Sirius Minerals Share Discussion Threads

[11_percent] 30/12/2017 21:38

Guess the SXX share price at the end of 2017. (Deadline for entries/changes 31 Jan 2017)

So far:

GilScottHeron........... 78
Svenice7................ 70
come on................. 48.5
Prof Pettigrew.......... 41
carla1.................. 40
mr.oz................... 36
trafid.................. 32.75
dp1umb...................32
plastow..................27.75
y1phr1.................. 26
longshanks...............25.75
11%..................... 25
James_Jones..............24.3
nicksig................. 20
Not My Real Name........ 18.75
deanroberthunt...........10

If we take 23.5p as the close, James-Jones takes it 24.3p.

[11_percent] 30/12/2017 21:26

So, who won the contest.

[johnwise] 29/12/2017 08:13

Sirius plan to use three of these machines for the tunnel from the mine to export from TeesPort

TBM/Tunneling Video


MAKING TEES THE FIRST PORT OF CALL

PD Ports CEO David Robinson sets sail with Paul Robertson to showcase the huge investment at Teesport and to explain how it rides the economic waves.

Only by taking a boat to the middle of the river can you really capture the scale of the Teesport operation. Huge warehouses and storage facilities, giant container ships and impressive cranes don’t tell half the story of this major piece of infrastructure with the River Tees at its heart.

Hundreds of millions of pounds is being invested

[johnwise] 28/12/2017 18:18

Sirius plan to use three of these machines for the tunnel from the mine to export from TeesPort

TBM/Tunneling Video


MAKING TEES THE FIRST PORT OF CALL

PD Ports CEO David Robinson sets sail with Paul Robertson to showcase the huge investment at Teesport and to explain how it rides the economic waves.

Only by taking a boat to the middle of the river can you really capture the scale of the Teesport operation. Huge warehouses and storage facilities, giant container ships and impressive cranes don’t tell half the story of this major piece of infrastructure with the River Tees at its heart.

Hundreds of millions of pounds is being invested

[johnwise] 28/12/2017 18:03

10:00 28 Dec 2017

Liberum reckons the stock is worth 60p, which would value the business at almost £2.7bn, while Shore Capital sits at the top of the range at 65p, or 82.5p once the second round of funding is complete.

[2vdm] 28/12/2017 16:59

Write up in Pro-Active Investors today. Here's the link.
[...]

[phowdo] 28/12/2017 10:47

Bob, try BTC

[bob f2] 28/12/2017 10:32

OFF subject, sorry

Anyone know of a code to get onto a Bitcoin BB here?

I'm sure I used to read one on ADVFN

[not my real name] 27/12/2017 20:28

Next RNS is due week commencing 8 Jan whether the ducks are in a row or not! Dates were announced a year ago!

NMRN

[gowski] 27/12/2017 18:40

Topped up. RNS's are usually timed well with all the ducks in a row IMHO

[runthejoules] 21/12/2017 19:02

Thanks PPVN! I wish you'd posted all this before I sold out a couple of days ago! (Completely my own fault though). Don't be shy, post as much as you like, nice to have someone who knows what they're talking about on here rather than 11%'s incoherence. He may know what he's doing, just would be nice if he shared it politely.

[ppvn] 21/12/2017 16:44

Q: Where is this material found?” A: All this info is public – the terms of the bond are available in the prospectus (you just need to input the share nominal and do a few calculations – i.e. that one bond is $200k with the conversion strike set at $0.3076 thus equalling 650,195 shares – from there you can just do the FXs etc), short positions are disclosed, amongst other places, here: hxxps://shorttracker.co.uk/company/GB00B0DG3H29/, etc. If there are any specifics you need pointers on which stone to turn let me know and I’m happy to point you in the right direction.

[ppvn] 21/12/2017 16:44

Q: “In a rising interest rate environment are bondholders likely to roll the position (at lower than planned profits) to another with a higher coupon?” A: With regard to us being in a rising interest environment, I would argue we are in no such thing… yet. The world is indeed changing, and money is beginning to have a price again. My views on this are something too boring to be discussed here, but we will have an impact and suffice to say I believe the days of passive investment being the “go to” strategy are dwindling. At an 8.5% coupon and unsecured, unrated bond I’d say our investors have a pretty high risk tolerance – 25bp increases here and there isn’t going to influence their investment here!

[ppvn] 21/12/2017 16:43

Q: “That the bond trades at $120 suggests more buyers than sellers but presumably not enough that existing holders could sell the bonds, pocket the 20% and move on?” A: With regard to our bonds trading at $120.65, this is the secondary market price for them currently and if you want to look them up they trade under ISIN XS1515223516. I’m sure some holders have sold some along the way – they peaked at around $151 back in June. This doesn’t however mean they cease to exist – just that someone else will become a seller of equity above a certain price. They are unsecured debt (hence high coupon), and have a 15% clean up call – what that means is if 85% are converted into shares, Sirius can call the bonds and within a month or so they will be redeemed at par ($100) – so basically any remaining bonds will be converted to equity assuming our share price is <$0.3076. As we discussed in May, Sirius also have a call option should the value exceed $350k per bond, implying a share price of $0.5383 (£0.403 at current FX) which does cap the potential upside for holders of our bonds.

[ppvn] 21/12/2017 16:43

Q: “Are you still sanguine that the convi’s will be all clear in the next 12 months?” A: I’d love to say I’m sanguine that all the convertibles will be clear in the next 12 months. I’m 75% sure they should be, simply because stg2 finance is slated for q4 2018 and that will for sure move our share price up by a long way.

[ppvn] 21/12/2017 16:43

Q: “Can you tell whether the pattern of selling was brisk into the June share price spike and slower recently? I.e. do we need a further share price rise to clear the rump?” A: The reason why funds were able to sell so many shares throughout the summer is that it’s usually possible to sell around 10% of the average market volume in a day without negatively affecting the shareprice. As I’ve noted, these funds are invested in Sirius so them selling short is nothing for us to fear. They will make more money with a higher shareprice, so don’t want to negatively affect it. However, in order to profit from a higher shareprice, they need market volume to sell shares, which at this time is something we don’t have in our favour. Things I think that will drive market volume is as I’ve noted, either progress on the mine (small impact on vols IMO), offtake agreements (will have much larger impact on vols) etc. The reason I believe that offtake agreements will have the most impact is that Stage 2 finance is proposed as debt, but the requirement is that we have in place offtake agreements for 7MTPA, which we are currently short of. When Stg2 is announced, it should take our market cap almost immediately up to around the £2.5-£3bn mark, simply because we will then be in a position to build the mine and produce significant quantities of Poly4 (barring issues with construction). At that market cap, its just stg1 and stg2 finance availability in terms of price, so will still be very cheap. Once the debt financing piece looks likely (i.e. more offtake agreements), I believe that is when larger funds will begin buying in earnest. It’s still a big unknown at this point, but I’m confident enough to take a bit of a gamble that Sirius will be able to meet the 7MTPA milestone.

[ppvn] 21/12/2017 16:42

Hi, sorry for the long and previously difficult to decipher messages. And sorry for me about to hog the board, it isn't deliberate and I won't be around frequently, though I'll continue to hold. OK - made an attempt to post in readable paragraphs (the previous post was an attempt to respond to Casapinos, who I was discussing this share with previously in May). Here goes then...

[runthejoules] 21/12/2017 16:04

PPVN, do you think you could please edit / repost your posts into paragraphs?

You're a market mover mate, but very difficult to read!

[ppvn] 21/12/2017 14:50

(cont'd)...When Stg2 is announced, it should take our market cap almost immediately up to around the £2.5-£3bn mark, simply because we will then be in a position to build the mine and produce significant quantities of Poly4 (barring issues with construction). At that market cap, its just stg1 and stg2 finance availability in terms of price, so will still be very cheap. Once the debt financing piece looks likely (i.e. more offtake agreements), I believe that is when larger funds will begin buying in earnest. It’s still a big unknown at this point, but I’m confident enough to take a bit of a gamble that Sirius will be able to meet the 7MTPA milestone. I’d love to say I’m sanguine that all the convertibles will be clear in the next 12 months. I’m 75% sure they should be, simply because stg2 finance is slated for q4 2018 and that will for sure move our share price up by a long way. With regard to our bonds trading at $120.65, this is the secondary market price for them currently and if you want to look them up they trade under ISIN XS1515223516. I’m sure some holders have sold some along the way – they peaked at around $151 back in June. This doesn’t however mean they cease to exist – just that someone else will become a seller of equity above a certain price. They are unsecured debt (hence high coupon), and have a 15% clean up call – what that means is if 85% are converted into shares, Sirius can call the bonds and within a month or so they will be redeemed at par ($100) – so basically any remaining bonds will be converted to equity assuming our share price is <$0.3076. As we discussed in May, Sirius also have a call option should the value exceed $350k per bond, implying a share price of $0.5383 (£0.403 at current FX) which does cap the potential upside for holders of our bonds. With regard to us being in a rising interest environment, I would argue we are in no such thing… yet. The world is indeed changing, and money is beginning to have a price again. My views on this are something too boring to be discussed here, but we will have an impact and suffice to say I believe the days of passive investment being the “go to” strategy are dwindling. At an 8.5% coupon and unsecured, unrated bond I’d say our investors have a pretty high risk tolerance – 25bp increases here and there isn’t going to influence their investment here! All this info is public – the terms of the bond are available in the prospectus (you just need to input the share nominal and do a few calculations – i.e. that one bond is $200k with the conversion strike set at $0.3076 thus equalling 650,195 shares – from there you can just do the FXs etc), short positions are disclosed, amongst other places, here: hxxps://shorttracker.co.uk/company/GB00B0DG3H29/, etc. If there are any specifics you need pointers on which stone to turn let me know and I’m happy to point you in the right direction.

[not my real name] 21/12/2017 12:01

"Lots of shorts being closed."

Absolutely no reason to assume shorts are being closed. Less than 3m traded with buys exceeding sells ergo the price goes up. That is how the market works.

NMRN

[the explorer] 21/12/2017 12:01

There's only been 3.5m shares traded in 4 hours so still low volume. It's still nice to see a change in direction for the sp, let's see if it's sustainable.