Sirius Minerals Share Discussion Threads

[runthejoules] 21/12/2017 11:57

This rise is occurring because I sold out a couple of days ago :-(

[bus_ter] 21/12/2017 11:23

Lots of shorts being closed. Any news or something happened?

[ppvn] 21/12/2017 11:11

Hello, no problem for the post. It’s boring waiting for shares to move, but hopefully it’s pretty clear why the share is boring for the moment – as ever my only motivation for posting is to help others make more informed investment decisions. Everything in my posts is public information and I would urge anyone looking to make investment decisions to check and double check any and all of the content, should my comments have any impact on your thoughts toward this share. I don’t believe that share discussion sites will have any impact on shares, with the exception of course being tiny market cap companies etc. More sophisticated investors know exactly how and why this share is moving the way it is, and they will be the ones pulling the shareprice up or down. Whilst flattering, my comments yesterday had no effect. Our shareprice being below 22.95p has the effect; as I mentioned there are currently 264mm shares sold short on Sirius and these sellers will buy back in the open market somewhere below that price – so I can be reasonably confident that at or around this level there will be buyers emerging. We are still only trading in very slim volumes; so honestly the price could happily go down or up from here. I personally think it more likely to rise, for the reasons I’ve outlined.
Pr100 – I’m not saying the 818mm shares aren’t hedged; they don’t exist yet. These shares will come into existence under the assumption that our convertible loan note holders sell them at a price higher than 22.95p (will be quite a way above that mark because as I noted the bonds are trading at a 20% premium to par). When our convertible bonds were issued, the holders of these bonds receive an 8.5% coupon until maturity in 2023. Each single bond represents 650,195 shares – so if our shareprice becomes (for example) 30p, that particular bond is worth £195,058, or $260,949. They currently trade at $120.65, which implies a current value for each bond of $241,300 – so in this example it can be seen that assuming the bondholder can sell 650,195 shares @ 30p, they will do so to make a $19,649 profit over the market value. Once they have sold their shares they will simply convert the bond to equity and close their short position from that receipt of shares. Simple! Interestingly, this also means that the breakeven for funds to sell shares at this moment is 27.7p – but they are still selling small quantities each month as can be seen from their filings. I don’t know their strategies, but what I would assume is that as they were sellers throughout the summer months when our shareprice was significantly higher so are handsomely in profit on their current short positions. Somewhere below the 22.95p mark they (I would assume) will buyback the shares in the open market since this is cheaper than their conversion price on the bonds, the 264mm short position will reduce, but our shareprice will rise, and the roundabout will continue. This is why our shareprice isn’t really going anywhere fast anytime soon (and by anywhere I mean between around this level, the 22p or so, up to around 35p that we hit in the summer).
My personal opinion of this share is that it should provide in the next few years (5-10 year timeline) around a 10x return, with dividends eventually equalling and indeed exceeding our current shareprice, assuming stg2 finance is achieved by debt finance. Anyone who has done the mathematics around our forecast production levels and profitability will know this. I don’t have the time to trade much and I’m not that interested in fast returns which was why I had no interest in selling above 30p. As I said back in May, should a large investor decide to buy a stake in Sirius, the shareprice will rise rapidly and the current value of the outstanding bonds is only just around $230mm. It’s not beyond the realms of possibility that this should occur – and I’d much rather be in than out. I’m not here for a 100% rise – add a zero please.
And finally Casapinos! Hello I've just this minute seen your post. Apologies but I must dash for a little while, will clarify any unclear points, hopefully later on today. Hope you are well.

[casapinos] 21/12/2017 10:44

Hi PPVN nice to see you back -we've missed you !
Yet again the little swot at the front of the class has his hand up saying"please sir...please sir?"
First obvious question.You say "funds are still selling shares which is an overall positive for us"on the face of it that is counter-intuitive, but clearly you mean , converting and selling so gradually clearing the debt ,yes?
Can you tell whether the pattern of selling was brisk into the June share price spike and slower recently?ie do we need a further share price rise to clear the rump ?Are you still sanguine that the convi's will all clear in the next 12 months?
That the bond trades at $120 suggests more buyers than sellers but presumably not enough that existing holders could sell the bonds, pocket the 20% and move on?
In a rising interest rate environment are bondholders likely to roll the position(at lower than planned profits) to another with a higher coupon?
Again thanks for the update, as you are willing to disclose, does that mean that your data is in the public domain and if so where?

[anley] 21/12/2017 10:30

22p to 24p is the buying range for the next month on a drip feed basis.

Do we know who PPVN is?

[bus_ter] 21/12/2017 09:36

Lots of buying today. Maybe your words have had an effect PPVN?!

[eurofox] 20/12/2017 19:20

still on track to 17p

[coolhandfluke] 20/12/2017 18:55

PPVN Have you checked out IQE? Disappointing day following a reasonable update but the future looks extremely strong. Less risk than Sirius as they are selling, profitable, growing fast. Already up 300 percent this year but I hold as another 5-10 bagger from today's price.

[dp1umb] 20/12/2017 17:22

PPVN no my post wasn’t a response to your very in-depth and informative post but a response to the previous poster, but I would say that momentum in a share price can be much more important than fundamentals .

[pr100] 20/12/2017 16:43

PPVN, thanks for an interesting post. Are you saying that 818m shares aren't hedged? Surely these guys will get their money back even if the share price falls below 20p?

[carla1] 20/12/2017 14:32

PPVN... amazing informative post ...Thank you... in summary take advantage of current weakness

[mr.oz] 20/12/2017 14:03

that's some post , PPVN . thanks.

Keep us up to speed with those convertibles please

[dp1umb] 20/12/2017 13:37

It’s you are right up to a point , but you will always get ebbs and flows which then build or loose momentum so at the moment SSX has negative momentum as you all can see. But your talking about fundamentals which are hard to factor in on a early stage mining company hence the swings in the share price.

[ppvn] 20/12/2017 13:32

Hello All, thought I would put down a couple of notes since my previous missives with regard to this share. To be honest, its done pretty much exactly what was to be expected back in May, and as we ease ourselves into the New Year thought I would share a few progress points to summarise where we are financially speaking. I’m still extremely excited about the prospects for this company and I maintain my full holding (and have added modestly) that was established around a year ago.
The key driver of our shareprice at this time is our convertible loan notes, as they have been since the stg1 financing was completed. Market volumes have reduced significantly over the past year, which has meant slippage of the timeframe in terms of disposing of these. As we head through December, funds are still selling shares which is an overall positive for us, simply because we need to turn over the 1.3bn shares that will be issued from the $400mm bond issue. Where we stand currently is that from the total of 1,300,390,029 shares that are to be issued from these loan notes, 335 have been converted into equity, representing 217,815,330 shares, funds that hold these bonds are currently short Sirius shares to a total of 264,215,817 shares (implying a further conversion of 406 bonds) taking us to a total of 1,259 bonds (or 818,358,882 shares) left to sell - 63% approx. of the initial $400m offering. Whilst market volumes for this share have dwindled significantly since the summer it was heartening to see a further 750k TPA offtake agreement was signed back in October which will help get the (proposed) debt finance in place. By my count we have 4.35MTPA offtake agreements in place now so around 2.65MTPA to go until the primary conditions for debt financing of Stage 2 are in place; not bad at all. My view is that the closer we edge toward this milestone the more this share will start to churn; once the remaining convertible note shares are sold the brakes should come off frankly and we should see a significantly higher shareprice almost immediately. Ironically, since the last time I wrote, cable has strengthened notably versus USD. The effect of this is to actually reduce the breakeven price of funds selling shares in Sirius by around 10%; back in May the breakeven price for them to sell was around 24.6p, with the FX move the current conversion price is 22.95p ($0.3076 being the magic number). For those that are interested, our bonds are actually trading at $120.65 at the moment (on a par value of $100). This should give heart to anyone concerned about the current low price of our shares – tension usually shows in the debt side first so we are doing just fine. Currently this is a really good opportunity to pick these shares up at a very fair price which I have been doing now and then. I’m regularly trying to find another share that can offer as much upside as Sirius over the next few years and I haven’t been able to. I’m extremely excited about the prospects for this company and will continue to be an enthusiastic, if relatively silent, holder. If anyone has any interesting comments or observations, as ever it would be interesting to hear – as predicted it’s just a waiting game. But it should be well worth it in the end.

[not my real name] 20/12/2017 13:09

dp1umb,

Play nicely. As the other Holder would say, it's Chriiiiiistmaaaaas!

NMRN

[dp1umb] 20/12/2017 10:53

What not the 40p ones but the 22p ones?

[carla1] 19/12/2017 22:02

Real ones !!

[carla1] 19/12/2017 22:02

Looking to put another tranche in ... Good luck all

[ccr1958] 19/12/2017 18:04

Looking over sold ?

[dp1umb] 19/12/2017 17:47

But then again I can’t see John ,Carla ,Boris,
Richard,Cristopher, Et al . Maybe there be back in the spring ?or jumped on the Bitcoin rocket now that would be a result.

[dp1umb] 19/12/2017 17:44

Can’t see 17p

[eurofox] 19/12/2017 16:45

still on track to 17p