Sirius Minerals Share Discussion Threads

[11_percent] 25/4/2018 09:22

Ahhhhh....sorry, was being a bit thick.......you mean the NY dealers...

[eurofox] 25/4/2018 09:17

Dark pools, a type of alternative trading system, give investors the opportunity to place orders and make trades without publicly telegraphing their intentions until the sale has been executed. They are mostly used by institutional investors for block trades involving a large number of securities.

The primary advantage of dark pool trading is that institutional investors making large trades don't have to show their hand during the process of finding buyers and sellers. This prevents heavy price devaluation which would otherwise occur. If it was public knowledge, for example, that an investment bank was trying to move 500,000 shares of a security, the security would almost certainly have decreased in value by the time the bank found buyers for all of their shares. This has become an increasingly likely risk, with electronic trading platforms helping prices respond much more quickly to market pressures. If the new data is reported only after the trade has been executed, however, the news will have a much smaller impact on the market.

There are several different kinds of dark pools: broker or dealer-owned exchanges, like Morgan Stanley's (MS) MS Pool and Goldman Sachs' (GS) Sigma X; independently owned exchanges offering private trading to their clients; and private exchange markets operated by public exchanges, like the New York Stock Exchange's Euronext. An privately-owned market will have price discovery within their own markets, but a dark pool operated by a broker or an existing derives its prices from public exchanges.

[11_percent] 25/4/2018 08:55

Anyway.....it's 29 here.........LSE.........(not sure about dark pool exchange).....

[11_percent] 25/4/2018 08:50

eurofox25 Apr '18 - 08:42 - 32123 of 32126
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11%, That is the whole point of dark pools of liquidity.

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"dark pools of liquidity".......????....care to elaborate..

[eurofox] 25/4/2018 08:45

I guess the real issue is the extent to which they use the lse order book as a price discovery mechanism

[oggyrocks] 25/4/2018 08:44

A little while ago there were confusing comments about 7% of GDP.I think the below is what was meant. The Project will deliver a major boost to the local, regional and national economies. At full production this would include: • 2,500 direct and indirect jobs • £2.3 billion annual contribution to UK GDP • £2.5 billion of exports per annum (representing a 7% reduction in the 2015 balance of trade deficit)

[eurofox] 25/4/2018 08:43

I have certainly traded bonds that way in the past

[eurofox] 25/4/2018 08:42

11%, That is the whole point of dark pools of liquidity.

[11_percent] 25/4/2018 08:41

PS......it's still 29.....

[11_percent] 25/4/2018 08:40

Euro,

Do you know what you are saying........SXX shares ...."will be traded in the same way at pre arranged prices in bulk through off exchange venues."

You mean there is no " real" market for SXX shares.....just a bunch of guys doing off market deals. BTW, I agree with you.

[eurofox] 25/4/2018 07:37

Interesting that lse reported 37 million traded yesterday mostly in off exchange transactions so maybe the bulk of new shares that are not used to close shorts will be traded in the same way at pre arranged prices in bulk through off exchange venues. That would certainly speed the disposal process.

[lendmeafiver] 24/4/2018 18:08

From the annual report relating to the 2018 bonus calculation for Fraser and staley:


OBJECTIVES FOR CHRIS FRASER HAVE BEEN SET AROUND THE FOLLOWING KEY AREAS:

Stage 2 financing completed successfully by the end of 2018 30%
Project procurement required for stage 2 financing in place 15%
Bankable Supply Agreements in place 15%

OBJECTIVES FOR THOMAS STALEY HAVE BEEN SET AROUND THE FOLLOWING KEY AREAS:

Stage 2 financing completed successfully by the end of 2018 65%
Increase the percentage of share register held by institutional investors 15%

[ppvn] 24/4/2018 16:32

Np at all teataster. I personally think if people understand how and why a share is moving as it is, it's less of a worry. Obviously check all the above for yourselves and don't do anything on my say so, etc etc.

[ppvn] 24/4/2018 16:19

Yep, for potential returns in 5 or 10 years this one is relatively hard to beat. Forgot two things; Vanguard were buyers at 29.04p, and also I work on the assumption (and it is a big one) that stg2 will primarily be debt, not equity, or at least the vast majority debt that will be repayable in cash. Oh and the little matter of building the mine going smoothly.

[teataster] 24/4/2018 16:17

PPVN, it's very helpful to the uninitiated (me) to read your clear explanations. It's much appreciated.

[laallee] 24/4/2018 16:01

This boring share suits me buddy. I'm in profit and that is hard to achieve in this jungle. It will be a really boring share in a few years, all that sitting around waiting to see if a dividend will be paid, then reading about how it could get bigger and how often!
Your info is greatly appreciated.
Thank you.

[ppvn] 24/4/2018 15:54

Ha ha, no problem laallee. Boring times and has been for quite a while. Hopefully not too much longer, and hopefully makes it a bit easier when all the numbers are put out there. TorPs and stage 2 details will break us out with any luck.

[laallee] 24/4/2018 15:30

thanks PPVN,
Love you XXX

[ppvn] 24/4/2018 15:13

Hello, so now that the share issuance business is behind us it’s hopefully clear that these bonds, once converted, will not affect our shareprice or our market volume. What is affecting our shareprice is the background selling that is going on and will continue to do so until all (well, 85% or so) remaining shares represented by our CBs have been sold. As I’ve previously noted, the large trades that appear post close are, in the main, the amount that our CB holders have sold during the day. So what does this mean?


- Our CB holders elected to convert 331 bonds at Sirius’ invitation, represented by the 215mm shares issued (net of incentive, premium to parity shares etc). This number of shares or thereabouts will disappear from our outstanding short positions in the coming days. The reason why they still remain today is that shares have not yet been returned to lenders, short filings have not yet been made, etc. The positions in Short Tracker also seem to update retrospectively, so for example should a change occur in the positions today on the website, it would have been notified to the FCA on around 18th April (for example). I expect the 300mm number to have dropped to around 100mm by the middle of next week.

- We have 1,221 bonds remaining o/s at this time, which for all intents and purposes represents 793.9mm shares remaining to be sold by our CB holders. Of that 793.9mm shares, approximately 100mm will remain short (so the net “for sale” amount of shares is currently around 694mm).

- We are in a trading range because of this selling pressure above the call option Sirius have on the bonds ($0.538), and because of the outstanding short positions which will be buying back heavily in the market should the shareprice drop below the strike ($0.3076). So conveniently, we are pretty much exactly in the middle of this range and have been since February. Anything near or below the strike is therefore a screaming buy, anywhere above would be a sell (if you’re looking to trade). Anything inbetween is really guesswork, or company progress on the mine, or sentiment, or whatever.

So what could break us out of this range? Well, selling all remaining shares. I say “all” remaining shares with the following caveat – Sirius have a call option on the bonds should 85% be converted. This does not mean that they will purchase them back at par. It means they will give notice to bondholders that they are going to call the bonds, and that CB holders have until xxx date to convert them to shares, which the CB holders will – and they will continue to sell the shares they get at their leisure going forward. We would need Sirius to have received conversion requests for 1,700 bonds by that stage. So by my calculations, we have 793.9mm shares remaining to be sold, less the 100mm shares that will remain as outstanding shorts (the “hedge”, for the CB holders bond), less the 195mm shares that will be issued when bonds are called – so around 498.9mm shares to be sold in the market until we are free of our CB holders influence (less the 195mm shares to be sold at a future date – they won’t however be dumped into the market as that would be detrimental to our CB holders profitability – thus they will not do this).

It has been fairly clear the above path would be followed since bonds were issued – the unknown factors were how long it would take the CB holders to sell their shares. Last year, we were trading around 100mm shares per day and bondholders were able to sell huge quantities of shares every day so it seemed we would plough through in no time at all. With hindsight, this wasn’t to be since volumes dried up – but from the original 1.3bn shares to be sold, hopefully it can be seen that we are getting through them but that patience is still required. I took the view back in the beginning of 2017 that TorPs, buyers etc could realistically take a position in Sirius thus removing most of the shares to be sold by CB holders quite quickly – this wasn’t to be – but it still could happen (and eventually will do). Various Vanguard funds bought nearly 100mm shares last month – there aren’t really that many shares that need to be bought (its an investment of c. £145mm) for the market dynamic of Sirius to change quickly. By the time CB funds are out, Sirius shares will have sold at least 1.3bn more shares than bought – so I take the view that our price will rise quite considerably once the funds are out.

[coldspring] 24/4/2018 09:03

Seems that Sirius advances early but then falls back on most days I watch.

[coolhandfluke] 24/4/2018 08:59

Every day Lloyds bought back millions of shares the share price went down. Sirius issue more shares and the share price goes up. Issue more shares.

[johnwise] 23/4/2018 20:46

Not My Real Name 23 Apr '18 - 19:10 - 32108 of 32108

Shock me, say something intelligent.

[not my real name] 23/4/2018 19:10

bus_ter23 Apr '18 - 17:41 - 32104 of 32107

The annual financial report didn't go down too well??
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Just been on the hotline to Johnmoron. Nothing to worry about, clearly just another deramper writing the report!

NMRN