Sky Share Discussion Threads

[loginname] 05/12/2017 07:05

P.S. Polo Tang is the head of Media analysis at UBS and actually predicted the 2nd Fox bid back in 2015, so he has been following the deal for some time.

Ironically he called Sky cheap back in 2015 when it was £10.79 (above the bid!)

Interesting to look back on 2015 pre bid:

hxxp://uk.businessinsider.com/ubs-sky-cheap-james-murdochs-fox-bid-takeover-2015-6

[loginname] 05/12/2017 07:00

“If Disney or another strategic bidder buys Fox’s 39 percent stake in Sky, it would trigger a mandatory offer for the rest under U.K. Takeover Panel rules, and would probably be approved quickly by regulators, analysts at UBS led by Polo Tang said Monday in a note.”

[buoycat] 04/12/2017 13:04

Thanks for that incredibly perceptive post.

[loginname] 03/12/2017 16:47

Possible outcomes?

“So how should Sky shareholders feel? They face three possible situations.

First, if Fox’s 39 per cent stake in Sky could pass to Disney or a new owner before the UK deal is done, some think it would leave the new owner to make a new mandatory bid for Sky, with fewer plurality concerns. But experts say the UK rules prevent the stake being sold to anyone during the CMA process.

Second, the current Fox/Sky deal could be blocked by the CMA, but Disney or another buyer could later snap up Sky assets. News of the recent talks has only focused attention on what Sky’s 22m TV subscribers and European platform could do for Disney in its race against Netflix.

Third, and most likely, Fox will have to go through with its current Sky deal, accept whatever conditions the CMA imposes, and then sell its businesses to Disney or another buyer.”

www.ft.com/content/931c0318-c3c4-11e7-a1d2-6786f39ef675

[loginname] 01/12/2017 10:36

Yeah that's cool, I like lots of opinions too, but not being called a ramper.

Lets wait and see what happens, the initial CMA findings are due mid December and will give some indication of any potential resolutions that could be taken to guarantee the £10.75 offer, and shareholders will then likely get the special 10p dividend for the delay. And at the same time likely more rumours will bounce around about 21st Century Fox and it's assets being looked at by other companies.

Happy to say I'm long, and waiting for a good outcome in 2018...

Time will tell who is right!

[ball deap] 01/12/2017 10:29

Hi guys, I appreciate your opinion I really do and respect it. But fundamentally if it was doing well it would be reflected in the SP, what it could be and what it is are different sides of the same coin. I have traded for years and not blown up yet. I know a dog when I see one. Don't take it personally but you need to hear the flip side too.

[loginname] 01/12/2017 06:42

Ball Bag - I’ve simply shared some news articles from the recently increased attention Sky is getting, and also some useful facts from the offer documents.

Yes my opinion is this has good potential for a punt as priced about 15% below the £10.75 offer price right now.

But hardly ramping - for example I am not begging you to buy some shares. Perhaps a nice and simple FTSE tracker would suit you better?

[ball deap] 30/11/2017 19:21

Hiya JakNife, if sky has done so well the share price would reflect that but it has drifted down. Sky is a tired format, old hat, out of touch , on the wrong side of news and corrupt with self serving execs and installers.

I'm sorry to be the shorter in a rampers tea party but this needs to be said.

[ball deap] 30/11/2017 11:25

Login I suggest cutting back on the ramping your going to hurt people's finances. Sky is a dog at the moment, it's out of touch with core users, on the wrong side of politics, bad bad one sided news reporting, overly a corrupt organisation from installers to execs. Absolute garbage.

[loginname] 29/11/2017 07:04

“Disney Acquisition Talks With Fox Reportedly Back On”

hxxp://in.ign.com/m/tech/116018/news/disney-acquisition-talks-with-fox-reportedly-back-on

[loginname] 17/11/2017 12:10

"Two US media giants are interested in buying 21st Century Fox’s interest in Sky among other assets, according to reports."

hxxp://www.cityam.com/275950/comcast-and-verizon-explore-bids-21st-century-foxs-stake

[loginname] 17/11/2017 10:46

And here comes Sony to join the party...

hxxps://www.engadget.com/2017/11/17/fox-assets-deal-comcast-verizon-sony/

[loginname] 17/11/2017 09:40

Found the bit about potential dividends in 2018.

This means £10.75 + 0.10 in Jan + some dividends could result in SKY shareholders pulling down almost £11 once it's all over...

"In addition, Sky Shareholders shall be entitled to receive any dividend declared and paid by Sky in the ordinary course in 2018 and prior to the Effective Date. The price of £10.75 per Sky Share shall be reduced to the extent that: the dividend in respect of the six months ending 31 December 2017 exceeds 13.06 pence per Sky Share; and the dividend in respect of the year ending 30 June 2018 exceeds 21.8 pence per Sky Share."

From "Recommended cash offer for Sky Plc by 21st Century Fox Inc." ("sky-21cf-rule-2-7.pdf") here:

hxxps://www.skygroup.sky/corporate/investors/21st-century-fox-offer

[loginname] 17/11/2017 09:36

I agree.
Also - if it falls through, the OpenDemocracy article above suggests a simple approach would be to close Sky then ... resubmit a takeover offer. Neat.

However as per recent news it appears another parent company (Comcast/Verizon/Disney) would be involved by then - so a different, potentially more favorable, case for regulators.

I'm now holding for the 10p special dividend in Jan due to the delay beyond 2017 plus the final £10.75 offer price. There is also the possibility of dividends in 2018 (which as per the offer document will only reduce the offer price beyond a certain level, about 10 or 11p i think). So looking for at least £10.85 from my buy in around £9 - yep 20% - thanks to all the sellers who dont share my view the deal will complete. I'll take that risk. :)

[loginname] 17/11/2017 09:09

Jeez - am i the only one holding SKY these days? Seems quiet on here. People are missing a great opportunity here!

[loginname] 17/11/2017 09:08

Great article from someone attending the CMA "expert round table".

"Curiously, professional investors seem to doubt this outcome, perhaps because they have seen so many obstacles thrown in the way of the deal that they expect some as-yet-unforeseen event to derail it. Otherwise, the prospect of a guaranteed 20%+ capital gain in barely 8 months would make Sky shares at their present price seem an irresistible bargain."

hxxps://www.opendemocracy.net/uk/david-elstein/foxsky-more-twists-and-turns

[loginname] 17/11/2017 09:07

And Verizon sniffing 21CF too now... :)

hxxp://www.cityam.com/275950/comcast-and-verizon-explore-bids-21st-century-foxs-stake