones: 97peter.... just chill. There is a dividend that you will receive in a few days time of 11p/share. No-one can say with any assurance that the share price will rise to 370p (or higher), but you can draw some comfort from interpreting the chart and use statements that the company has published for guidence. MY interpretation of the chart is that 2018 was a ghastly year from July to the end of December. I attribute this to remarks by the "stable genius". In January right the way up to July 2019, the market has performed very strongly and DS Smith is no exception. With more idiotic comments from Mr Trump to press his case for a trade war with China, the market has dropped considerably. Historically, shares do very much better from Autumn through to Spring than they do from Spring through to Autumn. The clocks change tonight. We will then be in Autumn and with a favourable wind, this will be reflected in rising share prices for all equities. The chart suggests a strong base has been formed this year. I'd like to see 400p tested by Christmas, but this will be more a consequence of half year results that are provisionally forecast for 5 December, guidence for which will be published as Moorsie2 states over the next trading week. FWIW, I placed an open buy order on Friday which has not been filled.
erogenous jones: I am struggling with Moorsie2. From the concise contributions I am inclined to consider he/she is or has aspiration as a day trader. Me... just an ordinary mug punter with a background of career disappointment and failure. Stupid enough to make mistakes but sensible enough not to repeat them too often. That I might have made a few extra shekels here or there is totally unimportant. My goal is, and has always been to do better than average. Of traders, well, most eventually go bust, but usually only after they are consumed with the arrogance of their shrewd activities. Their contributions tend to be very concise and illustrative of the immediacy and urgency that they attribute to "investing". My portfolio has been built very gradually over 43 years. In 6-9 years time I will (I hope) no longer need to work and I will be reliant on my savings to last me through retirement. This period I fully expect to be 20 years and quite possibly longer. With that timescale, I don't give a monkeys for a penny here or there on the share price at purchase. Neither do I care at what price the asset is sold. My care is only to do better than the market. And that means picking more winners than losers and only disposing of assets when the reason to own the asset changes for the worse. I continue to add to my holding in SMDS, but have a buy order in place for Shell that will take precedence. The order for Shell is to maintain a 3% portfolio weighting as the share price has been rather affected by the mantra of fanatics trying to save the planet. Without cardboard boxes and oil, food cannot be produced, goods stored or packaged and freight cannot move goods to feed anyone. SMDS is thus as important a commodity as mobile telephony and equally necessary.
moorsie2: :) the quote of 24 hours was just illustrative of the bigger point from yesterday not the time horizon for my investment decisions. There is however a peculiar silver lining to my dark cloud comments re valuation to peers. If SMDS continues to underperform in share price to its peers (most probably as a result of over paying for acquisitions) it perversely becomes more attractive to an aquisitor. Remember in 2018 IP from the US came looking to buy SKG. So maybe IP or West Rock could be interested in buying a low price SMDS especially when sterling is low and borrowing costs are low.... Unique window of opportunity maybe
erogenous jones: Yeah.... right! Sure, might have overpaid for recent acquisitions, but with due respect to the analyst, is not this not news from many months ago - January from memory? And, funnily enough the share price did fall to under 300p shortly after the acquisition. Basically it seems to me that they don't really have an answer for the weakness in the share price and their institutional guidence is basically avoid. My suspicion for the share price weakness is rather more to do with Germany close to recession, USA showing similar indications, the UK with a pretty flat economy, a trade war with China and unrest in Arab states. This long term holder won't mind if the shares mark time and are range bound. I am at the point in the financial calendar when I try to make some adjustments in preparation for the year ahead. I forecast a further 6 months of excellent return but with a little more volatility. August and September were lousy and my portfolio slipped 8% in that time. Not complaining as am still up 17.1%
loganair: My understanding of Buy/Sell recommendation is... Buy if expecting share price to rise by more then 10% Add share price to increase by 5% to 10% Hold share price plus or minus 5% Reduce share price to fall by 5% to 10% Sell share price to fall by more than 10%
jeffian: Absolutely agree with loganair. Buybacks are management using real (our) cash to try to boost the share price by massaging the NAV and EPS upwards. Unfortunately, the market is an emotional, rather than mathematical, mechanism so every £1 spent will not necessarily be converted into an equivalent increase in the share price. As a shareholder in Whitbread, I am currently waiting to see how much of the £2bn(!) cash being "returned" to us following the sale of Costa will actually find its way into my pocket or added directly to the share price. I am not holding my breath. As for buying back "undervalued" shares, that rather depends on how "value" is assessed. There may be a case if a company's shares are trading at a substantial discount to its underlying assets (the argument currently being used by EI Group whose shares trade at a discount of 40% to its freehold property portfolio) but in the case of SMDS, its 'Net Asset Value' of £3.112bn (equivalent to £2.34/share) actually includes £3.2bn of Intangible Assets.
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