Sirius Minerals Share Discussion Threads

[johnwise] 27/4/2018 13:24

SIRIUS CORPORATE SOCIAL RESPONSIBILITY REPORT

[carla1] 27/4/2018 12:50

Goose give yourself a slap... it's you in another guise :-)

[11_percent] 27/4/2018 10:59

Carla.....starting to think mr.oz is a ringer......

[coolhandfluke] 27/4/2018 10:58

Hi JVYes I agree. Another impression is that the mine is becoming too important to fail.

[carla1] 27/4/2018 10:35

Oh yes... goose the reservoir meeting !!

[johnveals] 27/4/2018 09:46

chf - that was the impression I came away with. The project is still not without risks, and therefore the long term value to us as PIs, but there is definitely the sense that in a few years time we will have a mine producing a product to sell on the open market.

[11_percent] 27/4/2018 09:26

27 Apr '18 - 08:38 - 32145 of 32147
0 0 0
i see the speculators have arrived.
-----

They never left m8....

[coolhandfluke] 27/4/2018 09:15

Just back from my visit to Whitby. No fog just a clear view of a bright future. Can't imagine after all that's been invested from seeking approval to where we are today that this will not be successful. May have even convinced the wife to let me buy a few more?

[spirito] 27/4/2018 08:44

If only it were that simple!

[eurofox] 27/4/2018 08:38

i see the speculators have arrived

[tmmalik] 27/4/2018 08:31

Now 30-38 rise will b quick And as soon as 38 break ,50p will b matter of daysXmas time if project on schedule and finance part sorted I m expecting 100p

[altom] 27/4/2018 08:08

Does the rise above 30p mean something special on the charts?

[11_percent] 27/4/2018 08:05

Here we go guys......just bought a few...

[ppvn] 26/4/2018 18:17

Whilst still small, an interestingly high post close number when calculated as a %age of total trading volume today. share price seemed quite well supported throughout the day also.

Has NMRN done it again....

[ppvn] 26/4/2018 09:53

Thanks for clarifying Lenses. Whilst we all wait, I'll say right now that I don't think (and I've said this before) that we will get to December 19th this year with any CBs outstanding. If TorPs don't do it, if stage 2 is all vanilla repayable debt it will for sure. That's in my opinion the biggest risk factor attached to being a sirius shareholder at this time. If all debt, I'll buy more I think. It'll put them within reach of billions of revenue per annum and with a largely unchanged share amount, assuming mine progresses smoothly.

We saw Vanguard buying in the high 20's. I doubt that's the last of their purchases. Other portfolio managers will be looking at the constituents of other funds; it's certainly not beyond possibility that other funds buy on the back of their purchases. Staley (as someone kindly noted here the other day) has his bonus directly tied to a greater number of institutional holders. It'll happen, and I'm hopeful it'll be sooner than later.

[johnwise] 26/4/2018 09:33

.
Bauer’s MC shaft cutters on site today at Sirius Woodsmith Mine Yorkshire

[johnwise] 26/4/2018 08:18

SIRIUS MINERALS POLY4 PRODUCT HANDBOOK


"POLY4 has four key attributes that benefit farmers by increasing their profits
in a sustainable way through improved yields, reduced costs or botth"

[lenses] 26/4/2018 08:16

Callable at par (=200k) plus accrued interest as well, not at 350k. 350k is the trigger price based on the sp, ~38 to 39p. This only applies post 19 December.

Soon a gamble to hold for the bond takers, particularly with St2 achieved, the co then want rid. Note Staley's expectation in rns.

L.

[johnwise] 26/4/2018 07:28

SIRIUS MINERALS POLY4 PRODUCT HANDBOOK

POLY4 has four key attributes that benefit farmers by increasing their profits
in a sustainable way through improved yields, reduced costs or botth

[ppvn] 25/4/2018 15:13

Ah, the bonds as an investment! Sorry, with you now. They become callable if the underlying shares become worth $350k (and the bonds would only in theory be worth that if sold in share form rather than bond, since the bonds would be redeemed at par if not converted), so no. I don't think any of the bonds would be held as a standalone investment.

[not my real name] 25/4/2018 15:04

Hi PPVN,

I get that the short positions are all hedge funds but the question is, are all the bonds held by hedge funds?

Could there be a significant amount in investment type funds?

Edit: Something like the Chinese Liberation Army Pension Fund? :)

NMRN

[ppvn] 25/4/2018 13:29

Hi NMRN, I do indeed work on the assumption that all our CB holders will convert their bonds to equity and sell out. I do this because all of the short positions (and again I assume all are CB related) are hedge funds, with the exception of JPM (but I believe they are reporting on behalf of a fund). Hedge funds to my knowledge would not elect to hold shares as an investment; they would not be hedged so therefore by definition would not look to follow this route. Their maximum uplift is $150k per $200k principal (they could theoretically make more if they sold short, bought back under the strike, resold, etc etc but let's consider $150k the limit) whilst being fully hedged. So I assume they will, as the bonds (theoretically) increase up to the 650,195 shares being worth $350k, sell out and move onto the next bond issue. Their strategies don't really involve (to my knowledge) holding shares - whilst we are invested here because we are confident of making a handsome return, they don't take this view. They look to gain profit by selling shares at their maximum value whilst being hedged against possible loss. If they decide to hold shares, then that is a bonus for us and our share price could move up faster (but I don't personally believe they will). If there are a greater number of shorts (I.e. positions just under the reportable 0.5% amount), they could theoretically get through the remaining shares faster. I tend to err on the side of caution because that way I could be pleasantly surprised rather than disappointed. I did the sums a few weeks back and we have sold around 13.5% more shares than bought since the CBs became convertible - our shareprice will go up measurably once CBs are dealt with but it's taking time.

Do you have any other nationalities that might be lurking to buy? Worked out pretty well for us when you mentioned the chinaman...

[not my real name] 25/4/2018 12:12

grahamburn,

Lets hope so! Bigger percentage the better as far as we're concerned.

NMRN

[grahamburn] 25/4/2018 11:33

NMRN

Tend to agree with your logic. OK the typical bond holder is probably different from the typical convertible preference shareholder, but I would have thought that there must be a reasonable percentage of them who regard such bonds as a good risk free way into a significant shareholding in a company.

[not my real name] 25/4/2018 10:50

PPVN,

Just read your latest post and have a question. Your figures make the assumption that ALL the bond holders will short and convert.

Is there not a chance that a decent percentage of them would want to hang on to the shares as an investment and we could be clear of the shorting in a much quicker timescale than your figures would imply?

They are already showing a paper profit of around 18% and collecting 8.5% a year regardless.

I understand how the bond market works but not the mentality of the bond holders so hopefully you can spread the knowledge!

Thanks.

NMRN