Sky Share Discussion Threads

[loginname] 15/11/2017 19:13

21st Century Fox just held their AGM.

“Murdoch also on Wednesday addressed Fox’s proposed takeover of U.K. broadcast company Sky, which has come under heavy scrutiny from British regulators, and which, he said, “We are confident will close by the middle of next year.”

[tim 3] 14/11/2017 20:23

Apparently Murdoch wants to make Sky news like Fox news a right wing outlet with very little credibility as a serious news outlet but more to the point this I would imagine will not go down well with those considering the bid.

[loginname] 14/11/2017 19:36

Goldmine of all CMA documents as the investigation commenced including some interviews uploaded as recently as today (14/11):

[loginname] 14/11/2017 19:35

Provisional findings just 4 weeks away. Plus chance to take remedial actions before final decision:

“w/c 18 December 2017
Notifying provisional findings and considering possible remedies”

Taken from timetable at link in next post.

[loginname] 06/11/2017 22:22

Although just to add, there is the potential for a bidding war as the Disney news brings out potential bidders for the various assets on offer... It really isn’t clear yet who might end up with all or part of Sky.

“Fox was effectively putting itself up for sale and that the likes of Verizon, the US telecom group, Charter Communications, the US cable company, and internet giant Amazon could be looking at buying all or part of its assets.”

[loginname] 06/11/2017 20:02

The opening price in the morning should tell us either way.

[kamitora] 06/11/2017 19:38

"In addition to the movie studio, TV production and international assets such as Star and B Sky B, Disney would also add entertainment networks such as FX and National Geographic."

No more takeover... unless Disney wants to?

[loginname] 06/11/2017 19:04

Breaking news!
What does this do to the deal (if anything)?

[walbrock82] 12/10/2017 13:35

Looking SKY, here are some interesting thoughts.

Sky PLC is under takeover propose from 21th Century Fox, a firm owned by Rupert Murdoch. It is currently under government review, and the takeover price is £10.75 per share.

Current share price stands at £9.13 per share, a discount of 17.7%. Anyone playing this takeover needs to do due diligence. especially those using leverage. There is a chance the deal would get block by the government. The huge discount means investors aren't optimistic this deal gets made.

Before the takeover got announced, Sky’s shares were trading around £8. A miscalculation could potentially cost investors 12%. unless Sky PLC saw improving operational performance.

First quarter update
Main numbers are:
- 5% increase in like-for-like revenue to £3.3 billion.
- 11% increase in EBITDA to £582 million.

Business in Sky has been getting along and we can assume cost savings are made because sales increase is smaller than EBITDA.
Rule of thumb
(2% growth in sales and 10% growth in operating profit = increase in operating margin.)
(10% growth in sales and 2% growth in operating profit = decrease in operating margin.)

Historical Performance
Without much data from Q1 trading update. Let’s look at Sky PLC over the years.
Although turnover has grown exponentially, SKY has struggled to grow EPS consistently.

There is a lot of debt on their balance sheet, especially after their acquisition of Sky Deutschland and Sky Italia for £7bn. However, this resulted in net borrowing spiking from £6bn to £15bn in one year. Now, it stands at £18bn, which is 23 times larger than net profit (£700m).
Despite the low interest rates, SKY’s interest cover is below their historical average of 6.4 times to stand at 4.7 times.

Market Valuation
With only the first quarter numbers out, there’s a lot of information to measure valuation. Most brokers are putting a “hold” on the stock with price target of £10.75. One broker is super optimistic with a £13 price tag.
Using 2018’s forecast, EV/EBIT is on 15 times multiple, with EBIT margin at 10.8%, below their historical average of 17%.

Final Thoughts
If takeover review panel blocks 21th Century Fox acquisition, then the potential downside is £8 per share. But, SKY’s performance has been up and down if you delve into the raw data.

It explains why net debt to market cap. has risen from below 10% to 60%.

[nerdlinger] 12/10/2017 09:51

I wonder if the market value now ignores the derisory Fox bid as it becomes less likely to meet shareholder approval with each improving results announcement. Assuming the bid fails it would be best if Murdoch's holdings were sold to multiple shareholders, also obviously need a management crony purge.

[blueclyde] 01/7/2017 22:21

The is no question that it won't go through imo there is no smoking gun in any of the reports to raise concerns; every regulator in every other country has approved it and more importantly it is well documented that none of the other broadcasters have stepped forward to raise concerns.The only question is will it be approved two weeks from now or six months from now. The risk with the six months from now being there is another general election ect. The sensible thing for the government would be to approve it to get this over with as there is no justification to block the deal. Pushing it out would make the Government look indecisive hardly what we want considering the Brexit talks..

[nk104] 29/6/2017 15:44

I think the point is that it's only being referred on the 'plurality' grounds not the 'fit and proper' grounds.

21CF has already announced various concessions on the plurality area. It's whether this is enough or whether it will require more concessions.

[eaaxs06] 29/6/2017 14:08

Certainly hasn't harmed the share price.

I was expecting it to be knocked lower.

[spob] 29/6/2017 12:19

this will Dragggg on and onnnn

dead money

[spob] 29/6/2017 12:18

correction

is "minded to refer"

referal decision in 14 days

[sportbilly1976] 29/6/2017 12:07

Bradley dodging the decision, referring to the CMA

[spob] 29/6/2017 12:04

offer referred

[eaaxs06] 29/6/2017 09:47

Hopefully we'll know today, whether £7.94 or £10.75 was the correct call?

[blueclyde] 26/6/2017 11:58

BUY target price 10.75 (nap)

[eaaxs06] 26/6/2017 08:44

Why? Sounds like a complete guess to me.

We'll know more on Thursday.

[the_man_with_the_pink_gun] 25/6/2017 21:50

STRONG SELL

TARGET £7.94p

[the_man_with_the_pink_gun] 25/6/2017 21:49

STRONG SELL

TARGET £7.94p

[eaaxs06] 24/5/2017 12:28

A bit of weakness in the past 2 days, after a steady rise for a month or more?

I hope it's just a bit of light profit taking, rather than any info leaked out?