Sirius Minerals Share Discussion Threads

[anley] 17/1/2018 16:48

No way is this business a take-over proposition.

The banks and large shareholders would not allow this as they have not "received" any profit from this venture...........when its mature in a few years time - YES - may be the answer.

In the meantime this is what I call a share to buy on the dips and we have one at the moment.

[dp1umb] 17/1/2018 13:58

Ok John the markets all wrong and the shares should be trading at circa £1 point taken.

[johnwise] 16/1/2018 19:33

3 ways Sirius Minerals plc could make you rich


When I’ve written about Sirius Minerals (LSE: SXX) in the past, I’ve always concluded that the company has enormous potential. It’s flagship North Yorkshire potash project could generate billions in income for the firm, and shareholders should be well rewarded.

Here are the three top ways investors are set to profit as the company builds up its operations.

Income
When the firm’s production hits full scale, I estimate it will be able to book a profit margin of around 400%. This assumption is based on the fact that the company already has many agreements in place with companies around the world to buy its polyhalite at a price of $145 a tonne, hence a gross profit margin of nearly 400% on estimated production costs of $30 a tonne.

As I wrote at the beginning of June:

“To mine the required 8.1m tonnes, it would cost the company an estimated $243m at the price of $30 per tonne giving an estimated profit before depreciation, admin, interest and tax costs of just under $960m. Over the long term, the company is targeting production of 20m tonnes a year, giving an estimated profit of $2.4bn.”

Considering the initial production costs of the mine are estimated at $3bn, it won’t take Sirus long to pay down its debt obligations, move to a net cash position, and look for ways to return cash to investors.

Sirius’ current market value is $1.1bn, so if it pays out only 10% of its profit when production is in full swing, investors could be set to receive a dividend yield of around 16% based on today’s prices.

Growth potential
Even if management does not return cash to investors if Sirius hits the profit target of $2.4bn per annum, the shares are deeply undervalued today. For example, one of the company’s competitors, Potash Corporation of Saskatchewan, currently trades at an EBITDA multiple of 11.3. Placing the same multiple on estimated near-term EBITDA of $960m for Sirius gives a potential market value of $10.8bn, or £8.3bn, 650% above current levels.

Takeover candidate
As well as the company’s income and growth potential, Sirius also looks to be an excellent takeover candidate. As I’ve already covered throughout this article, shares in Sirus look exceptionally cheap compared to the firm’s long term potential. It’s highly likely that a competitor has spotted this potential already… and even more likely that a competitor will consider a bid now that Sirius has received all the necessary approvals and has started construction.

If the firm can produce a profit of $2.4bn in the future, any buyer would be getting a great deal if it made a move today.

[diesel] 16/1/2018 16:44

JW, always happy to see a bullish poster, but reality is important, especially for investors new to this.
When management say they are on time and budget, they are talking like politicians, never a comforting approach. They have slipped by two months, that was not planned, they will not be on time unless they make that time up, there may well be contingency for slippage but that is another matter as at this early stage further slippages are likely. As for weather issues, it's winter, it's the northeast, it should be part of the project planning timeline.

[johnwise] 16/1/2018 16:12

Sirius Minerals:

Construction started last January at the mine and a Teesside processing plant which will create 1,000 direct jobs and potentially 1,500 more in the supply chain.

See how field is turning into mine that will support thousands of jobs

[johnwise] 16/1/2018 12:59

Security firm 'keen to hear' from new recruits after winning Sirius Minerals work

CFB Risk Managament will protect multi-billion pound mine sites

[christopher logsdon] 16/1/2018 11:27

Nice to see you're still about Spirito

[johnwise] 16/1/2018 07:44

What a difference a year makes! Check out our time lapse video of work on the service shaft at Woodsmith Mine over the last 12 months.

Video

[johnwise] 16/1/2018 07:43

Last week Sirius told investors it was confident that production at the project will start on time and on budget.

The quarterly update indicated there had been some delay to excavation of the mine due to the weather in Yorkshire, but Sirius is confident it can make up the time lost.

Appointing a contractor to sink the main shaft at the mine is the next key task and all avenues are being explored to ensure this happens as soon as possible and that the impact on the overall construction programme is minimised, said the statement.

Woodsmith, in North Yorkshire, is host to an estimated 2.6bn tonnes of fertiliser rich in potassium, calcium and magnesium.

Sirius raised US$1.2bn for stage one of the project and is expected to raise a further US$2.6bn this year to fund the build-out of the shafts and a 23-mile tunnel to a terminal on the River Tees.

[johnwise] 16/1/2018 07:41

What a difference a year makes! Check out our time lapse video of work on the service shaft at Woodsmith Mine over the last 12 months.

Video

[johnwise] 16/1/2018 07:41

Last week Sirius told investors it was confident that production at the project will start on time and on budget.

The quarterly update indicated there had been some delay to excavation of the mine due to the weather in Yorkshire, but Sirius is confident it can make up the time lost.

Appointing a contractor to sink the main shaft at the mine is the next key task and all avenues are being explored to ensure this happens as soon as possible and that the impact on the overall construction programme is minimised, said the statement.

Woodsmith, in North Yorkshire, is host to an estimated 2.6bn tonnes of fertiliser rich in potassium, calcium and magnesium.

Sirius raised US$1.2bn for stage one of the project and is expected to raise a further US$2.6bn this year to fund the build-out of the shafts and a 23-mile tunnel to a terminal on the River Tees.

[blindsquirrel] 16/1/2018 05:30

Donson "I have to add that I sold when they were 38p"
Why did you have to? Presumably to let everyone know how clever you are LOL

[donsan] 15/1/2018 20:17

Blimey, how many posts have I read where people are harping on about their retirement pot, if you/ve been buying these since they were 15p, were you buying when they were 40p or even 45p as many were, what a con, these will soon be sub 20p and if they ever go sub 10p I may just look into buying. I have to add that I sold when they were 38p, but feel these are just over hyped, anyway GL

el Don

[y1phr1] 15/1/2018 14:48

Been buying these since 15p excellent investment for my retirement. Good luck all longs.

[11_percent] 15/1/2018 14:16

You could have got them 22p......which is the short term target.

[y1phr1] 15/1/2018 13:58

That's me topped up.

[y1phr1] 15/1/2018 11:46

Just what I am doing my next buy is 23p hopefully in the next hour or so

[anley] 15/1/2018 10:16

This share will take off when the research results are know on the crop growing plans currently been done in far off places where the stuff is needed.

No need to chase these shares as it is one to buy on dips...........

[johnwise] 12/1/2018 20:25

VIDEO

Sirius Minerals

Published on 12 Jan 2018

2017: Sirius Minerals year in review

Video

[johnwise] 12/1/2018 20:25

VIDEO

Sirius Minerals

Published on 12 Jan 2018

2017: Sirius Minerals year in review

Video

[johnwise] 12/1/2018 20:12

Many positives in Sirius Minerals' latest update say brokers

15:12 12 Jan 2018

More offtake deals will be a material share price catalyst for the York Potash project developer believes Liberum

irius Minerals PLC’s (LON:SXX) first quarter update' contained a number of positives, according to analysts at brokers Liberum and Shore Capital.

Richard Knights, at Liberum, notes that the fertiliser group is targeting a further 1.7mt of offtake deals by mid-year (to add to the 4.3mt already agreed), a total he thought might take longer to achieve.

Agreeing offtake deals on this scale would be a material share price catalyst for the York Potash project developer, believes Knights.

Delivery of the stage 2 financing, meanwhile, is still being targeted for the second half of 2018 and though D-walling work is around two months behind schedule, Sirius is confident it can make up the time lost.

Signing of the shaft sinking contract, which was expected by the end of 2017, is a priority but still not imminently on the critical path said Knights, who maintained a ‘buy’ recommendation and 60p target price.

Yuen Low, at Shore Capital, says the fact that the huge and complex engineering project is on time and on budget were the key messages from the update.

For the next round of financing, US$2.6bn to build the shafts and a 23-mile tunnel to the River Tees, the company is confident that it will have all the requisite ducks in a row by mid-2018 or earlier thereby enabling debt commitment during H2 2018.

These include finalising procurement and securing the take-or-pay/offtake volumes “on the right terms”, Low added.

While still some years from a becoming a cash flow-generating company, Sirius should become progressively de-risked andd and enjoy a significant value uplift as it advances towards production.

Shore Cap has a target range of 65p-82.5p post the state two funding.

Shares eased 3% to 23.1p valuing Sirius at £1.07bn.

[johnwise] 12/1/2018 20:11

Many positives in Sirius Minerals' latest update say brokers

15:12 12 Jan 2018

More offtake deals will be a material share price catalyst for the York Potash project developer believes Liberum

irius Minerals PLC’s (LON:SXX) first quarter update' contained a number of positives, according to analysts at brokers Liberum and Shore Capital.

Richard Knights, at Liberum, notes that the fertiliser group is targeting a further 1.7mt of offtake deals by mid-year (to add to the 4.3mt already agreed), a total he thought might take longer to achieve.

Agreeing offtake deals on this scale would be a material share price catalyst for the York Potash project developer, believes Knights.

Delivery of the stage 2 financing, meanwhile, is still being targeted for the second half of 2018 and though D-walling work is around two months behind schedule, Sirius is confident it can make up the time lost.

Signing of the shaft sinking contract, which was expected by the end of 2017, is a priority but still not imminently on the critical path said Knights, who maintained a ‘buy’ recommendation and 60p target price.

Yuen Low, at Shore Capital, says the fact that the huge and complex engineering project is on time and on budget were the key messages from the update.

For the next round of financing, US$2.6bn to build the shafts and a 23-mile tunnel to the River Tees, the company is confident that it will have all the requisite ducks in a row by mid-2018 or earlier thereby enabling debt commitment during H2 2018.

These include finalising procurement and securing the take-or-pay/offtake volumes “on the right terms”, Low added.

While still some years from a becoming a cash flow-generating company, Sirius should become progressively de-risked andd and enjoy a significant value uplift as it advances towards production.

Shore Cap has a target range of 65p-82.5p post the state two funding.

Shares eased 3% to 23.1p valuing Sirius at £1.07bn.

[spirito] 12/1/2018 17:59

Nice blue day Carla!

[chrisatbirdies] 12/1/2018 16:56

Is this de-ramp central lol.patience is all you need.i hope their aren't any private investors listening to this nonsense.

[11_percent] 12/1/2018 16:10

DOW flying again......hope you are all in.