Sirius Minerals Share Discussion Threads

[11_percent] 19/3/2018 08:32

janekane
19 Mar '18 - 05:17 - 31501 of 31503
0 0 0
What news will we get today
Will we have a new % holder

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No.....did not have them long enough between conversion and sell.

[11_percent] 19/3/2018 08:30

And when did you mention this..........bots have been active for months...all the deals are AT.

[carla1] 19/3/2018 08:16

As previously mentioned...Looks like the start of rinse and repeat..Sell bots active

[janekane] 19/3/2018 05:17

What news will we get today
Will we have a new % holder

[johnwise] 19/3/2018 00:32

VIDEO
GLOBAL WARMING IS THE BIGGEST FRAUD IN HISTORY - Dan Pena

[11_percent] 18/3/2018 22:58

So......what we are saying is that tomorrow is going to be a damp sqib......low volume, nothing happening....and mr.oz was correct..."what Monday?"....

[rrrrrrrrr2] 18/3/2018 16:18

Ppvn. Lol. I don’t have to believe the evidence. It’s fact all documented in the trade history of the company. All documented in the shorts history of the company and more importantly all linking to the massive UT trade we had on the 16th June. Which also coincided with the highs we seen last June and then coincided with the fall witnessed from then until February. Rinse and repeat.

[ppvn] 18/3/2018 16:09

Rrr; if you believe your evidence is indeed evidence then that's great. I've said my bit and will leave it at that.

[rrrrrrrrr2] 18/3/2018 16:00

Ppvn. Not sure what you are disagreeing with. I am backed up with actual evidence. It cannot be disputed as it’s all there to see.
Now your mystical Chinese investor purchasing the 106 million the cbs have disposed off is rather more speculative.
I am just asking what is different between June’s UT trade and Fridays, and all the evidence of activities that coincided with June’s UT trade.
I am a holder here but prefer not to speculate on rumours of mystery buyers.

[rrrrrrrrr2] 18/3/2018 15:35

I am really listening. Ppvn is saying these don’t show as trades, so it cannot be, plus we are due to find out.
So my question is what’s the difference with the trade on the 16 th June 2017. 166m UT trade. What was that about on that date. I have looked at the chatter on that date, and it was all about who had bought that many, we would find out on the Monday etc etc. Just like I am hearing now. But no one bought them shares and the evidence I have backed it up with the help of hindsight is that it was cbs converting and shorts closing and opening. So I am still all ears.

[ppvn] 18/3/2018 15:33

Hey NMRN, apols for the delayed response but I was out walking and my hands weren't in the mood for a long response! In a nutshell, believe you're on the right lines with your theory, but I'd refine slightly. I mentioned a caveat on Friday that I believed the liquidity for the 106mm transaction came from CB holders. If your Chinese investor wanted to buy that many shares, it would clear the order book several times over given the size. So at the moment, my view is that the sellers of shares (the CB holders) sold that 106mm to a genuine buyer. It wouldn't be possible to sell that volume and at that price unless there is an aquiror of our shares. However, the CB holders won't necessarily convert (they might choose to just go more short) and even if they do convert we won't be notified anyway because of the blocklisting Of 300mm shares in jan. So as you said on Fri, I've got my fingers crossed for a holding rns, assuming whoever made the transaction crosses a reporting %age. It's not a certainty so I will be looking for other explanations, but for the moment it's the best I've got.

Rrr, we're going to have to agree to disagree in that case.

[not my real name] 18/3/2018 15:24

rrr,

You may be all ears........but you ain't listening!

:)

NMRN

[rrrrrrrrr2] 18/3/2018 15:12

Ppvn. How does it not tie in. 16 th June 2017. A 166 million UT trade which is higher than Fridays UT trade. Look on the sxx short tracker. Around the 16th June, sxx shorts went from 6% short to 3% short back to 6% short. On the chart it’s just one big vertical line. The volume on the 15 June was 12 million and the 19th June ( 16 th was a Friday)volume was about 10 million. Look at the other big volume days in jun 17. All of them coincided with a cb RNS( we only updating monthly now) and they all coincide with shorts being closed. Please explain the difference the. Please between the 166 UT trade in jun compared to the one on Friday and how the shorts and cbs coincided with that large UT trade. I am all ears.

[ppvn] 18/3/2018 14:59

It doesn't tie in and I've explained how and why. Market volumes are not affected by conversions of CBs. Larger volume allows greater sale of stock short which then allows for subsequent conversion of bonds. No volume published on conversion.

[rrrrrrrrr2] 18/3/2018 14:41

Nmrn. Google historical averages of sxx. Find the days when we have had volumes which look out of place. Like 10 million one day to 100 million plus the day after, then back to a few million the day after. Then go to investegafe and look for RNSs around those dates. Then go to the sxx short tracker after and around those dates. It all ties in.

[not my real name] 18/3/2018 14:31

Hi PPVN,

Been giving this some thought and have a bit of a theory I'd like to throw out there.

These 100m shares have just appeared from nowhere and that is the mystery for the moment. The shares have risen around 30% in the last month. What if..................

.......a wealthy Chinese investor wanted to take a significant stake in Sirius. Let's call him Mr Vell Lee Well Ti. He does a deal with a bond holder to take all his shares of his hands for 29.04p. He starts buying everything available on the open market until the price goes up around 29p.

Bond holder converts on Friday and does simultaneous transaction with Mr Well Ti. Both report in RNS some time next week.

Possible? Unlikely? Anyone?

NMRN

[rrrrrrrrr2] 18/3/2018 14:25

Ppvn. The last time we had volume of this signifance was on the 16th June 2017. We had 283 million volume. That same day we had a RNS about 335 bonds had been converted in total which starting converting at the end of May bar 2. Now we have been told we won’t receive news every time there is conversion. But would you say it was just coincidence that the last conversion were around a freak day. The day before the 283 million we traded 14 million and the day after 12 million. On Thursday we traded 7 million.

[ppvn] 18/3/2018 13:12

Not CB related; the only vol that is reported that relates to those is when short positions are established. When bonds are converted the equity is issued and the CB holders are also the short holders; they return their borrows and close the position. No market trade so no volume reported.

[not my real name] 18/3/2018 12:49

rrr,

I already posted on Friday that I thought it was a strange transaction. I have no idea who, why, where, when or how but I can wait until disclosure or further information comes out.

I totally agree that discussion is good.

I wouldn't be surprised if you are completely right about CB conversions or reductions in the shorts.

All I am trying to get across to you is that it was nothing whatsoever to do with options.

NMRN

[11_percent] 18/3/2018 12:47

WEETNIE
18 Mar '18 - 12:29 - 31480 of 31484
0 0 0
They got a positive mention in this weekends Hargreaves lansdowne business news.

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They always get someone to ramp it when they are running a pump.....The Sunday Times and weekend Times were famous for it.

Do you remeber the "mutter from the gutter" article.

[11_percent] 18/3/2018 12:44

The AR doesn't say how many options are held by non directors, which seems to me to be a serious omission, but the options outstanding in the RNS total 19.14 million with the biggest batch, 10.3m @43.7 pence exercise price belonging to Fraser, expiring end September this year.

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So, there 19.14 options outstanding.

The directors have 15,537,620, with CF being the latgest, but not expring till 26th Sept.

That gives 3,602,380 expiring sometime, belonging to someone.

[ppvn] 18/3/2018 12:43

I'll take a look and see if there was anything out of the ordinary in terms of derivative volumes next week if I get a moment. At this time I'm as much in the dark as the next person with regard to what drove the exceptional volume after hours. However I did say last year that it was going to be a boring few months post stg1 finance; I'm of the view that this boredom could be drawing to a close however which is great news. I dislike observing disclosures or other events that I cannot explain so i do intend to get to the bottom of whatever drove the vol. I think the most likely case at this juncture is a buyer. Whilst I don't contend that there are some options out there for sirius, it's not hedging (which is the usual driver behind witching which is why I don't think it's that), and they don't all expire in March, there are not as many as that magnitude we saw in vol, and we haven't been told that any are being extended which further justifies mine and others views. A mystery for now, but I'm sure it won't be for long.

[christopher logsdon] 18/3/2018 12:43

What does substantial dividend equate to?

[rrrrrrrrr2] 18/3/2018 12:37

Nmrn. What are you talking about. I have 222k in here and 148k in a sipp. I am not going to blindly accept that someone bought 106 million on Friday because they didn’t. So I want to try and understand what it can be. I have enjoyed the slow steady rise the past 5 weeks or so. I don’t like huge rises because they can be followed by huge drops and too much volatility. The 106 million was a UT trade. There was also a 10 million trade and a few other big ones. Discussion is healthy but saying it was categorically a 106 million buy is wrong and if it was, then who and why, with a great rise, would they sell them. I wouldn’t be surprised at all for the 6.12 per cent current shorts to reduce tomorrow and cbs to have converted.

[weetnie] 18/3/2018 12:29

They got a positive mention in this weekends Hargreaves lansdowne business news