Sirius Minerals Share Discussion Threads

[11_percent] 31/8/2018 23:22

Every penny over 43.7p is a hundred grand to him - so if it goes over in the next month surely he'd take it up...

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Yup.......

[ppvn] 31/8/2018 17:34

Speaking of CBs, shorts increased to 5.97%; Ennismore breached the 0.5% level.

[ppvn] 31/8/2018 16:54

CB sales euro, should be a couple more clips to come. Is only the 4mm though I'm afraid

[eurofox] 31/8/2018 16:47

Uncrossing trades totalled 8,134,148 @ 36, although that double counts the trades on the other side of the 4,067,074 trade

[ppvn] 30/8/2018 21:50

Hi Lenses,

Much the same way as our illustrious bondholders, should the shareprice exceed the 43.7p, CF (or rather, sirius' broker) would just sell the 10.4mm shares, pay sirius up the 43.7p when they deliver the shares, and the CF would pocket the excess. As you say, directors selling down their shareholding is typically not viewed in a positive manner - exercising options less so. It's usually why you wouldn't see a director purchase RNS after the exercise (as they aren't actually buying the shares)...

Every penny over 43.7p is a hundred grand to him - so if it goes over in the next month surely he'd take it up...

[lenses] 30/8/2018 21:29

£4.5m! Come on??

If the ops are in the money before the end he will only ex a token amount at most. It has been said many a time that the only sig liquid asset Fraser has is the one he cannot touch. Would he borrow? No. He cannot sell Sxx shares to pay back.

I think he would be embarrassed if the share price went over the ex price and if he then gained from that. All and sundry bashers would come pouring out of the woodwork to have a field day.

L.

[ppvn] 30/8/2018 14:20

Hi thanksamillion,

Wasn't intending to be facetious - his options could have been exercised at any point above the strike (so by failing to do so around 34 or 35p he forfeit £500k or so). Either a bad trader, got greedy holding for more, or thought it in bad taste to sell 10mm when our funds were disposing of 1.3bn shares.

It's no coincidence the strikes are where they are in my opinion. 29.2p is a level where our CB funds could comfortable sell shares down (thus removing the need for Sirius to repay the $400m principal), 43.7p is beyond the upper range of the CB (based on $350k underlying value) therefore enabling them to call any remaining bonds in 2018. Incentivising this to be dusted by end of sept would just reward the progress of stg1 finance and the successful transition into stg2. We aren't quite there yet, but it's fairly easy to see what the intended timeframe was back in 2016.

Will it slip? Has it slipped? Who knows. We are probably slightly behind in terms of underlying equity sales relating to our CBs, but then build progress slipped by a couple of months at the beginning of the year.

All I read into it is that hopefully CF fancies a few hundred grand and is beating people with a big stick to get the pieces in place. Exciting!!

[thanksamillion] 30/8/2018 13:19

PPVN

Dont know the answer to that but I am assuming perhaps the terms were not met rather than he decided not to take-up the offer.

[phowdo] 30/8/2018 11:04

Dont worry, he wont be in the poor house just yet.
He gets to spin the option bottle on a regular basis so he'll hit paydirt at some point...

[ppvn] 30/8/2018 10:49

Thanksamillion,

Agree we shouldn't make too much of it - but did CF forego any money by choosing not to exercise? Say, in June 2017?

[thanksamillion] 30/8/2018 09:20

Perhaps we should not expect too much re CF share options award expiring in September. He had a similar option [10m @29p] last year which lapsed.

[grahamburn] 29/8/2018 20:13

It's not particularly important as we've had a progress report last month, but in the past two years the interim report has been issued on 16 August. OK that's prompt given a period end of 30 June, but wondered whether there has been a reference somewhere as to when this will come out. Can't see anything on the website or any specific RNS.

[ppvn] 29/8/2018 17:01

11%; the option strike at 43.7p means CF would make precisely zero pounds if there is only 8p in uplift by that date. He will only pocket the value of his options over and above the 43.7p strike...

[not my real name] 29/8/2018 16:56

I was a bit concerned about the lack of news on the bank commitment letters but figure if anything untoward was happening the money men would know about it and have shorted these to single figures by now.

I now reckon CF is holding back on the news so he can double up or even triple whammy the market. 26th September is round the corner!

NMRN

[ppvn] 29/8/2018 16:47

NMRN; Bingo!

Will be an orderly end to the CBs, I for one am greatly looking forward to it. Has sure been a long time coming!

[not my real name] 29/8/2018 16:41

PPVN,

I knew we held on to you for a reason! I never even thought about the CB holders having to maintain their margin on the shorts. Although not necessarily expensive it does tie up massive amounts of capital that could be utilised elsewhere.

NMRN

[11_percent] 29/8/2018 16:27

So.......CF needs to get the share price to 43.7p by 26th Sept.

We are sitting on 36.........so 8p up for grabs.......might buy a few for the larfff....

[ppvn] 29/8/2018 16:16

Hi NMRN,

Would be nice, but nothing is ever that simple is it. We don't need that many more chinamen before getting to a decent place WRT the remaining bonds. However, having the shares sold short and having surrendered bonds for conversion are two separate things unfortunately. It'll depend on the borrow cost, financing rates etc to determine whether or not funds will ultimately submit their bonds for conversion or continue to hold with their short equity position. Sirius can't actually force their hands until after 19th December (if >$350k), or if 85% of the bondholders already capitulate and convert. I'm still of the view that stage 2 should prove so expensive in terms of financing outstanding short positions that it'll force conversions, but we shall see. That also assumes a favourable outcome for stg2 obviously.

September has quietly crept up on me. Will be an interesting month as I'm sure CF will like to see his options in the money (as well as his core holding!).

Good to see you still here by the way.

[not my real name] 29/8/2018 16:00

Afternoon PPVN,

Just to add to the above.............if your figures are correct then we only need to see 270m sold to get us to 85% where the rest will gladly relinquish their CBs for fear of conversion at par.

NMRN

[ppvn] 29/8/2018 13:13

Hi all, as it's so quiet and not too much going on thought I'd rerun some calculations just for erm fun. Please jump in and correct (where appropriate).

So post incentivised offer to convert, shorts dropped to 3.62% (this is a figure from memory). Today they stand at 5.46%, or a change of 1.84% representing 86,480,000 shares.

Since 20th April, post 4.30pm, 157,940,374 shares have been transacted, as I've said I believe most of these to be CB holders selling short.

Current declared shorts = 5.46% = 256,620,000
Change in shorts declared since 20th Apr = 86,480,000
Aftermarket vols in same period = 156,940,374
So what i estimate to be still to be reported shorts (Inc holders below 0.5%) = 71,460,374

So when viewed in terms of 1,221 bonds currently outstanding means I believe around 465mm shares left to sell, before CBs are gone.

CF has a bit of work to do to get his options in the money by the end of next month. Only a couple of things in my mind could be positive enough to get us across the line... Big month ahead.

[not my real name] 28/8/2018 10:38

Spirito,

Wow! I didn't realise it was that big a day!

NMRN

[spirito] 28/8/2018 08:37

leeds play preston in the league cup?